US 10-year Treasury: Commitments of Traders

CFTC positions as of the close on 13 October 2026. UST 10Y NOTE - CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE, contracts of $100,000 face value.

Speculators net short987,276

Change on the week−145,165

Rank in 2 years4th

Open interest7,203,725

This week

In the week to 13 October 2026, non-commercial traders in US 10-year Treasury held a net short position of 987,276 contracts. That is 145,165 contracts fewer than a week earlier. Commercial traders were net long 933,877, which is the other side of the same market. A year ago the speculative net was short 726,731, so it has moved by 260,545 contracts since. Longs were 25.6% of speculative positions. 467 traders reported.

Bar charts in detail

1. Who is long and who is short, in the week to 13 October 2026

Short positions extend to the left in red, long positions to the right in blue, each scaled against the biggest single side in this market. Percentages are of open interest.

Non-commercial (speculators) net −987,276

1,506,730 20.9% 519,454 7.2%

Commercial (producers, hedgers) net +933,877

4,160,153 57.8% 5,094,030 70.7%

Non-reportable (small traders) net +53,399

412,748 5.7% 466,147 6.5%

2. How the week's change was made

Change in each side since the previous report, as published by the CFTC. A rising net can come from longs being added, shorts being closed, or both; this shows which.

Non-commercial long −79,944

Non-commercial short +65,221

Commercial long +123,415

Commercial short +925

Open interest +125,530

3. Speculative net position, week by week

Last 52 weeks. Blue bars are net long, red bars net short. Hover a bar for the week and the value.

4. Weekly change in the speculative net

Blue bars: speculators added to their net position that week. Red bars: they reduced it. Tall bars of either colour are the unusual weeks.

5. Open interest, week by week

Total contracts outstanding. Rising open interest means money is entering the contract; falling means positions are being closed.

Where each group sits against its own year

0 means a group is at its most net short of the last 52 weeks, 100 at its most net long. It says where positioning is, not what price does next.

Commercials (producers, hedgers) the group classic COT analysis calls "smart money"

97 net +933,877 (+13.0% of OI)

Near its most net long of the year.

Speculators (funds, managed money) trend-following money with no commercial business in it

1 net −987,276 (−13.7% of OI)

At its most net short of the year.

Small traders (non-reportable) the group classic analysis calls "dumb money"

22 net +53,399 (+0.7% of OI)

In the bottom quarter of its range.

Who holds what

Trader category	Long	Short	Net	Week change (long)
Non-commercial (speculators)	519,454	1,506,730	−987,276	−79,944
Commercial (producers, hedgers)	5,094,030	4,160,153	+933,877	+123,415
Non-reportable (small traders)	466,147	412,748	+53,399	–
Non-commercial spreading	1,124,094 on both sides		0	–

Spreading is a speculator holding an equal long and short in different months, so it nets to zero and is listed apart. The three net figures should sum to zero, because a futures market cannot be net long or net short overall, only differently distributed between the people in it. In the Commission's published figures they occasionally miss by a contract or two: for the week shown the three nets sum to 0. That is rounding in the source, not an error on this page, and we leave the CFTC's numbers as published rather than adjusting one to make the column balance.

The last two years

Speculative net position in US 10-year Treasury, Oct 2024 to Oct 2026. Above the line is net long, below it net short.

Week	Spec net	Change	Long share	Open interest
13 Oct 2026	−987,276	−145,165	25.6%	7,203,725
6 Oct 2026	−842,112	+4,896	29.4%	7,078,195
29 Sep 2026	−847,007	−21,761	29.9%	6,939,264
22 Sep 2026	−825,246	−12,728	27.6%	6,979,520
15 Sep 2026	−812,518	+14,731	27.5%	6,858,893
8 Sep 2026	−827,248	+69,986	27.6%	6,255,058
1 Sep 2026	−897,236	−90,450	26.4%	6,355,835
25 Aug 2026	−806,784	+69,015	27.1%	7,027,317
18 Aug 2026	−875,800	−44,597	26.9%	6,694,536
11 Aug 2026	−831,204	+100,049	26.7%	6,683,260
4 Aug 2026	−931,252	−67,936	24.7%	6,487,708
28 Jul 2026	−863,315	−54,678	26.4%	6,428,473
21 Jul 2026	−808,637	−4,708	26.5%	6,439,641
14 Jul 2026	−803,929	−1,246	26.2%	6,366,052
7 Jul 2026	−802,683	−19,420	27.3%	6,303,304
30 Jun 2026	−783,263	+10,138	26.8%	6,245,400

Across the 104 weeks held, the speculative net ranged from -1,088,676 to -531,100, averaging -800,397. This week's -987,276 sits at the 4th percentile of that range. Two years is a short window, and a position that looks far from its recent average can stay there for months. It describes where positioning has been, not where price goes.

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What this report is, and what it is not

The CFTC requires anyone holding more than a set number of contracts in a US futures market to report their position. Every Friday afternoon the Commission publishes the totals as they stood at Tuesday's close, split by the kind of trader holding them. The gap between Tuesday and Friday is deliberate and cannot be shortened: the figures are always three days old when you first see them.

Non-commercial traders have no commercial use for the underlying. Commercial traders do: a miner selling forward, an airline hedging fuel, a mill buying wheat. Non-reportable is everybody below the reporting threshold. The categories describe why someone is registered, not how clever they are, and the common framing of commercials as "smart money" does not follow from the data: a producer hedging output sells into a rising market because that is their business, not because they predict a fall.

Nothing on this page is a signal. Positioning shows how crowded a trade was on a particular Tuesday. It does not say when a crowd disperses, and crowded positions have stayed crowded for many months at a time in most of these markets.

Other rates markets

Source: CFTC Commitments of Traders, legacy futures-only report, contract market code 043602. Net positions, long share and the two-year rank are our arithmetic on the Commission's published figures; every input is in the tables above. Educational only, not financial advice.