Hungary: economy, interest rate and stock market

5.50%   set by Hungarian National Bank. Last change: −0.25 pt on 26 Aug 2026. Over 12 months: −1.00 pt. As of 7 Oct 2026.

All countries: central bank interest rates. Rates move stocks through borrowing costs and the currency: rising rates usually weigh on rate-sensitive stocks and help banks, falling rates the opposite.

Risk-on   4 of 5 price checks on BUX Budapest are positive, as of 16 Oct 2026.

4 or 5 positive = Risk-on, 2 or 3 = Mixed, 0 or 1 = Risk-off. Each check uses only prices up to that day, so the same rule can be run on history (below). It describes how investors are behaving in this market, not what happens next.

Context (not part of the score)

• Global risk gauge (Market Compass): Risk-on, 1 of 7 warning signals on.
• Breadth: 35% of Hungary's stocks are above their own 200-day average.
• Oil is up 29% in three months, but fuel is a small net item in Hungary's trade, so the direct effect is limited.
• The central bank has cut its rate by 1.00 points over twelve months. Easing supports borrowing and stock valuations, and can squeeze bank margins.

How the rule would have done on the index, 2000-10-13 to 2026-10-16 (25.7 years)

The position is decided at one day's close and applied to the next day's return, so the rule never uses the future. Time out of the market earns nothing here. Limits: index price only (no dividends, no interest on cash), no trading costs or taxes, one market and one period, and a rule that did well or badly in the past can do the opposite next time. Hypothetical results, not a promise and not advice.

Risk-on setting: the screen looks for the strongest price momentum over the last six months (skipping the latest month) among stocks trading above their 200-day average. Chosen from the 30 most traded stocks in Hungary, using prices up to 16 Oct 2026.

These are candidates to research, not recommendations. The screen reads prices only: it knows nothing about the companies' earnings, debt or valuation, and a stock can fit the setting and still fall. Momentum screens tend to pick volatile stocks, so check the Volatility column. We cannot yet test this screen fairly on the past, because our price history only contains companies that are listed today, which flatters any screen. So instead of showing a backtest we record each day's picks and will judge the rule on what happens after the fact. Educational only, not financial advice.

Share of merchandise exports and imports by product group. ■ exports   ■ imports.

High-technology products are 22.6% of manufactured exports (2024).

What the trade mix suggests to watch

• Fuels are 4.2% of merchandise exports and 8.7% of imports, so energy prices are not the main swing factor in its trade.
• Manufactured goods are 82.0% of merchandise exports: the economy sells made goods abroad, which ties it to global demand and to its exchange rate.
• High-technology products are 22.6% of manufactured exports (2024), which links trade to the electronics and equipment cycle.
• Exports plus imports equal 141% of GDP, so the economy is very open to trade: global conditions reach it quickly.
• The current account was a surplus of 1.7% of GDP (2025): the country earns more abroad than it spends.

These describe the structure of trade, using the figures above. They are not forecasts and not investment advice. Latest available year differs by group (usually 2024 or 2025).