Industrials · Air Freight & Logistics · US stock · price as of 16 Oct 2026
Key indicators
Price
$97.48
52-week range
$78.68 – $116.86
Market cap
$83.0B
P/E (trailing)
18.1×
EV / EBITDA
10.8×
Free-cash-flow yield
6.6%
Dividend yield
6.7%
Revenue (last 12 months)
$89.9B
Revenue growth (3y a year)
−4.0%
Operating margin
7.3%
Return on invested capital
14.7%
Net debt / EBITDA
2.1×
Fair value
Blended fair value$139.51 range $133 – $146
Versus priceUndervalued+43% to fair value
Peer multiples
$149.85
Fundamentals-adjusted multiple
$156.66
10-year DCF (market-scaled)
$112.00
Earnings power value (floor, not blended)
$90.80
Model uncertainty
Medium
X-Ray Score
44/ 100 · High confidence · ahead of 25% of sector peers
Valuation82
Growth9
Profitability48
Financial health23
Dividends48
Five-year price chart navy: price · brown: 200-day average · blue band: fair value range
Executive summary
United Parcel Service delivers packages and freight and manages supply chains for customers around the world. It runs a large ground network and air fleet within the United States and across international markets, moving parcels for retailers, manufacturers, healthcare firms and consumers. The business is organised into U.S. domestic package delivery, international package delivery and supply chain solutions, which includes freight forwarding, logistics and healthcare services.
UPS earns revenue from delivery charges, freight and logistics fees and related services. Sales for the last twelve months were $89.9 billion, though revenue growth over the last three years was -4.0% a year, a decline. The operating margin is 7.3%, and the business earns a profit of 15% on the capital invested in it. It has net debt of 2.1 times EBITDA. Shareholders receive a dividend with a yield of 6.7%.
StocksXray gives United Parcel Service Inc an X-Ray Score of 44 out of 100 (high confidence), ahead of 25% of the S&P 500 stocks in its sector. Its strongest lens is valuation (82) and its weakest is growth (9).
Our fair value blend is $139.51 (range $133.17 to $146.16). At $97.48 the stock trades 30% below that blend, so the label is "Undervalued" with medium model uncertainty. Fair value is a range, not a price target.
XStocksXray
United Parcel Service Inc (UPS)
Valuation history multiples at each fiscal year-end price; the last column uses today's price and the last twelve months
FY2021
FY2022
FY2023
FY2024
FY2025
Now
Price
$170.04
$142.48
$133.99
$112.64
$94.69
$97.48
Market cap
$149.3B
$124.7B
$115.2B
$96.4B
$80.5B
$83.0B
P/E
11.6×
10.8×
17.2×
16.7×
14.4×
18.1×
EV / revenue
1.7×
1.4×
1.4×
1.2×
1.1×
1.1×
EV / EBITDA
10.2×
8.4×
11.0×
9.7×
9.1×
10.8×
Price / free cash flow
13.8×
13.4×
22.7×
15.5×
16.9×
15.2×
Free-cash-flow yield
7.2%
7.5%
4.4%
6.4%
5.9%
6.6%
Price / book
10.5×
6.3×
6.7×
5.8×
5.0×
5.5×
Dividend yield
2.40%
4.27%
4.84%
5.79%
6.93%
6.73%
Fundamentals checklist ● 4 Good · ● 3 Average · ● 8 Bad · each check graded against the sector
Cash quality
Earnings backed by cash−6.0%Good
Free-cash-flow yield6.6%Good
Risk models
Altman Z score2.0×Bad
Piotroski F-Score5 of 9Bad
Growth
EPS growth (3y)−20.8%Bad
Free-cash-flow growth (3y)−20.1%Bad
Revenue growth (3y)−4.0%Bad
Growth consistency30%Bad
Balance sheet
Current ratio1.2×Average
Net debt / EBITDA2.1×Average
Interest cover6.0×Bad
Valuation
Fair value vs price1.4×Good
EBIT / EV yield6.4%Good
Profitability
Return on invested capital14.7%Average
Operating margin7.3%Bad
Red flags
Dividend may be at risk — Dividends exceed free cash flow
XStocksXray
United Parcel Service Inc (UPS)
Financials US$ millions, from SEC filings; last column is the last twelve months
Income statement
FY21
FY22
FY23
FY24
FY25
LTM
Revenue
97,287
100,338
90,958
91,070
88,661
89,930
Gross profit
–
–
–
–
–
–
Operating income
12,810
13,094
9,141
8,468
7,867
6,576
Net income
12,890
11,548
6,708
5,782
5,572
4,570
Diluted EPS ($)
14.68
13.20
7.80
6.75
6.56
5.38
Free cash flow
10,813
9,335
5,080
6,213
4,765
5,457
Gross margin
–
–
–
–
–
–
Operating margin
13.2%
13.0%
10.0%
9.3%
8.9%
7.3%
Net margin
13.2%
11.5%
7.4%
6.3%
6.3%
5.1%
Balance sheet
FY21
FY22
FY23
FY24
FY25
LTM
Total assets
69,405
71,124
70,857
70,070
73,090
71,267
Cash
10,255
5,602
3,206
6,112
5,887
4,653
Total debt
21,915
19,662
22,264
21,284
24,127
24,484
Equity
14,253
19,786
17,306
16,718
16,227
15,067
Dividend per share ($)
4.08
6.08
6.48
6.52
6.56
6.56
Revenue and net income US$ billions: navy revenue, teal net income
Every number comes from SEC filings, end-of-day prices and the StocksXray models described on the methodology page. The X-Ray Score ranks each metric against the company's own sector. Fair value blends three models and carries a typical error of about 40%, so treat it as a range. Analyst ratings, price targets and earnings-call summaries are not part of this report. Educational research, not financial advice; read the disclaimer.