Switzerland: economy, interest rate and stock market
The central bank's policy rate is 0.00% (unchanged over 12 months). Inflation was 0.2% in 2025 and GDP grew 1.3% (World Bank). Swiss Market Index (SMI) is +15.7% over the past year.
Interest rate
0.00% set by Swiss National Bank. Last change: −0.25 pt on 20 Jun 2025. Over 12 months: unchanged. As of 13 Oct 2026.
| Took effect | Rate | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 20 Jun 2025 | 0.00% | −0.25 pt |
| 21 Mar 2025 | 0.25% | −0.25 pt |
| 13 Dec 2024 | 0.50% | −0.50 pt |
| 27 Sep 2024 | 1.00% | −0.25 pt |
| 21 Jun 2024 | 1.25% | −0.25 pt |
| 22 Mar 2024 | 1.50% | −0.25 pt |
| 23 Jun 2023 | 1.75% | +0.25 pt |
| 24 Mar 2023 | 1.50% | +0.50 pt |
| 16 Dec 2022 | 1.00% | start of our data |
All countries: central bank interest rates. Rates move stocks through borrowing costs and the currency: rising rates usually weigh on rate-sensitive stocks and help banks, falling rates the opposite.
Stock market: Swiss Market Index (SMI)
| Level | 1M | 3M | YTD | 1Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14,391.31 | +3.2% | +0.7% | +8.5% | +15.7% |
Closing level on 16 Oct 2026. "vs 200-day avg" is how far the index is above or below its own average of the last 200 closes; "from 52-week high" is the drop from its highest level of the past year. Both are arithmetic on our price history, not a forecast.
Risk-on or risk-off?
Risk-on 4 of 5 price checks on Swiss Market Index (SMI) are positive, as of 16 Oct 2026.
| Check | Reading today | Positive? |
|---|---|---|
| Index above its 200-day average | +5.3% vs average | Yes |
| 50-day average above the 200-day average | +3.2% | Yes |
| 3-month return positive | +0.7% | Yes |
| Within 10% of the 52-week high | -1.7% from high | Yes |
| Volatility at or below its own 1-year median | 20-day 13% vs median 11% (annualised) | No |
4 or 5 positive = Risk-on, 2 or 3 = Mixed, 0 or 1 = Risk-off. Each check uses only prices up to that day, so the same rule can be run on history (below). It describes how investors are behaving in this market, not what happens next.
- Global risk gauge (Market Compass): Risk-on, 1 of 7 warning signals on.
- Breadth: 55% of Switzerland's stocks are above their own 200-day average.
- Oil is up 29% in three months, but fuel is a small net item in Switzerland's trade, so the direct effect is limited.
- The policy rate is unchanged over twelve months: no new push from monetary policy either way.
| Strategy | Return a year | Worst fall |
|---|---|---|
| Buy and hold the index | 2.5% | −55.0% |
| Hold only when not Risk-off (2+ checks) | 0.5% | −41.2% |
| Hold only when Risk-on (4+ checks) | 2.0% | −27.2% |
The position is decided at one day's close and applied to the next day's return, so the rule never uses the future. Time out of the market earns nothing here. Limits: index price only (no dividends, no interest on cash), no trading costs or taxes, one market and one period, and a rule that did well or badly in the past can do the opposite next time. Hypothetical results, not a promise and not advice.
Stocks that fit the current setting
Risk-on setting: the screen looks for the strongest price momentum over the last six months (skipping the latest month) among stocks trading above their 200-day average. Chosen from the 203 most traded stocks in Switzerland, using prices up to 16 Oct 2026.
| Stock | Price | 3M |
|---|---|---|
| DOCM DocMorris AG | CHF 15.58 | +44.1% |
| EVE Evolva Holding SA | CHF 2.44 | +4.7% |
| LEHN Lem Holding SA | CHF 606.00 | +52.8% |
| AMS Ams AG | CHF 17.83 | +4.5% |
| BMAG Bajaj Mobility AG | CHF 32.40 | +74.9% |
| TECN Tecan Group AG | CHF 241.20 | +33.0% |
| OERL OC Oerlikon Corp AG | CHF 5.94 | +26.4% |
| GURN Gurit Holding AG | CHF 50.40 | +43.2% |
| BOSN Bossard Holding AG | CHF 264.00 | +18.9% |
| PPGN PolyPeptide Group AG | CHF 43.95 | +0.3% |
These are candidates to research, not recommendations. The screen reads prices only: it knows nothing about the companies' earnings, debt or valuation, and a stock can fit the setting and still fall. Momentum screens tend to pick volatile stocks, so check the Volatility column. We cannot yet test this screen fairly on the past, because our price history only contains companies that are listed today, which flatters any screen. So instead of showing a backtest we record each day's picks and will judge the rule on what happens after the fact. Educational only, not financial advice.
Economy at a glance
| Measure | Latest | Year |
|---|---|---|
| Economy size (GDP) | $1.04 trillion | 2025 |
| GDP per person | $114,769 | 2025 |
| GDP growth | 1.3% | 2025 |
| Inflation (consumer prices) | 0.2% | 2025 |
| Unemployment | 4.9% | 2025 |
| Population | 9.1 million | 2025 |
| Current account balance, % of GDP | 6.2% | 2025 |
| Central government debt, % of GDP | 22.3% | 2024 |
| Exports of goods and services, % of GDP | 78.1% | 2025 |
| Imports of goods and services, % of GDP | 69.1% | 2025 |
Source: World Bank World Development Indicators, annual figures. The latest year is usually the previous calendar year, so these numbers are not live and are revised later by the World Bank.
Trade structure
Share of merchandise exports and imports by product group. ■ exports ■ imports.
High-technology products are 29.6% of manufactured exports (2024).
- Fuels are 1.0% of merchandise exports and 2.5% of imports, so energy prices are not the main swing factor in its trade.
- High-technology products are 29.6% of manufactured exports (2024), which links trade to the electronics and equipment cycle.
- Exports plus imports equal 147% of GDP, so the economy is very open to trade: global conditions reach it quickly.
- The current account was a surplus of 6.2% of GDP (2025): the country earns more abroad than it spends.
These describe the structure of trade, using the figures above. They are not forecasts and not investment advice. Latest available year differs by group (usually 2024 or 2025).
More on Switzerland
Sources: Bank for International Settlements and central bank decisions (policy rates), World Bank (economy and trade), StocksXray price history (index). Educational only, not financial advice.