Progressive Corp (PGR)
Financials · Property & Casualty Insurance · US stock · S&P 500 component
$218.49
▲ +4.74 (2.22%)
Fair valueOvervalued
$116 −46.9% to fair value
$58fair band $81–$151$174
Day's range
$213.76 – $218.72
52-week range
$187.69 – $239.26
About Progressive Corp
Progressive is an insurance group best known for personal auto insurance, and it also sells home, motorcycle, boat and commercial vehicle coverage. It reaches customers directly online and by phone, and through independent agents. Revenue comes from premiums and from investment income, and results depend on how accurately it prices risk and on claims costs and weather events.
The company reported revenue of $91.1 billion for the last twelve months at Progressive Corp. Revenue growth over the past three years averaged 20.9% a year. It kept an operating margin of 16.6%. The return on invested capital reached 37%, a measure of profit earned on the money invested in the business. The company pays a dividend, and the yield is 6.4%. On the site's X-Ray Score, it rates 66 out of 100.
Written with AI from public information and the filing figures on this page, then checked automatically for unsupported numbers. It can contain mistakes: read the company's own filings below before relying on it.
Price chart
52-wk range $187.69 – $239.26Volume 2,634,529Daily, split-adjusted
Vitals
Market cap$127.6B
52-week range$187.69 – $239.26
Volume (last day)2,634,529
P/E (TTM)11.0
EBIT / EV yield12.0%
Free-cash-flow yield12.5%
Dividend yield6.4%
Revenue (TTM)$91.1B
Net income (TTM)$11.7B
Operating margin16.6%
Return on capital37.1%
Debt incl. leasesData missing
Cash & securities$2.2B
Debt = borrowings plus lease liabilities. Cash & securities = cash, equivalents and short-term marketable securities (long-term securities are not counted, so net cash can be understated for companies like Apple). Net debt = debt minus cash & securities. Source: latest SEC 10-Q/10-K. EBIT / EV yield = operating profit divided by market cap plus net debt.
Fair value estimate
$116
Overvalued
−46.9% to fair value
Equal blend of three models: peer multiples, a fundamentals-adjusted multiple (growth, ROIC and margin) and a 10-year DCF scaled to the market's average. Earnings-power value (no growth) is a floor and not part of the blend. Model uncertainty is Medium, so the safety margin is 30%.
Price $218
Undervalued < $81Fair $81 – $151Overvalued > $151
Excess-return (bank)
$90
A model estimate, not a price target or recommendation. Inputs: risk-free 5.09%, equity risk premium 4.23% (Damodaran). How it works.
What this means
Average business, priced high
Our models put fair value below today's price, so a lot of good news may already be in the price. A high score does not guarantee a good outcome; it shifts the odds a little. Use the checklist as a prompt for your own research.
Before you invest · decision checklist
Ticked boxes are filled in from our data; the rest are yours to answer.
The five-lens scan
Every score explained in one sentence, ranked against Financials peers. Open a lens to see the numbers behind it.
Valuation
Fair
51/100
Priced about in line with its sector.
See the numbers →
EBIT / EV yield12.0%
Free-cash-flow yield12.5%
Fair value vs price0.5×
Growth
Strong
87/100
Growing faster than most of its sector.
See the numbers →
Revenue growth (3y)20.9%
EPS growth (3y)153.5%
Growth consistency100%
Profitability
Fair
65/100
Returns on capital are typical for its sector.
See the numbers →
Return on invested capital37.1%
Operating margin16.6%
Financial health
Fair
62/100
Balance sheet is in typical shape for its sector.
See the numbers →
Piotroski F-Score6 / 9
Interest coverNo interest cost
Dividends
Fair
61/100
Dividend is typical for its sector.
See the numbers →
Dividend yield6.4%
Dividends vs free cash flow51%
Dividend growth130.6%
Quarterly results: last 6 quarters
+18.4%
Mar '25
+21.3%
Jun '25
+14.2%
Sep '25
+12.2%
Dec '25
+8.7%
Mar '26
+7.3%
Jun '26
Revenue against the same quarter a year earlier. Latest quarter revenue $23.6B, diluted EPS $5.67.
Compare with peers
ACGL Arch Capital Group Ltd...67 HIG Hartford Insurance Gro...66 CINF Cincinnati Financial C...64 ALL Allstate Corp55Other Property & Casualty Insurance companies by X-Ray Score.
