Is Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX) undervalued or overvalued?

Our model estimates a fair value of about $238 against a price of $639.01 (Overvalued, -63% to fair value). It blends a 10-year DCF, sector multiples and earnings-power value and is a model estimate, not advice.

What is the X-Ray Score for STX?

Seagate Technology Holdings plc has an X-Ray Score of 54 out of 100, built from valuation, growth, profitability, financial health and dividend lenses ranked against Information Technology peers.

Where does the data for STX come from?

Financial statements come from SEC EDGAR filings, prices from exchange price feeds, and industry betas and equity risk premium from Damodaran Online (NYU Stern).

Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX)

Information Technology · Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals · US stock · S&P 500 component

$639.01 ▼ -51.80 (7.50%)

At close 16 Oct 2026 · USD · Volume 6,095,300

Compare with SNDK Historical data Research report SEC filings

Fair valueOvervalued

$238 −62.8% to fair value

$119fair band $143–$333$357

Day's range

$636.36 – $683.48

52-week range

$207.78 – $1,143.27

Red flags⚠ Heavy dilution

About Seagate Technology Holdings plc

Seagate Technology designs and manufactures data storage products, mainly hard disk drives used in data centers, personal computers, surveillance systems and consumer devices. Large cloud companies are among its important customers because they store vast amounts of data. The company earns money by selling drives, and results depend on demand for storage capacity, pricing, product mix and the success of higher capacity technologies it develops.

Revenue for the last twelve months was $12.2 billion, and it grew by 18.2% a year over three years. The operating margin is 33.6%, and return on invested capital reached 81%. Net debt to EBITDA is 0.5 times. It pays a dividend with a yield of 0.5%. Its X-Ray Score is 58 out of 100. These figures describe past results and say nothing certain about the future.

Written with AI from public information and the filing figures on this page, then checked automatically for unsupported numbers. It can contain mistakes: read the company's own filings below before relying on it.

Price chart

Historical data & CSV

52-wk range $207.78 – $1,143.27Volume 6,095,300Daily, split-adjusted

Vitals

Market cap$146.3B

52-week range$207.78 – $1,143.27

Volume (last day)6,095,300

P/E (TTM)45.8

EBIT / EV yield2.8%

Free-cash-flow yield2.1%

Dividend yield0.5%

Revenue (TTM)$12.2B

Net income (TTM)$3.2B

Operating margin33.6%

Return on capital81.0%

Debt incl. leases$3.9B

Cash & securities$1.7B

Debt = borrowings plus lease liabilities. Cash & securities = cash, equivalents and short-term marketable securities (long-term securities are not counted, so net cash can be understated for companies like Apple). Net debt = debt minus cash & securities. Source: latest SEC 10-Q/10-K. EBIT / EV yield = operating profit divided by market cap plus net debt.

Fair value estimate

$238model spread $226 – $249

Overvalued −62.8% to fair value

Equal blend of three models: peer multiples, a fundamentals-adjusted multiple (growth, ROIC and margin) and a 10-year DCF scaled to the market's average. Earnings-power value (no growth) is a floor and not part of the blend. Model uncertainty is High, so the safety margin is 40%.

Multiples use through-the-cycle earnings (0.42x of the last twelve months)

Peak-cycle earnings: the current operating margin is more than 1.5x its 7-year average, so the fair value range is widened

Price $639

Undervalued < $143Fair $143 – $333Overvalued > $333

10-year DCF (market-scaled)

$312

Peer multiples

$202

Earnings power floor (not blended)

$54

Fundamentals-adjusted multiple

$200

Growth the price implies

27.2%/yr

A model estimate, not a price target or recommendation. Inputs: risk-free 5.09%, equity risk premium 4.23% (Damodaran). How it works.

What this means

Average business, priced high

Our models put fair value below today's price, so a lot of good news may already be in the price. A high score does not guarantee a good outcome; it shifts the odds a little. Use the checklist as a prompt for your own research.

Before you invest · decision checklist

I understand how this company makes money Business quality is average or better ✓ 64 The price is not above fair value $238 fair value Debt looks manageable 0.5× EBITDA Revenue has been growing 18.2% a year Profits are backed by cash There are no red flags 1 raised I know what share of my savings this would be

Ticked boxes are filled in from our data; the rest are yours to answer.

The five-lens scan

Every score explained in one sentence, ranked against Information Technology peers. Open a lens to see the numbers behind it.

Valuation Weak

28/100

Expensive against its sector on earnings and cash flow.

