Is Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) undervalued or overvalued?

Our model estimates a fair value of about $161 against a price of $254.88 (Overvalued, -37% to fair value). It blends a 10-year DCF, sector multiples and earnings-power value and is a model estimate, not advice.

What is the X-Ray Score for AJG?

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. has an X-Ray Score of 38 out of 100, built from valuation, growth, profitability, financial health and dividend lenses ranked against Financials peers.

Where does the data for AJG come from?

Financial statements come from SEC EDGAR filings, prices from exchange price feeds, and industry betas and equity risk premium from Damodaran Online (NYU Stern).

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG)

Financials · Insurance Brokers · US stock · S&P 500 component

$254.88 ▲ +4.78 (1.91%)

At close 16 Oct 2026 · USD · Volume 1,206,900

Compare with BRO Historical data Research report SEC filings

Fair valueOvervalued

$161 −36.7% to fair value

$81fair band $113–$210$242

Day's range

$250.89 – $255.40

52-week range

$189.59 – $284.94

Red flags⚠ Heavy dilution

About Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.

Arthur J. Gallagher is an insurance broker and risk management firm based in Illinois. Its brokerage arm places property, casualty, employee benefits and reinsurance cover for businesses, public bodies, non-profits and individuals with insurance carriers, and its risk management arm provides claims handling and related consulting. Clients are organisations of many sizes across numerous countries.

The firm earns commissions from insurance carriers and fees from clients, along with some investment income. Revenue is $15.8 billion over the last twelve months, growing at 17.7% a year across three years. The operating margin is 16.7%, and the business earns a profit of 6% on the capital invested in it. It carries net debt of 3.0 times EBITDA, and the dividend yield is 1.1%. On the site's X-Ray Score it receives 38 out of 100.

Written with AI from public information and the filing figures on this page, then checked automatically for unsupported numbers. It can contain mistakes: read the company's own filings below before relying on it.

Price chart

Historical data & CSV

52-wk range $189.59 – $284.94Volume 1,206,900Daily, split-adjusted

Vitals

Market cap$65.4B

52-week range$189.59 – $284.94

Volume (last day)1,206,900

P/E (TTM)41.7

EBIT / EV yield3.4%

Free-cash-flow yield–

Dividend yield1.1%

Revenue (TTM)$15.8B

Net income (TTM)$1.6B

Operating margin16.7%

Return on capital5.8%

Debt incl. leases$13.5B

Cash & securities$1.4B

Debt = borrowings plus lease liabilities. Cash & securities = cash, equivalents and short-term marketable securities (long-term securities are not counted, so net cash can be understated for companies like Apple). Net debt = debt minus cash & securities. Source: latest SEC 10-Q/10-K. EBIT / EV yield = operating profit divided by market cap plus net debt.

Fair value estimate

$161model spread $148 – $176

Overvalued −36.7% to fair value

Equal blend of three models: peer multiples, a fundamentals-adjusted multiple (growth, ROIC and margin) and a 10-year DCF scaled to the market's average. Earnings-power value (no growth) is a floor and not part of the blend. Model uncertainty is Medium, so the safety margin is 30%.

Price $255

Undervalued < $113Fair $113 – $210Overvalued > $210

10-year DCF (market-scaled)

$199

Peer multiples

$76

Earnings power floor (not blended)

$65

Fundamentals-adjusted multiple

$210

Growth the price implies

19.6%/yr

A model estimate, not a price target or recommendation. Inputs: risk-free 5.09%, equity risk premium 4.23% (Damodaran). How it works.

What this means

Weak business, priced high

Our models put fair value below today's price, so a lot of good news may already be in the price. A high score does not guarantee a good outcome; it shifts the odds a little. Use the checklist as a prompt for your own research.

Before you invest · decision checklist

I understand how this company makes money Business quality is average or better 31 The price is not above fair value $161 fair value Debt looks manageable 3.0× EBITDA Revenue has been growing 17.7% a year Profits are backed by cash There are no red flags 1 raised I know what share of my savings this would be

Ticked boxes are filled in from our data; the rest are yours to answer.

The five-lens scan

Every score explained in one sentence, ranked against Financials peers. Open a lens to see the numbers behind it.

Valuation Weak

17/100

Expensive against its sector on earnings and cash flow.

See the numbers →

EBIT / EV yield3.4%

Fair value vs price0.6×

Growth Fair

69/100

Growing at a typical pace for its sector.

