Pakistan: economy, interest rate and stock market
The central bank's policy rate is 11.50%. Inflation was 3.5% in 2025 and GDP grew 3.7% (World Bank). KSE-100 (Pakistan) is +5.0% over the past year.
Interest rate
11.50% set by State Bank of Pakistan. As of 19 Oct 2026 (checked by hand against the bank's decisions).
Policy rate. Held at 11.5% at the 14 September 2026 meeting; the SBP rates page still showed 11.50% in mid-October.
All countries: central bank interest rates. Rates move stocks through borrowing costs and the currency: rising rates usually weigh on rate-sensitive stocks and help banks, falling rates the opposite.
Stock market: KSE-100 (Pakistan)
| Level | 1M | 3M | YTD | 1Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 166,419.72 | −1.6% | −5.3% | −4.4% | +5.0% |
Closing level on 16 Oct 2026. "vs 200-day avg" is how far the index is above or below its own average of the last 200 closes; "from 52-week high" is the drop from its highest level of the past year. Both are arithmetic on our price history, not a forecast.
Risk-on or risk-off?
Mixed 2 of 5 price checks on KSE-100 (Pakistan) are positive, as of 16 Oct 2026.
| Check | Reading today | Positive? |
|---|---|---|
| Index above its 200-day average | -3.4% vs average | No |
| 50-day average above the 200-day average | +0.3% | Yes |
| 3-month return positive | -5.3% | No |
| Within 10% of the 52-week high | -12.0% from high | No |
| Volatility at or below its own 1-year median | 20-day 11% vs median 20% (annualised) | Yes |
4 or 5 positive = Risk-on, 2 or 3 = Mixed, 0 or 1 = Risk-off. Each check uses only prices up to that day, so the same rule can be run on history (below). It describes how investors are behaving in this market, not what happens next.
- Global risk gauge (Market Compass): Risk-on, 1 of 7 warning signals on.
- Breadth: 38% of Pakistan's stocks are above their own 200-day average.
- Oil is up 29% in three months. Pakistan imports far more fuel than it exports, so this raises its import bill and tends to press on its currency and on fuel-heavy industries.
| Strategy | Return a year | Worst fall |
|---|---|---|
| Buy and hold the index | 20.2% | −69.3% |
| Hold only when not Risk-off (2+ checks) | 19.5% | −37.2% |
| Hold only when Risk-on (4+ checks) | 17.5% | −20.9% |
The position is decided at one day's close and applied to the next day's return, so the rule never uses the future. Time out of the market earns nothing here. Limits: index price only (no dividends, no interest on cash), no trading costs or taxes, one market and one period, and a rule that did well or badly in the past can do the opposite next time. Hypothetical results, not a promise and not advice.
Stocks that fit the current setting
Mixed setting: the screen looks for the best momentum per unit of volatility among stocks trading above their 200-day average. Chosen from the 300 most traded stocks in Pakistan, using prices up to 16 Oct 2026.
| Stock | Price | 3M |
|---|---|---|
| ASTM Asim Textile Mills Ltd | PKR 64.57 | +166.5% |
| KPUS Khairpur Sugar Mills Ltd | PKR 1,180.36 | −36.9% |
| MSOT Masood Textile Mills Ltd | PKR 193.14 | +62.1% |
| TPLT TPL Properties Ltd | PKR 30.02 | +7.6% |
| PRL Pakistan Refinery Ltd | PKR 106.95 | +139.9% |
| BUXL Buxly Paints Ltd | PKR 336.47 | +77.1% |
| TPL TPL Corp Ltd | PKR 20.48 | +24.5% |
| BPL Burshane LPG (Pakistan) Ltd | PKR 46.04 | +5.5% |
| FPJM First Punjab Modaraba | PKR 20.05 | +81.6% |
| MACFL Macpac Films Ltd | PKR 100.33 | +49.2% |
These are candidates to research, not recommendations. The screen reads prices only: it knows nothing about the companies' earnings, debt or valuation, and a stock can fit the setting and still fall. Momentum screens tend to pick volatile stocks, so check the Volatility column. We cannot yet test this screen fairly on the past, because our price history only contains companies that are listed today, which flatters any screen. So instead of showing a backtest we record each day's picks and will judge the rule on what happens after the fact. Educational only, not financial advice.
Economy at a glance
| Measure | Latest | Year |
|---|---|---|
| Economy size (GDP) | $407.3 billion | 2025 |
| GDP per person | $1,596 | 2025 |
| GDP growth | 3.7% | 2025 |
| Inflation (consumer prices) | 3.5% | 2025 |
| Unemployment | 5.4% | 2025 |
| Population | 255.2 million | 2025 |
| Current account balance, % of GDP | -0.1% | 2025 |
| Exports of goods and services, % of GDP | 10.0% | 2025 |
| Imports of goods and services, % of GDP | 17.2% | 2025 |
Source: World Bank World Development Indicators, annual figures. The latest year is usually the previous calendar year, so these numbers are not live and are revised later by the World Bank.
Trade structure
Share of merchandise exports and imports by product group. ■ exports ■ imports.
High-technology products are 2.4% of manufactured exports (2024).
- Fuels are 25.7% of Pakistan's merchandise imports against 2.4% of its exports. A rise in oil and gas prices raises its import bill and tends to press on its currency and on fuel-heavy industries; a fall does the reverse.
- Manufactured goods are 73.2% of merchandise exports: the economy sells made goods abroad, which ties it to global demand and to its exchange rate.
- Exports plus imports equal 27% of GDP, so the economy is mostly driven by domestic demand, with trade a smaller share.
- The current account was a deficit of 0.1% of GDP (2025): the country spends more abroad than it earns and relies on foreign capital to fill the gap.
These describe the structure of trade, using the figures above. They are not forecasts and not investment advice. Latest available year differs by group (usually 2024 or 2025).
More on Pakistan
Sources: Bank for International Settlements and central bank decisions (policy rates), World Bank (economy and trade), StocksXray price history (index). Educational only, not financial advice.