Is Carnival Corp Ltd. (CCL) undervalued or overvalued?

Our model estimates a fair value of about $86 against a price of $25.90 (Data under review, +0% to fair value). It blends a 10-year DCF, sector multiples and earnings-power value and is a model estimate, not advice.

What is the X-Ray Score for CCL?

Carnival Corp Ltd. has an X-Ray Score of 57 out of 100, built from valuation, growth, profitability, financial health and dividend lenses ranked against Consumer Discretionary peers.

Where does the data for CCL come from?

Financial statements come from SEC EDGAR filings, prices from exchange price feeds, and industry betas and equity risk premium from Damodaran Online (NYU Stern).

Carnival Corp Ltd. (CCL)

Consumer Discretionary · Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines · US stock · S&P 500 component

$25.90 ▼ -0.56 (2.12%)

At close 16 Oct 2026 · USD · Volume 22,602,400

Compare with BKNG Historical data Research report SEC filings

Fair valueData under review

$86

$43fair band $52–$120$129

Day's range

$25.78 – $26.94

52-week range

$21.45 – $33.49

About Carnival Corp Ltd.

Carnival Corporation operates cruise lines such as Carnival Cruise Line, Princess Cruises, Holland America Line, Costa and Cunard. It sells vacation packages on its ships to travelers in North America, Europe and elsewhere. The company earns money from ticket sales and from spending on board, including food, drink, excursions and casino and retail services. Fuel prices, fleet occupancy and borrowing costs are important to its financial results.

Sales came to $27.6 billion in the last twelve months, having expanded at 29.8% a year across the last three years. Its operating margin came to 16.0%, and return on invested capital was 11%. Net debt stands at 3.1 times EBITDA. The company pays a dividend, yielding 1.7%. On the site's X-Ray Score it receives 57 out of 100.

Written with AI from public information and the filing figures on this page, then checked automatically for unsupported numbers. It can contain mistakes: read the company's own filings below before relying on it.

Price chart

Historical data & CSV

52-wk range $21.45 – $33.49Volume 22,602,400Daily, split-adjusted

Vitals

Market cap$35.4B

52-week range$21.45 – $33.49

Volume (last day)22,602,400

P/E (TTM)11.5

EBIT / EV yield7.6%

Free-cash-flow yield9.0%

Dividend yield1.7%

Revenue (TTM)$27.6B

Net income (TTM)$3.1B

Operating margin16.0%

Return on capital10.8%

Debt incl. leases$23.9B

Cash & securities$1.2B

Debt = borrowings plus lease liabilities. Cash & securities = cash, equivalents and short-term marketable securities (long-term securities are not counted, so net cash can be understated for companies like Apple). Net debt = debt minus cash & securities. Source: latest SEC 10-Q/10-K. EBIT / EV yield = operating profit divided by market cap plus net debt.

Fair value estimate

$86model spread $72 – $97

Data under review +0.0% to fair value

Equal blend of three models: peer multiples, a fundamentals-adjusted multiple (growth, ROIC and margin) and a 10-year DCF scaled to the market's average. Earnings-power value (no growth) is a floor and not part of the blend. Model uncertainty is High, so the safety margin is 40%.

Price $26

Undervalued < $52Fair $52 – $120Overvalued > $120

10-year DCF (market-scaled)

$130

Peer multiples

$46

Earnings power floor (not blended)

$-167

Fundamentals-adjusted multiple

$81

Growth the price implies

4.5%/yr

A model estimate, not a price target or recommendation. Inputs: risk-free 5.09%, equity risk premium 4.23% (Damodaran). How it works.

What this means

Read the lenses below

The price sits inside our fair-value band. A high score does not guarantee a good outcome; it shifts the odds a little. Use the checklist as a prompt for your own research.

Before you invest · decision checklist

I understand how this company makes money Business quality is average or better 36 The price is not above fair value $86 fair value Debt looks manageable 3.1× EBITDA Revenue has been growing 29.8% a year Profits are backed by cash There are no red flags none raised I know what share of my savings this would be

Ticked boxes are filled in from our data; the rest are yours to answer.

