Argentina: economy, interest rate and stock market
Inflation was 219.9% in 2024 and GDP grew 4.4% (World Bank). S&P Merval is +0.0% over the past year.
Interest rate
We do not have a current policy rate for Argentina. The Bank for International Settlements does not publish one for it, and we have not yet added it by hand. See all central bank rates.
Stock market: S&P Merval
| Level | 1M | 3M | YTD | 1Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1,000,000.00 | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% |
Closing level on 16 Oct 2026. "vs 200-day avg" is how far the index is above or below its own average of the last 200 closes; "from 52-week high" is the drop from its highest level of the past year. Both are arithmetic on our price history, not a forecast.
Risk-on or risk-off?
Mixed 2 of 5 price checks on S&P Merval are positive, as of 16 Oct 2026.
| Check | Reading today | Positive? |
|---|---|---|
| Index above its 200-day average | +0.0% vs average | No |
| 50-day average above the 200-day average | +0.0% | No |
| 3-month return positive | +0.0% | No |
| Within 10% of the 52-week high | 0.0% from high | Yes |
| Volatility at or below its own 1-year median | 20-day 0% vs median 0% (annualised) | Yes |
4 or 5 positive = Risk-on, 2 or 3 = Mixed, 0 or 1 = Risk-off. Each check uses only prices up to that day, so the same rule can be run on history (below). It describes how investors are behaving in this market, not what happens next.
- Global risk gauge (Market Compass): Risk-on, 1 of 7 warning signals on.
- Breadth: 54% of Argentina's stocks are above their own 200-day average.
- Oil is up 29% in three months, but fuel is a small net item in Argentina's trade, so the direct effect is limited.
| Strategy | Return a year | Worst fall |
|---|---|---|
| Buy and hold the index | 35.9% | −64.7% |
| Hold only when not Risk-off (2+ checks) | 27.5% | −62.0% |
| Hold only when Risk-on (4+ checks) | 18.8% | −58.7% |
The position is decided at one day's close and applied to the next day's return, so the rule never uses the future. Time out of the market earns nothing here. Limits: index price only (no dividends, no interest on cash), no trading costs or taxes, one market and one period, and a rule that did well or badly in the past can do the opposite next time. Hypothetical results, not a promise and not advice.
Stocks that fit the current setting
Mixed setting: the screen looks for the best momentum per unit of volatility among stocks trading above their 200-day average. Chosen from the 154 most traded stocks in Argentina, using prices up to 16 Oct 2026.
| Stock | Price | 3M |
|---|---|---|
| AMD Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. | ARS 85,750.00 | +7.9% |
| BB BlackBerry Limited | ARS 4,317.50 | −6.4% |
| AMDD Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. | USD 55.60 | +5.5% |
| NUE Nucor Corp | ARS 25,900.00 | +14.7% |
| GARO Garovaglio y Zorraquin S.A. | ARS 380.00 | −20.8% |
| TXR Ternium SA DRC | ARS 23,060.00 | +32.1% |
| INTC Intel Corp. CEDEAR | ARS 29,080.00 | −5.0% |
| AAPL Apple Inc DRC | ARS 27,800.00 | +8.2% |
| SNOW Snowflake Inc. | ARS 16,510.00 | +14.9% |
| QQQ Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 | ARS 57,575.00 | +5.1% |
These are candidates to research, not recommendations. The screen reads prices only: it knows nothing about the companies' earnings, debt or valuation, and a stock can fit the setting and still fall. Momentum screens tend to pick volatile stocks, so check the Volatility column. We cannot yet test this screen fairly on the past, because our price history only contains companies that are listed today, which flatters any screen. So instead of showing a backtest we record each day's picks and will judge the rule on what happens after the fact. Educational only, not financial advice.
Economy at a glance
| Measure | Latest | Year |
|---|---|---|
| Economy size (GDP) | $683.1 billion | 2025 |
| GDP per person | $14,898 | 2025 |
| GDP growth | 4.4% | 2025 |
| Inflation (consumer prices) | 219.9% | 2024 |
| Unemployment | 7.1% | 2025 |
| Population | 45.9 million | 2025 |
| Current account balance, % of GDP | -1.1% | 2025 |
| Exports of goods and services, % of GDP | 15.6% | 2025 |
| Imports of goods and services, % of GDP | 14.8% | 2025 |
Source: World Bank World Development Indicators, annual figures. The latest year is usually the previous calendar year, so these numbers are not live and are revised later by the World Bank.
Trade structure
Share of merchandise exports and imports by product group. ■ exports ■ imports.
High-technology products are 3.9% of manufactured exports (2024).
- Fuels are 9.1% of merchandise exports and 4.0% of imports, so energy prices are not the main swing factor in its trade.
- Food is 50.1% of merchandise exports: crop and food prices, and the weather behind them, matter for export income.
- Exports plus imports equal 30% of GDP, so the economy is mostly driven by domestic demand, with trade a smaller share.
- The current account was a deficit of 1.1% of GDP (2025): the country spends more abroad than it earns and relies on foreign capital to fill the gap.
These describe the structure of trade, using the figures above. They are not forecasts and not investment advice. Latest available year differs by group (usually 2024 or 2025).
More on Argentina
Sources: Bank for International Settlements and central bank decisions (policy rates), World Bank (economy and trade), StocksXray price history (index). Educational only, not financial advice.