Norway: economy, interest rate and stock market
The central bank's policy rate is 4.50% (up 0.50 points over 12 months). Inflation was 3.0% in 2025 and GDP grew 1.1% (World Bank). Oslo Børs Benchmark is +28.8% over the past year.
Interest rate
4.50% set by Norges Bank. Last change: +0.25 pt on 25 Sep 2026. Over 12 months: +0.50 pt. As of 8 Oct 2026.
| Took effect | Rate | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 25 Sep 2026 | 4.50% | +0.25 pt |
| 8 May 2026 | 4.25% | +0.25 pt |
| 19 Sep 2025 | 4.00% | −0.25 pt |
| 20 Jun 2025 | 4.25% | −0.25 pt |
| 15 Dec 2023 | 4.50% | +0.25 pt |
| 22 Sep 2023 | 4.25% | +0.25 pt |
| 18 Aug 2023 | 4.00% | +0.25 pt |
| 23 Jun 2023 | 3.75% | +0.50 pt |
| 5 May 2023 | 3.25% | start of our data |
All countries: central bank interest rates. Rates move stocks through borrowing costs and the currency: rising rates usually weigh on rate-sensitive stocks and help banks, falling rates the opposite.
Stock market: Oslo Børs Benchmark
| Level | 1M | 3M | YTD | 1Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2,101.65 | −1.6% | +6.6% | +24.5% | +28.8% |
Closing level on 16 Oct 2026. "vs 200-day avg" is how far the index is above or below its own average of the last 200 closes; "from 52-week high" is the drop from its highest level of the past year. Both are arithmetic on our price history, not a forecast.
Risk-on or risk-off?
Risk-on 5 of 5 price checks on Oslo Børs Benchmark are positive, as of 16 Oct 2026.
| Check | Reading today | Positive? |
|---|---|---|
| Index above its 200-day average | +6.8% vs average | Yes |
| 50-day average above the 200-day average | +6.2% | Yes |
| 3-month return positive | +6.6% | Yes |
| Within 10% of the 52-week high | -1.6% from high | Yes |
| Volatility at or below its own 1-year median | 20-day 9% vs median 11% (annualised) | Yes |
4 or 5 positive = Risk-on, 2 or 3 = Mixed, 0 or 1 = Risk-off. Each check uses only prices up to that day, so the same rule can be run on history (below). It describes how investors are behaving in this market, not what happens next.
- Global risk gauge (Market Compass): Risk-on, 1 of 7 warning signals on.
- Breadth: 50% of Norway's stocks are above their own 200-day average.
- Oil is up 29% in three months. Fuels are a large part of Norway's exports, so export earnings benefit.
- The central bank has raised its rate by 0.50 points over twelve months. Tightening usually weighs on rate-sensitive stocks and helps bank margins.
| Strategy | Return a year | Worst fall |
|---|---|---|
| Buy and hold the index | 9.4% | −64.1% |
| Hold only when not Risk-off (2+ checks) | 9.1% | −31.6% |
| Hold only when Risk-on (4+ checks) | 4.6% | −35.0% |
The position is decided at one day's close and applied to the next day's return, so the rule never uses the future. Time out of the market earns nothing here. Limits: index price only (no dividends, no interest on cash), no trading costs or taxes, one market and one period, and a rule that did well or badly in the past can do the opposite next time. Hypothetical results, not a promise and not advice.
Stocks that fit the current setting
Risk-on setting: the screen looks for the strongest price momentum over the last six months (skipping the latest month) among stocks trading above their 200-day average. Chosen from the 277 most traded stocks in Norway, using prices up to 16 Oct 2026.
| Stock | Price | 3M |
|---|---|---|
| HUNT Hunter Group ASA | NOK 17.56 | +118.7% |
| ONCIN Oncoinvent ASA | NOK 68.20 | −19.8% |
| CRNA Circio Holding ASA | NOK 10.94 | +26.8% |
| PLT Polight ASA | NOK 17.18 | +58.2% |
| ZAP Zaptec AS | NOK 57.00 | +23.1% |
| OET Okeanis Eco Tankers Corp | NOK 855.00 | +72.5% |
| CODE CodeLab Capital A/S | NOK 5.12 | +66.2% |
| BWLPG BW LPG Ltd | NOK 235.00 | +16.3% |
| TEKNA Tekna Holding AS | NOK 6.00 | +50.0% |
| BCS Bergen Carbon Solutions A/S | NOK 6.66 | +10.6% |
These are candidates to research, not recommendations. The screen reads prices only: it knows nothing about the companies' earnings, debt or valuation, and a stock can fit the setting and still fall. Momentum screens tend to pick volatile stocks, so check the Volatility column. We cannot yet test this screen fairly on the past, because our price history only contains companies that are listed today, which flatters any screen. So instead of showing a backtest we record each day's picks and will judge the rule on what happens after the fact. Educational only, not financial advice.
Economy at a glance
| Measure | Latest | Year |
|---|---|---|
| Economy size (GDP) | $530.8 billion | 2025 |
| GDP per person | $94,594 | 2025 |
| GDP growth | 1.1% | 2025 |
| Inflation (consumer prices) | 3.0% | 2025 |
| Unemployment | 4.6% | 2025 |
| Population | 5.6 million | 2025 |
| Current account balance, % of GDP | 14.1% | 2025 |
| Exports of goods and services, % of GDP | 45.4% | 2025 |
| Imports of goods and services, % of GDP | 33.7% | 2025 |
Source: World Bank World Development Indicators, annual figures. The latest year is usually the previous calendar year, so these numbers are not live and are revised later by the World Bank.
Trade structure
Share of merchandise exports and imports by product group. ■ exports ■ imports.
High-technology products are 25.4% of manufactured exports (2024).
- Fuels are 62.1% of Norway's merchandise exports (and 5.3% of imports), so energy prices matter for what the country earns abroad.
- High-technology products are 25.4% of manufactured exports (2024), which links trade to the electronics and equipment cycle.
- Exports plus imports equal 79% of GDP, so the economy is moderately open to trade.
- The current account was a surplus of 14.1% of GDP (2025): the country earns more abroad than it spends.
These describe the structure of trade, using the figures above. They are not forecasts and not investment advice. Latest available year differs by group (usually 2024 or 2025).
More on Norway
Sources: Bank for International Settlements and central bank decisions (policy rates), World Bank (economy and trade), StocksXray price history (index). Educational only, not financial advice.