Iceland: economy, interest rate and stock market
The central bank's policy rate is 8.00% (up 0.50 points over 12 months). Inflation was 4.1% in 2025 and GDP grew 1.3% (World Bank). ICEX Main (Iceland) is −10.0% over the past year.
Interest rate
8.00% set by Central Bank of Iceland. Last change: +0.25 pt on 19 Aug 2026. Over 12 months: +0.50 pt. As of 13 Oct 2026.
| Took effect | Rate | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 19 Aug 2026 | 8.00% | +0.25 pt |
| 20 May 2026 | 7.75% | +0.25 pt |
| 18 Mar 2026 | 7.50% | +0.25 pt |
| 19 Nov 2025 | 7.25% | −0.25 pt |
| 21 May 2025 | 7.50% | −0.25 pt |
| 19 Mar 2025 | 7.75% | −0.25 pt |
| 5 Feb 2025 | 8.00% | −0.50 pt |
| 20 Nov 2024 | 8.50% | −0.50 pt |
| 2 Oct 2024 | 9.00% | start of our data |
All countries: central bank interest rates. Rates move stocks through borrowing costs and the currency: rising rates usually weigh on rate-sensitive stocks and help banks, falling rates the opposite.
Stock market: ICEX Main (Iceland)
| Level | 1M | 3M | YTD | 1Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1,948.81 | −2.7% | −3.8% | −10.4% | −10.0% |
Closing level on 16 Oct 2026. "vs 200-day avg" is how far the index is above or below its own average of the last 200 closes; "from 52-week high" is the drop from its highest level of the past year. Both are arithmetic on our price history, not a forecast.
Risk-on or risk-off?
Risk-off 1 of 5 price checks on ICEX Main (Iceland) are positive, as of 16 Oct 2026.
| Check | Reading today | Positive? |
|---|---|---|
| Index above its 200-day average | -7.0% vs average | No |
| 50-day average above the 200-day average | -2.6% | No |
| 3-month return positive | -3.8% | No |
| Within 10% of the 52-week high | -15.6% from high | No |
| Volatility at or below its own 1-year median | 20-day 12% vs median 13% (annualised) | Yes |
4 or 5 positive = Risk-on, 2 or 3 = Mixed, 0 or 1 = Risk-off. Each check uses only prices up to that day, so the same rule can be run on history (below). It describes how investors are behaving in this market, not what happens next.
- Global risk gauge (Market Compass): Risk-on, 1 of 7 warning signals on.
- Oil is up 29% in three months, but fuel is a small net item in Iceland's trade, so the direct effect is limited.
- The central bank has raised its rate by 0.50 points over twelve months. Tightening usually weighs on rate-sensitive stocks and helps bank margins.
| Strategy | Return a year | Worst fall |
|---|---|---|
| Buy and hold the index | 2.2% | −95.4% |
| Hold only when not Risk-off (2+ checks) | 11.7% | −39.5% |
| Hold only when Risk-on (4+ checks) | 10.5% | −37.6% |
The position is decided at one day's close and applied to the next day's return, so the rule never uses the future. Time out of the market earns nothing here. Limits: index price only (no dividends, no interest on cash), no trading costs or taxes, one market and one period, and a rule that did well or badly in the past can do the opposite next time. Hypothetical results, not a promise and not advice.
Economy at a glance
| Measure | Latest | Year |
|---|---|---|
| Economy size (GDP) | $38.6 billion | 2025 |
| GDP per person | $98,323 | 2025 |
| GDP growth | 1.3% | 2025 |
| Inflation (consumer prices) | 4.1% | 2025 |
| Unemployment | 3.6% | 2025 |
| Population | 0.4 million | 2025 |
| Current account balance, % of GDP | -3.9% | 2025 |
| Central government debt, % of GDP | 80.1% | 2023 |
| Exports of goods and services, % of GDP | 40.1% | 2025 |
| Imports of goods and services, % of GDP | 42.4% | 2025 |
Source: World Bank World Development Indicators, annual figures. The latest year is usually the previous calendar year, so these numbers are not live and are revised later by the World Bank.
Trade structure
Share of merchandise exports and imports by product group. ■ exports ■ imports.
High-technology products are 54.0% of manufactured exports (2024).
- Fuels are 1.5% of merchandise exports and 9.0% of imports, so energy prices are not the main swing factor in its trade.
- Food is 46.9% of merchandise exports: crop and food prices, and the weather behind them, matter for export income.
- Ores and metals are 36.2% of merchandise exports, so metal prices matter for export earnings.
- High-technology products are 54.0% of manufactured exports (2024), which links trade to the electronics and equipment cycle.
- Exports plus imports equal 82% of GDP, so the economy is moderately open to trade.
- The current account was a deficit of 3.9% of GDP (2025): the country spends more abroad than it earns and relies on foreign capital to fill the gap.
These describe the structure of trade, using the figures above. They are not forecasts and not investment advice. Latest available year differs by group (usually 2024 or 2025).
More on Iceland
Sources: Bank for International Settlements and central bank decisions (policy rates), World Bank (economy and trade), StocksXray price history (index). Educational only, not financial advice.