See the numbers →

EBIT / EV yield2.8%

Free-cash-flow yield2.1%

Fair value vs price0.4×

Growth Strong

75/100

Growing faster than most of its sector.

See the numbers →

Revenue growth (3y)18.2%

Growth consistency90%

Profitability Fair

67/100

Returns on capital are typical for its sector.

See the numbers →

Return on invested capital81.0%

Operating margin33.6%

Gross profitability55.7%

Financial health Fair

61/100

Balance sheet is in typical shape for its sector.

See the numbers →

Piotroski F-Score8 / 9

Net debt / EBITDA0.5×

Interest cover14.4×

Dividends Weak

36/100

Dividend is modest or less certain than peers.

See the numbers →

Dividend yield0.5%

Dividends vs free cash flow22%

Dividend growth2.9%

Quarterly results: last 6 quarters

+30.5%

Mar '25

+29.5%

Jun '25

+21.3%

Oct '25

+21.5%

Jan '26

+44.1%

Apr '26

+48.5%

Jul '26

Revenue against the same quarter a year earlier. Latest quarter revenue $3.6B.

Compare with peers

SNDK Sandisk Corp77 NTAP NetApp, Inc.62 AAPL Apple Inc.55 WDC Western Digital Corp55

Other Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals companies by X-Ray Score.

Fundamentals checklist

● 6 Good · ● 7 Average · ● 2 Bad

Cash quality

Earnings backed by cashAverage

Free-cash-flow yieldBad

Risk models

Altman Z''Average

Piotroski F-ScoreGood

Growth

Free-cash-flow growth (3y)Good

Revenue growth (3y)Good

Growth consistencyAverage

Balance sheet

Current ratioAverage

Net debt / EBITDAAverage

Interest coverAverage

Valuation

Fair value vs priceBad

EBIT / EV yieldAverage

Profitability

Return on invested capitalGood

Operating marginGood

Gross profitabilityGood

Each check is graded against the company's sector, not a fixed number. Checklist score 59/100.

Financials

	FY22	FY23	FY24	FY25	FY26
Revenue	$11.7B	$7.4B	$6.6B	$9.1B	$12.2B
Operating income	$2.0B	−$342M	$452M	$1.9B	$4.1B
Net income	$1.6B	−$529M	$335M	$1.5B	$3.2B
Operating cash flow	$1.7B	$942M	$918M	$1.1B	$3.7B
Operating margin	16.8%	-4.6%	6.9%	20.8%	33.6%
Free cash flow	$1.3B	$626M	$664M	$818M	$3.1B
Diluted EPS	$7.36	$-2.56	$1.58	$6.77	$13.90

Fiscal years, from SEC filings.

Technical summary

Daily

Bearish

4 bullish · 0 neutral · 12 bearish

Weekly

Neutral

5 bullish · 1 neutral · 6 bearish

Monthly

Bullish

5 bullish · 1 neutral · 2 bearish

Moving averages (daily)

SMA 10	760.2	Bearish
EMA 10	748.4	Bearish
SMA 20	834.8	Bearish
EMA 20	793.1	Bearish
SMA 50	841.2	Bearish
EMA 50	826.1	Bearish
SMA 100	866.8	Bearish
EMA 100	802.0	Bearish
SMA 200	673.5	Bearish
EMA 200	688.7	Bearish

Oscillators (daily)

RSI (14)	27.57	Bullish
MACD (12, 26)	-44.72	Bearish
Momentum (12)	-30.72	Bearish
Stochastic %K (14)	0.85	Bullish
Williams %R (14)	-99.15	Bullish
CCI (20)	-156.6	Bullish

Pivot points (classic, last session)

575.3

605.8

622.4

Pivot

653.0

669.5

700.1

716.7

Signals describe what the chart is doing, not what to do. Moving averages: price above the average is bullish. Oscillators use the usual thresholds (RSI 30/70, Stochastic 20/80, CCI ±100, Williams %R −80/−20; MACD and momentum above zero are bullish). Weekly and monthly views use closing prices only.

Dividends

Paid, last 12 months

2.96 USD

Yield on today's price

0.46%

Frequency

Quarterly

Next ex-dividend date

Not announced

Ex-dividend date	Amount per share
24 Sep 2026	0.7400
24 Jun 2026	0.7400
25 Mar 2026	0.7400
24 Dec 2025	0.7400
30 Sep 2025	0.7200
25 Jun 2025	0.7200
19 Mar 2025	0.7200
13 Dec 2024	0.7200
23 Sep 2024	0.7000
20 Jun 2024	0.7000
20 Mar 2024	0.7000
20 Dec 2023	0.7000