India: economy, interest rate and stock market
The central bank's policy rate is 5.25% (down 0.25 points over 12 months). Inflation was 2.4% in 2025 and GDP grew 7.6% (World Bank). Nifty 50 is −8.1% over the past year.
Interest rate
5.25% set by Reserve Bank of India. Last change: −0.25 pt on 5 Dec 2025. Over 12 months: −0.25 pt. As of 23 Jul 2026.
| Took effect | Rate | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 5 Dec 2025 | 5.25% | −0.25 pt |
| 6 Jun 2025 | 5.50% | −0.50 pt |
| 9 Apr 2025 | 6.00% | −0.25 pt |
| 7 Feb 2025 | 6.25% | −0.25 pt |
| 8 Feb 2023 | 6.50% | +0.25 pt |
| 7 Dec 2022 | 6.25% | +0.35 pt |
| 30 Sep 2022 | 5.90% | +0.50 pt |
| 5 Aug 2022 | 5.40% | +0.50 pt |
| 8 Jun 2022 | 4.90% | start of our data |
All countries: central bank interest rates. Rates move stocks through borrowing costs and the currency: rising rates usually weigh on rate-sensitive stocks and help banks, falling rates the opposite.
Stock market: Nifty 50
| Level | 1M | 3M | YTD | 1Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23,146.15 | −0.3% | −4.9% | −11.4% | −8.1% |
Closing level on 16 Oct 2026. "vs 200-day avg" is how far the index is above or below its own average of the last 200 closes; "from 52-week high" is the drop from its highest level of the past year. Both are arithmetic on our price history, not a forecast.
Risk-on or risk-off?
Risk-off 0 of 5 price checks on Nifty 50 are positive, as of 16 Oct 2026.
| Check | Reading today | Positive? |
|---|---|---|
| Index above its 200-day average | -4.3% vs average | No |
| 50-day average above the 200-day average | -2.6% | No |
| 3-month return positive | -4.9% | No |
| Within 10% of the 52-week high | -12.1% from high | No |
| Volatility at or below its own 1-year median | 20-day 16% vs median 12% (annualised) | No |
4 or 5 positive = Risk-on, 2 or 3 = Mixed, 0 or 1 = Risk-off. Each check uses only prices up to that day, so the same rule can be run on history (below). It describes how investors are behaving in this market, not what happens next.
- Global risk gauge (Market Compass): Risk-on, 1 of 7 warning signals on.
- Oil is up 29% in three months. India imports far more fuel than it exports, so this raises its import bill and tends to press on its currency and on fuel-heavy industries.
- The central bank has cut its rate by 0.25 points over twelve months. Easing supports borrowing and stock valuations, and can squeeze bank margins.
| Strategy | Return a year | Worst fall |
|---|---|---|
| Buy and hold the index | 12.5% | −59.9% |
| Hold only when not Risk-off (2+ checks) | 11.1% | −34.9% |
| Hold only when Risk-on (4+ checks) | 7.9% | −30.1% |
The position is decided at one day's close and applied to the next day's return, so the rule never uses the future. Time out of the market earns nothing here. Limits: index price only (no dividends, no interest on cash), no trading costs or taxes, one market and one period, and a rule that did well or badly in the past can do the opposite next time. Hypothetical results, not a promise and not advice.
Economy at a glance
| Measure | Latest | Year |
|---|---|---|
| Economy size (GDP) | $3.96 trillion | 2025 |
| GDP per person | $2,702 | 2025 |
| GDP growth | 7.6% | 2025 |
| Inflation (consumer prices) | 2.4% | 2025 |
| Unemployment | 4.2% | 2025 |
| Population | 1.46 billion | 2025 |
| Current account balance, % of GDP | -0.5% | 2025 |
| Central government debt, % of GDP | 46.5% | 2018 |
| Exports of goods and services, % of GDP | 22.3% | 2025 |
| Imports of goods and services, % of GDP | 24.0% | 2025 |
Source: World Bank World Development Indicators, annual figures. The latest year is usually the previous calendar year, so these numbers are not live and are revised later by the World Bank.
Trade structure
Share of merchandise exports and imports by product group. ■ exports ■ imports.
High-technology products are 18.6% of manufactured exports (2024).
- Fuels are 13.1% of merchandise exports and 28.0% of imports, so energy prices are not the main swing factor in its trade.
- Manufactured goods are 70.1% of merchandise exports: the economy sells made goods abroad, which ties it to global demand and to its exchange rate.
- Exports plus imports equal 46% of GDP, so the economy is mostly driven by domestic demand, with trade a smaller share.
- The current account was a deficit of 0.5% of GDP (2025): the country spends more abroad than it earns and relies on foreign capital to fill the gap.
These describe the structure of trade, using the figures above. They are not forecasts and not investment advice. Latest available year differs by group (usually 2024 or 2025).
More on India
Sources: Bank for International Settlements and central bank decisions (policy rates), World Bank (economy and trade), StocksXray price history (index). Educational only, not financial advice.