See the numbers →

Revenue growth (3y)17.7%

EPS growth (3y)3.4%

Growth consistency100%

Profitability Weak

39/100

Earns lower returns on its capital than most peers.

See the numbers →

Return on invested capital5.8%

Operating margin16.7%

Financial health Weak

23/100

Balance sheet is more stretched than most peers.

See the numbers →

Piotroski F-Score5 / 9

Net debt / EBITDA3.0×

Interest cover4.1×

Dividends Fair

59/100

Dividend is typical for its sector.

See the numbers →

Dividend yield1.1%

Dividend growth15.8%

Quarterly results: last 6 quarters

+14.4%

Mar '25

+16.1%

Jun '25

+19.9%

Sep '25

+33.6%

Dec '25

+27.7%

Mar '26

+24.2%

Jun '26

Revenue against the same quarter a year earlier. Latest quarter revenue $4.0B, diluted EPS $1.25.

Compare with peers

BRO Brown & Brown, Inc.53 AON Aon plc50 MRSH Marsh & Mclennan Compa...50 WTW Willis Towers Watson P...43

Other Insurance Brokers companies by X-Ray Score.

Fundamentals checklist

● 2 Good · ● 2 Average · ● 9 Bad

Cash quality

Earnings backed by cashAverage

Risk models

Altman Z''Bad

Piotroski F-ScoreBad

Growth

EPS growth (3y)Bad

Revenue growth (3y)Good

Growth consistencyGood

Balance sheet

Current ratioAverage

Net debt / EBITDABad

Interest coverBad

Valuation

Fair value vs priceBad

EBIT / EV yieldBad

Profitability

Return on invested capitalBad

Operating marginBad

Each check is graded against the company's sector, not a fixed number. Checklist score 35/100.

Financials

	FY21	FY22	FY23	FY24	FY25
Revenue	$8.2B	$8.6B	$10.1B	$11.6B	$13.9B
Operating income	$1.2B	$1.6B	$1.5B	$2.3B	$2.5B
Net income	$907M	$1.1B	$970M	$1.5B	$1.5B
Operating cash flow	$1.4B	$1.4B	$2.0B	$2.6B	$1.9B
Operating margin	14.6%	18.5%	14.7%	19.5%	18.0%
Free cash flow	–	–	–	–	–
Diluted EPS	$4.37	$5.19	$4.42	$6.50	$5.74

Fiscal years, from SEC filings.

Technical summary

Daily

Bullish

11 bullish · 1 neutral · 4 bearish

Weekly

Strongly bullish

10 bullish · 1 neutral · 1 bearish

Monthly

Bullish

5 bullish · 1 neutral · 2 bearish

Moving averages (daily)

SMA 10	236.0	Bullish
EMA 10	239.4	Bullish
SMA 20	232.9	Bullish
EMA 20	237.9	Bullish
SMA 50	245.8	Bullish
EMA 50	240.6	Bullish
SMA 100	239.6	Bullish
EMA 100	239.2	Bullish
SMA 200	230.8	Bullish
EMA 200	241.2	Bullish

Oscillators (daily)

RSI (14)	65.63	Neutral
MACD (12, 26)	-0.10	Bearish
Momentum (12)	11.74	Bullish
Stochastic %K (14)	98.55	Bearish
Williams %R (14)	-1.45	Bearish
CCI (20)	293.0	Bearish

Pivot points (classic, last session)

247.5

249.2

252.0

Pivot

253.7

256.6

258.2

261.1

Signals describe what the chart is doing, not what to do. Moving averages: price above the average is bullish. Oscillators use the usual thresholds (RSI 30/70, Stochastic 20/80, CCI ±100, Williams %R −80/−20; MACD and momentum above zero are bullish). Weekly and monthly views use closing prices only.

Dividends

Paid, last 12 months

2.75 USD

Yield on today's price

1.08%

Frequency

Quarterly

Next ex-dividend date

Not announced

Ex-dividend date	Amount per share
8 Sep 2026	0.7000
5 Jun 2026	0.7000
6 Mar 2026	0.7000
5 Dec 2025	0.6500
5 Sep 2025	0.6500
6 Jun 2025	0.6500
7 Mar 2025	0.6500
6 Dec 2024	0.6000
6 Sep 2024	0.6000
7 Jun 2024	0.6000
29 Feb 2024	0.6000
30 Nov 2023	0.5500