Fundamentals checklist
● 9 Good · ● 1 Average · ● 2 BadCash quality
Earnings backed by cashGood
Free-cash-flow yieldGood
Risk models
Piotroski F-ScoreAverage
Growth
EPS growth (3y)Good
Free-cash-flow growth (3y)Good
Revenue growth (3y)Good
Growth consistencyGood
Balance sheet
Interest coverGood
Valuation
Fair value vs priceBad
EBIT / EV yieldGood
Profitability
Return on invested capitalGood
Operating marginBad
Each check is graded against the company's sector, not a fixed number. Checklist score 71/100.
Financials
| FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $47.7B | $49.6B | $62.1B | $75.4B | $87.7B |
| Operating income | $4.4B | $1.2B | $5.2B | $11.0B | $14.5B |
| Net income | $3.4B | $722M | $3.9B | $8.5B | $11.3B |
| Operating cash flow | $7.8B | $6.8B | $10.6B | $15.1B | $17.5B |
| Operating margin | 9.3% | 2.4% | 8.3% | 14.6% | 16.5% |
| Free cash flow | $7.5B | $6.6B | $10.4B | $14.8B | $17.2B |
| Diluted EPS | $5.66 | $1.18 | $6.58 | $14.40 | $19.23 |
Fiscal years, from SEC filings.
Technical summary
Daily
Strongly bullish
12 bullish · 4 neutral · 0 bearish
Weekly
Strongly bullish
10 bullish · 1 neutral · 1 bearish
Monthly
Strongly bullish
6 bullish · 1 neutral · 1 bearish
Moving averages (daily)
| SMA 10 | 216.4 | Bullish |
| EMA 10 | 215.9 | Bullish |
| SMA 20 | 212.1 | Bullish |
| EMA 20 | 214.8 | Bullish |
| SMA 50 | 214.7 | Bullish |
| EMA 50 | 214.2 | Bullish |
| SMA 100 | 213.1 | Bullish |
| EMA 100 | 212.8 | Bullish |
| SMA 200 | 208.4 | Bullish |
| EMA 200 | 212.7 | Bullish |
Oscillators (daily)
| RSI (14) | 55.15 | Neutral |
| MACD (12, 26) | 0.97 | Bullish |
| Momentum (12) | 5.44 | Bullish |
| Stochastic %K (14) | 76.76 | Neutral |
| Williams %R (14) | -23.24 | Neutral |
| CCI (20) | 78.35 | Neutral |
Pivot points (classic, last session)
S3 210.3 | S2 212.0 | S1 215.3 | Pivot 217.0 | R1 220.2 | R2 222.0 | R3 225.2 |
Signals describe what the chart is doing, not what to do. Moving averages: price above the average is bullish. Oscillators use the usual thresholds (RSI 30/70, Stochastic 20/80, CCI ±100, Williams %R −80/−20; MACD and momentum above zero are bullish). Weekly and monthly views use closing prices only.
Dividends
Paid, last 12 months
13.90 USD
Yield on today's price
6.36%
Frequency
Quarterly
Next ex-dividend date
Not announced
| Ex-dividend date | Amount per share |
|---|---|
| 1 Oct 2026 | 0.1000 |
| 2 Jul 2026 | 0.1000 |
| 2 Apr 2026 | 0.1000 |
| 2 Jan 2026 | 13.6000 |
| 2 Oct 2025 | 0.1000 |
| 3 Jul 2025 | 0.1000 |
| 3 Apr 2025 | 0.1000 |
| 10 Jan 2025 | 4.6000 |
| 3 Oct 2024 | 0.1000 |
| 3 Jul 2024 | 0.1000 |
| 3 Apr 2024 | 0.1000 |
| 18 Jan 2024 | 0.8500 |
Ex-dividend dates and amounts from EODHD. Shown as declared, before tax.
PGR SEC filings
14 Oct 2026
8-KSEC EDGAR
Results of operations
18 Sep 2026
8-KSEC EDGAR
Regulation FD disclosure
19 Aug 2026
8-KSEC EDGAR
Regulation FD disclosure
10 Aug 2026
8-KSEC EDGAR
Regulation FD disclosure
3 Aug 2026
10-QSEC EDGAR
Quarterly report
15 Jul 2026
8-KSEC EDGAR
Results of operations
17 Jun 2026
8-KSEC EDGAR
Director or officer change; Regulation FD disclosure
20 May 2026
8-KSEC EDGAR
Regulation FD disclosure
Where the numbers come from
Statements SEC EDGAR filings (10-K, 10-Q), quarters derived from year-to-date figures.
Prices end-of-day closes, split-adjusted.
Industry inputs beta, multiples and equity risk premium from Damodaran Online (NYU Stern).
StocksXray is for education only and is not financial advice. Scores and fair values are model estimates from public filings and carry uncertainty.