Nigeria: economy, interest rate and stock market
The central bank's policy rate is 23.00%. Inflation was 23.0% in 2025 and GDP grew 4.0% (World Bank). Nigeria All Share is +68.4% over the past year.
Interest rate
23.00% set by Central Bank of Nigeria. Last change: −3.50 pt on 22 Sep 2026. As of 19 Oct 2026 (checked by hand against the bank's decisions).
Monetary policy rate, cut from 26.5% on 22 September 2026 (reported consistently by several outlets).
All countries: central bank interest rates. Rates move stocks through borrowing costs and the currency: rising rates usually weigh on rate-sensitive stocks and help banks, falling rates the opposite.
Stock market: Nigeria All Share
| Level | 1M | 3M | YTD | 1Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 247,539.73 | +1.1% | +1.7% | +59.1% | +68.4% |
Closing level on 16 Oct 2026. "vs 200-day avg" is how far the index is above or below its own average of the last 200 closes; "from 52-week high" is the drop from its highest level of the past year. Both are arithmetic on our price history, not a forecast.
Risk-on or risk-off?
Risk-on 5 of 5 price checks on Nigeria All Share are positive, as of 16 Oct 2026.
| Check | Reading today | Positive? |
|---|---|---|
| Index above its 200-day average | +12.2% vs average | Yes |
| 50-day average above the 200-day average | +11.6% | Yes |
| 3-month return positive | +1.7% | Yes |
| Within 10% of the 52-week high | -2.0% from high | Yes |
| Volatility at or below its own 1-year median | 20-day 7% vs median 10% (annualised) | Yes |
4 or 5 positive = Risk-on, 2 or 3 = Mixed, 0 or 1 = Risk-off. Each check uses only prices up to that day, so the same rule can be run on history (below). It describes how investors are behaving in this market, not what happens next.
- Global risk gauge (Market Compass): Risk-on, 1 of 7 warning signals on.
- Breadth: 32% of Nigeria's stocks are above their own 200-day average.
- Oil is up 29% in three months. Fuels are a large part of Nigeria's exports, so export earnings benefit.
| Strategy | Return a year | Worst fall |
|---|---|---|
| Buy and hold the index | 14.8% | −70.3% |
| Hold only when not Risk-off (2+ checks) | 21.3% | −27.9% |
| Hold only when Risk-on (4+ checks) | 19.5% | −27.5% |
The position is decided at one day's close and applied to the next day's return, so the rule never uses the future. Time out of the market earns nothing here. Limits: index price only (no dividends, no interest on cash), no trading costs or taxes, one market and one period, and a rule that did well or badly in the past can do the opposite next time. Hypothetical results, not a promise and not advice.
Stocks that fit the current setting
Risk-on setting: the screen looks for the strongest price momentum over the last six months (skipping the latest month) among stocks trading above their 200-day average. Chosen from the 151 most traded stocks in Nigeria, using prices up to 16 Oct 2026.
| Stock | Price | 3M |
|---|---|---|
| FIRSTHOLDCO FIRST HOLDCO PLC | NGN 138.00 | +43.8% |
| AIRTELAFRI AIRTEL AFRICA PLC | NGN 6,300.00 | +8.6% |
| BERGER BERGER PAINTS PLC | NGN 147.60 | +0.0% |
| UPDCREIT UPDC REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT... | NGN 23.50 | +120.7% |
| VITAFOAM VITAFOAM NIGERIA PLC | NGN 194.00 | −0.4% |
| SEPLAT SEPLAT ENERGY PLC | NGN 16,000.10 | +40.8% |
| UACN UAC OF NIGERIA PLC | NGN 184.00 | −8.0% |
| UNIONDICON UNION DICON SALT PLC | NGN 23.75 | +0.0% |
| PREMPAINTS PREMIER PAINTS PLC | NGN 30.40 | +0.0% |
| ETI ECOBANK TRANSNATIONAL INCORP... | NGN 71.40 | −16.7% |
These are candidates to research, not recommendations. The screen reads prices only: it knows nothing about the companies' earnings, debt or valuation, and a stock can fit the setting and still fall. Momentum screens tend to pick volatile stocks, so check the Volatility column. We cannot yet test this screen fairly on the past, because our price history only contains companies that are listed today, which flatters any screen. So instead of showing a backtest we record each day's picks and will judge the rule on what happens after the fact. Educational only, not financial advice.
Economy at a glance
| Measure | Latest | Year |
|---|---|---|
| Economy size (GDP) | $290.8 billion | 2025 |
| GDP per person | $1,224 | 2025 |
| GDP growth | 4.0% | 2025 |
| Inflation (consumer prices) | 23.0% | 2025 |
| Unemployment | 3.1% | 2025 |
| Population | 237.5 million | 2025 |
| Current account balance, % of GDP | 4.8% | 2025 |
Source: World Bank World Development Indicators, annual figures. The latest year is usually the previous calendar year, so these numbers are not live and are revised later by the World Bank.
Trade structure
Share of merchandise exports and imports by product group. ■ exports ■ imports.
High-technology products are 2.7% of manufactured exports (2024).
- Fuels are 85.9% of Nigeria's merchandise exports (and 33.2% of imports), so energy prices matter for what the country earns abroad.
- The current account was a surplus of 4.8% of GDP (2025): the country earns more abroad than it spends.
These describe the structure of trade, using the figures above. They are not forecasts and not investment advice. Latest available year differs by group (usually 2024 or 2025).
More on Nigeria
Sources: Bank for International Settlements and central bank decisions (policy rates), World Bank (economy and trade), StocksXray price history (index). Educational only, not financial advice.