Vietnam: economy, interest rate and stock market
The central bank's policy rate is 4.50%. Inflation was 3.3% in 2025 and GDP grew 8.0% (World Bank). VN-Index (Vietnam) is −2.4% over the past year.
Interest rate
4.50% set by State Bank of Vietnam. As of 19 Oct 2026 (checked by hand against the bank's decisions).
Refinancing rate. Kept at 4.5% through the first half of 2026 (analyst notes; no later official confirmation found).
All countries: central bank interest rates. Rates move stocks through borrowing costs and the currency: rising rates usually weigh on rate-sensitive stocks and help banks, falling rates the opposite.
Stock market: VN-Index (Vietnam)
| Level | 1M | 3M | YTD | 1Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1,705.91 | −6.4% | −5.4% | −4.4% | −2.4% |
Closing level on 16 Oct 2026. "vs 200-day avg" is how far the index is above or below its own average of the last 200 closes; "from 52-week high" is the drop from its highest level of the past year. Both are arithmetic on our price history, not a forecast.
Risk-on or risk-off?
Risk-off 1 of 5 price checks on VN-Index (Vietnam) are positive, as of 16 Oct 2026.
| Check | Reading today | Positive? |
|---|---|---|
| Index above its 200-day average | -5.1% vs average | No |
| 50-day average above the 200-day average | -1.2% | No |
| 3-month return positive | -5.4% | No |
| Within 10% of the 52-week high | -11.5% from high | No |
| Volatility at or below its own 1-year median | 20-day 11% vs median 18% (annualised) | Yes |
4 or 5 positive = Risk-on, 2 or 3 = Mixed, 0 or 1 = Risk-off. Each check uses only prices up to that day, so the same rule can be run on history (below). It describes how investors are behaving in this market, not what happens next.
- Global risk gauge (Market Compass): Risk-on, 1 of 7 warning signals on.
- Breadth: 23% of Vietnam's stocks are above their own 200-day average.
- Oil is up 29% in three months, but fuel is a small net item in Vietnam's trade, so the direct effect is limited.
| Strategy | Return a year | Worst fall |
|---|---|---|
| Buy and hold the index | 7.4% | −79.9% |
| Hold only when not Risk-off (2+ checks) | 11.4% | −40.0% |
| Hold only when Risk-on (4+ checks) | 9.2% | −48.5% |
The position is decided at one day's close and applied to the next day's return, so the rule never uses the future. Time out of the market earns nothing here. Limits: index price only (no dividends, no interest on cash), no trading costs or taxes, one market and one period, and a rule that did well or badly in the past can do the opposite next time. Hypothetical results, not a promise and not advice.
Stocks that fit the current setting
Risk-off setting: the screen looks for the stocks whose prices have swung least over the last year. Chosen from the 300 most traded stocks in Vietnam, using prices up to 16 Oct 2026.
| Stock | Price | 3M |
|---|---|---|
| SJD Can Don Hydro Power JSC | VND 13,950.00 | +0.4% |
| VSH Vinh Son Song Hinh Hydropowe... | VND 41,000.00 | −0.1% |
| VTZ Viet Thanh Plastic Trading &... | VND 20,300.00 | +0.5% |
| DRL Hydro Power JSC Power No3 | VND 41,000.00 | +3.7% |
| TCL Tan Cang Logistics and Steve... | VND 28,600.00 | −4.5% |
| SMB Sai Gon Mien Trung Beer JSC | VND 41,150.00 | +7.2% |
| TLD Thang Long Urban Development... | VND 8,230.00 | −2.0% |
| LSS Lam Son Sugar JSC | VND 7,850.00 | −4.0% |
| VNR Vietnam National Reinsurance | VND 17,900.00 | +1.2% |
| MCP My Chau Printing & Packaging... | VND 29,500.00 | +7.5% |
These are candidates to research, not recommendations. The screen reads prices only: it knows nothing about the companies' earnings, debt or valuation, and a stock can fit the setting and still fall. Momentum screens tend to pick volatile stocks, so check the Volatility column. We cannot yet test this screen fairly on the past, because our price history only contains companies that are listed today, which flatters any screen. So instead of showing a backtest we record each day's picks and will judge the rule on what happens after the fact. Educational only, not financial advice.
Economy at a glance
| Measure | Latest | Year |
|---|---|---|
| Economy size (GDP) | $514.7 billion | 2025 |
| GDP per person | $5,066 | 2025 |
| GDP growth | 8.0% | 2025 |
| Inflation (consumer prices) | 3.3% | 2025 |
| Unemployment | 1.5% | 2025 |
| Population | 101.6 million | 2025 |
| Current account balance, % of GDP | 6.4% | 2025 |
| Exports of goods and services, % of GDP | 98.2% | 2025 |
| Imports of goods and services, % of GDP | 92.1% | 2025 |
Source: World Bank World Development Indicators, annual figures. The latest year is usually the previous calendar year, so these numbers are not live and are revised later by the World Bank.
Trade structure
Share of merchandise exports and imports by product group. ■ exports ■ imports.
High-technology products are 44.3% of manufactured exports (2023).
- Fuels are 1.0% of merchandise exports and 7.9% of imports, so energy prices are not the main swing factor in its trade.
- Manufactured goods are 85.0% of merchandise exports: the economy sells made goods abroad, which ties it to global demand and to its exchange rate.
- High-technology products are 44.3% of manufactured exports (2023), which links trade to the electronics and equipment cycle.
- Exports plus imports equal 190% of GDP, so the economy is very open to trade: global conditions reach it quickly.
- The current account was a surplus of 6.4% of GDP (2025): the country earns more abroad than it spends.
These describe the structure of trade, using the figures above. They are not forecasts and not investment advice. Latest available year differs by group (usually 2024 or 2025).
More on Vietnam
Sources: Bank for International Settlements and central bank decisions (policy rates), World Bank (economy and trade), StocksXray price history (index). Educational only, not financial advice.