Japan: economy, interest rate and stock market
The central bank's policy rate is 1.25% (up 0.75 points over 12 months). Inflation was 3.2% in 2025 and GDP grew 1.2% (World Bank). Nikkei 225 is +39.7% over the past year.
Interest rate
1.25% set by Bank of Japan. Last change: +0.25 pt on 24 Sep 2026. Over 12 months: +0.75 pt. As of 13 Oct 2026.
| Took effect | Rate | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 24 Sep 2026 | 1.25% | +0.25 pt |
| 17 Jun 2026 | 1.00% | +0.25 pt |
| 22 Dec 2025 | 0.75% | +0.25 pt |
| 27 Jan 2025 | 0.50% | +0.25 pt |
| 1 Aug 2024 | 0.25% | +0.20 pt |
| 21 Mar 2024 | 0.05% | +0.15 pt |
| 1 Jan 2021 | -0.10% | start of our data |
All countries: central bank interest rates. Rates move stocks through borrowing costs and the currency: rising rates usually weigh on rate-sensitive stocks and help banks, falling rates the opposite.
Stock market: Nikkei 225
| Level | 1M | 3M | YTD | 1Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 63,955.17 | +0.7% | −5.6% | +27.0% | +39.7% |
Closing level on 19 Oct 2026. "vs 200-day avg" is how far the index is above or below its own average of the last 200 closes; "from 52-week high" is the drop from its highest level of the past year. Both are arithmetic on our price history, not a forecast.
Risk-on or risk-off?
Mixed 2 of 5 price checks on Nikkei 225 are positive, as of 19 Oct 2026.
| Check | Reading today | Positive? |
|---|---|---|
| Index above its 200-day average | +4.5% vs average | Yes |
| 50-day average above the 200-day average | +8.3% | Yes |
| 3-month return positive | -5.6% | No |
| Within 10% of the 52-week high | -11.6% from high | No |
| Volatility at or below its own 1-year median | 20-day 29% vs median 27% (annualised) | No |
4 or 5 positive = Risk-on, 2 or 3 = Mixed, 0 or 1 = Risk-off. Each check uses only prices up to that day, so the same rule can be run on history (below). It describes how investors are behaving in this market, not what happens next.
- Global risk gauge (Market Compass): Risk-on, 1 of 7 warning signals on.
- Oil is up 29% in three months. Japan imports far more fuel than it exports, so this raises its import bill and tends to press on its currency and on fuel-heavy industries.
- The central bank has raised its rate by 0.75 points over twelve months. Tightening usually weighs on rate-sensitive stocks and helps bank margins.
| Strategy | Return a year | Worst fall |
|---|---|---|
| Buy and hold the index | 6.0% | −61.4% |
| Hold only when not Risk-off (2+ checks) | 5.5% | −31.8% |
| Hold only when Risk-on (4+ checks) | 2.5% | −29.6% |
The position is decided at one day's close and applied to the next day's return, so the rule never uses the future. Time out of the market earns nothing here. Limits: index price only (no dividends, no interest on cash), no trading costs or taxes, one market and one period, and a rule that did well or badly in the past can do the opposite next time. Hypothetical results, not a promise and not advice.
Economy at a glance
| Measure | Latest | Year |
|---|---|---|
| Economy size (GDP) | $4.44 trillion | 2025 |
| GDP per person | $35,951 | 2025 |
| GDP growth | 1.2% | 2025 |
| Inflation (consumer prices) | 3.2% | 2025 |
| Unemployment | 2.5% | 2025 |
| Population | 123.4 million | 2025 |
| Current account balance, % of GDP | 4.9% | 2025 |
| Exports of goods and services, % of GDP | 22.0% | 2024 |
| Imports of goods and services, % of GDP | 22.9% | 2024 |
Source: World Bank World Development Indicators, annual figures. The latest year is usually the previous calendar year, so these numbers are not live and are revised later by the World Bank.
Trade structure
Share of merchandise exports and imports by product group. ■ exports ■ imports.
High-technology products are 17.6% of manufactured exports (2024).
- Fuels are 19.6% of Japan's merchandise imports against 1.2% of its exports. A rise in oil and gas prices raises its import bill and tends to press on its currency and on fuel-heavy industries; a fall does the reverse.
- Manufactured goods are 80.6% of merchandise exports: the economy sells made goods abroad, which ties it to global demand and to its exchange rate.
- Exports plus imports equal 45% of GDP, so the economy is mostly driven by domestic demand, with trade a smaller share.
- The current account was a surplus of 4.9% of GDP (2025): the country earns more abroad than it spends.
These describe the structure of trade, using the figures above. They are not forecasts and not investment advice. Latest available year differs by group (usually 2024 or 2025).
More on Japan
Sources: Bank for International Settlements and central bank decisions (policy rates), World Bank (economy and trade), StocksXray price history (index). Educational only, not financial advice.