Sweden: economy, interest rate and stock market
The central bank's policy rate is 1.75% (unchanged over 12 months). Inflation was 0.7% in 2025 and GDP grew 1.5% (World Bank). OMX Stockholm 30 is +21.2% over the past year.
Interest rate
1.75% set by Sveriges Riksbank. Last change: −0.25 pt on 1 Oct 2025. Over 12 months: unchanged. As of 13 Oct 2026.
| Took effect | Rate | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Oct 2025 | 1.75% | −0.25 pt |
| 25 Jun 2025 | 2.00% | −0.25 pt |
| 5 Feb 2025 | 2.25% | −0.25 pt |
| 8 Jan 2025 | 2.50% | −0.25 pt |
| 13 Nov 2024 | 2.75% | −0.50 pt |
| 2 Oct 2024 | 3.25% | −0.25 pt |
| 21 Aug 2024 | 3.50% | −0.25 pt |
| 15 May 2024 | 3.75% | −0.25 pt |
| 27 Sep 2023 | 4.00% | start of our data |
All countries: central bank interest rates. Rates move stocks through borrowing costs and the currency: rising rates usually weigh on rate-sensitive stocks and help banks, falling rates the opposite.
Stock market: OMX Stockholm 30
| Level | 1M | 3M | YTD | 1Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3,296.84 | +0.2% | +4.8% | +14.4% | +21.2% |
Closing level on 16 Oct 2026. "vs 200-day avg" is how far the index is above or below its own average of the last 200 closes; "from 52-week high" is the drop from its highest level of the past year. Both are arithmetic on our price history, not a forecast.
Risk-on or risk-off?
Risk-on 4 of 5 price checks on OMX Stockholm 30 are positive, as of 16 Oct 2026.
| Check | Reading today | Positive? |
|---|---|---|
| Index above its 200-day average | +4.9% vs average | Yes |
| 50-day average above the 200-day average | +4.2% | Yes |
| 3-month return positive | +4.8% | Yes |
| Within 10% of the 52-week high | -1.2% from high | Yes |
| Volatility at or below its own 1-year median | 20-day 15% vs median 14% (annualised) | No |
4 or 5 positive = Risk-on, 2 or 3 = Mixed, 0 or 1 = Risk-off. Each check uses only prices up to that day, so the same rule can be run on history (below). It describes how investors are behaving in this market, not what happens next.
- Global risk gauge (Market Compass): Risk-on, 1 of 7 warning signals on.
- Breadth: 38% of Sweden's stocks are above their own 200-day average.
- Oil is up 29% in three months, but fuel is a small net item in Sweden's trade, so the direct effect is limited.
- The policy rate is unchanged over twelve months: no new push from monetary policy either way.
| Strategy | Return a year | Worst fall |
|---|---|---|
| Buy and hold the index | 4.1% | −64.8% |
| Hold only when not Risk-off (2+ checks) | 6.0% | −31.7% |
| Hold only when Risk-on (4+ checks) | 5.6% | −27.6% |
The position is decided at one day's close and applied to the next day's return, so the rule never uses the future. Time out of the market earns nothing here. Limits: index price only (no dividends, no interest on cash), no trading costs or taxes, one market and one period, and a rule that did well or badly in the past can do the opposite next time. Hypothetical results, not a promise and not advice.
Stocks that fit the current setting
Risk-on setting: the screen looks for the strongest price momentum over the last six months (skipping the latest month) among stocks trading above their 200-day average. Chosen from the 300 most traded stocks in Sweden, using prices up to 16 Oct 2026.
| Stock | Price | 3M |
|---|---|---|
| ALZCUR AlzeCure Pharma | SEK 7.10 | +12.7% |
| FNM Ferronordic AB (publ) | SEK 86.40 | +33.3% |
| SINCH Sinch AB | SEK 46.69 | +19.5% |
| YUBICO Yubico AB | SEK 118.50 | +79.5% |
| TRUE-B Truecaller AB (publ) | SEK 24.38 | +45.5% |
| EMBRAC-B Embracer Group AB (publ) | SEK 90.08 | +30.9% |
| SF Stillfront Group AB (publ) | SEK 7.48 | +71.4% |
| MILDEF MilDef Group AB | SEK 253.00 | +18.8% |
| KJELL Kjell Group AB | SEK 16.90 | +26.1% |
| MIPS MIPS AB | SEK 416.80 | +9.5% |
These are candidates to research, not recommendations. The screen reads prices only: it knows nothing about the companies' earnings, debt or valuation, and a stock can fit the setting and still fall. Momentum screens tend to pick volatile stocks, so check the Volatility column. We cannot yet test this screen fairly on the past, because our price history only contains companies that are listed today, which flatters any screen. So instead of showing a backtest we record each day's picks and will judge the rule on what happens after the fact. Educational only, not financial advice.
Economy at a glance
| Measure | Latest | Year |
|---|---|---|
| Economy size (GDP) | $669.0 billion | 2025 |
| GDP per person | $63,133 | 2025 |
| GDP growth | 1.5% | 2025 |
| Inflation (consumer prices) | 0.7% | 2025 |
| Unemployment | 8.7% | 2025 |
| Population | 10.6 million | 2025 |
| Current account balance, % of GDP | 6.8% | 2025 |
| Exports of goods and services, % of GDP | 53.2% | 2025 |
| Imports of goods and services, % of GDP | 51.1% | 2025 |
Source: World Bank World Development Indicators, annual figures. The latest year is usually the previous calendar year, so these numbers are not live and are revised later by the World Bank.
Trade structure
Share of merchandise exports and imports by product group. ■ exports ■ imports.
High-technology products are 17.7% of manufactured exports (2024).
- Fuels are 6.0% of merchandise exports and 8.3% of imports, so energy prices are not the main swing factor in its trade.
- Manufactured goods are 72.2% of merchandise exports: the economy sells made goods abroad, which ties it to global demand and to its exchange rate.
- Exports plus imports equal 104% of GDP, so the economy is very open to trade: global conditions reach it quickly.
- The current account was a surplus of 6.8% of GDP (2025): the country earns more abroad than it spends.
These describe the structure of trade, using the figures above. They are not forecasts and not investment advice. Latest available year differs by group (usually 2024 or 2025).
More on Sweden
Sources: Bank for International Settlements and central bank decisions (policy rates), World Bank (economy and trade), StocksXray price history (index). Educational only, not financial advice.