The five-lens scan

Every score explained in one sentence, ranked against Consumer Discretionary peers. Open a lens to see the numbers behind it.

Valuation Strong

86/100

Cheap against its sector on earnings and cash flow.

See the numbers →

EBIT / EV yield7.6%

Free-cash-flow yield9.0%

Fair value vs price3.3×

Growth Strong

77/100

Growing faster than most of its sector.

See the numbers →

Revenue growth (3y)29.8%

Growth consistency100%

Profitability Weak

36/100

Earns lower returns on its capital than most peers.

See the numbers →

Return on invested capital10.8%

Operating margin16.0%

Financial health Weak

36/100

Balance sheet is more stretched than most peers.

See the numbers →

Piotroski F-Score7 / 9

Net debt / EBITDA3.1×

Interest cover3.8×

Dividends Weak

42/100

Dividend is modest or less certain than peers.

See the numbers →

Dividend yield1.7%

Dividends vs free cash flow19%

Quarterly results: last 6 quarters

+9.5%

May '25

+3.3%

Aug '25

+6.6%

Nov '25

+6.1%

Feb '26

+5.3%

May '26

+3.5%

Aug '26

Revenue against the same quarter a year earlier. Latest quarter revenue $8.4B, diluted EPS $1.40.

Compare with peers

BKNG Booking Holdings Inc.69 EXPE Expedia Group, Inc.64 ABNB Airbnb, Inc.51 RCL Royal Caribbean Cruise...48

Other Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines companies by X-Ray Score.

Fundamentals checklist

● 7 Good · ● 1 Average · ● 5 Bad

Cash quality

Earnings backed by cashGood

Free-cash-flow yieldGood

Risk models

Altman Z''Bad

Piotroski F-ScoreGood

Growth

Revenue growth (3y)Good

Growth consistencyGood

Balance sheet

Current ratioBad

Net debt / EBITDABad

Interest coverBad

Valuation

Fair value vs priceGood

EBIT / EV yieldGood

Profitability

Return on invested capitalBad

Operating marginAverage

Each check is graded against the company's sector, not a fixed number. Checklist score 60/100.

Financials

	FY21	FY22	FY23	FY24	FY25
Revenue	$1.9B	$12.2B	$21.6B	$25.0B	$26.6B
Operating income	−$7.1B	−$4.4B	$2.0B	$3.6B	$4.5B
Net income	−$9.5B	−$6.1B	−$74M	$1.9B	$2.8B
Operating cash flow	−$4.1B	−$1.7B	$4.3B	$5.9B	$6.2B
Operating margin	-371.5%	-36.0%	9.1%	14.3%	16.8%
Free cash flow	−$7.7B	−$6.6B	$997M	$1.3B	$2.6B
Diluted EPS	$-8.46	$-5.16	$-0.06	$1.44	$2.02

Fiscal years, from SEC filings.

Technical summary

Daily

Neutral

7 bullish · 4 neutral · 5 bearish

Weekly

Neutral

5 bullish · 1 neutral · 6 bearish

Monthly

Neutral

3 bullish · 1 neutral · 4 bearish

Moving averages (daily)

SMA 10	26.23	Bearish
EMA 10	25.92	Bearish
SMA 20	24.77	Bullish
EMA 20	25.29	Bullish
SMA 50	24.88	Bullish
EMA 50	25.15	Bullish
SMA 100	26.29	Bearish
EMA 100	25.74	Bullish
SMA 200	27.06	Bearish
EMA 200	26.28	Bearish

Oscillators (daily)

RSI (14)	56.48	Neutral
MACD (12, 26)	0.65	Bullish
Momentum (12)	5.54	Bullish
Stochastic %K (14)	64.63	Neutral
Williams %R (14)	-35.37	Neutral
CCI (20)	61.53	Neutral

Pivot points (classic, last session)

24.31

25.05

25.47

Pivot

26.21

26.63

27.37

27.79

Signals describe what the chart is doing, not what to do. Moving averages: price above the average is bullish. Oscillators use the usual thresholds (RSI 30/70, Stochastic 20/80, CCI ±100, Williams %R −80/−20; MACD and momentum above zero are bullish). Weekly and monthly views use closing prices only.