US 2-year Treasury: Commitments of Traders

CFTC positions as of the close on 13 October 2026. UST 2Y NOTE - CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE, contracts of $200,000 face value.

Speculators net short919,940

Change on the week−55,359

Rank in 2 years95th

Open interest4,717,364

This week

In the week to 13 October 2026, non-commercial traders in US 2-year Treasury held a net short position of 919,940 contracts. That is 55,359 contracts fewer than a week earlier. Commercial traders were net long 883,514, which is the other side of the same market. A year ago the speculative net was short 1,198,249, so it has moved by 278,309 contracts since. Longs were 30.2% of speculative positions. 505 traders reported.

Bar charts in detail

1. Who is long and who is short, in the week to 13 October 2026

Short positions extend to the left in red, long positions to the right in blue, each scaled against the biggest single side in this market. Percentages are of open interest.

Non-commercial (speculators) net −919,940

1,621,443 34.4% 701,503 14.9%

Commercial (producers, hedgers) net +883,514

2,646,874 56.1% 3,530,388 74.8%

Non-reportable (small traders) net +36,427

176,815 3.7% 213,242 4.5%

2. How the week's change was made

Change in each side since the previous report, as published by the CFTC. A rising net can come from longs being added, shorts being closed, or both; this shows which.

Non-commercial long +4,940

Non-commercial short +60,299

Commercial long +64,632

Commercial short +1,887

Open interest +79,247

3. Speculative net position, week by week

Last 52 weeks. Blue bars are net long, red bars net short. Hover a bar for the week and the value.

4. Weekly change in the speculative net

Blue bars: speculators added to their net position that week. Red bars: they reduced it. Tall bars of either colour are the unusual weeks.

5. Open interest, week by week

Total contracts outstanding. Rising open interest means money is entering the contract; falling means positions are being closed.

Where each group sits against its own year

0 means a group is at its most net short of the last 52 weeks, 100 at its most net long. It says where positioning is, not what price does next.

Commercials (producers, hedgers) the group classic COT analysis calls "smart money"

14 net +883,514 (+18.7% of OI)

In the bottom quarter of its range.

Speculators (funds, managed money) trend-following money with no commercial business in it

87 net −919,940 (−19.5% of OI)

In the top quarter of its range.

Small traders (non-reportable) the group classic analysis calls "dumb money"

22 net +36,427 (+0.8% of OI)

In the bottom quarter of its range.

Who holds what

Trader category	Long	Short	Net	Week change (long)
Non-commercial (speculators)	701,503	1,621,443	−919,940	+4,940
Commercial (producers, hedgers)	3,530,388	2,646,874	+883,514	+64,632
Non-reportable (small traders)	213,242	176,815	+36,427	–
Non-commercial spreading	272,231 on both sides		0	–

Spreading is a speculator holding an equal long and short in different months, so it nets to zero and is listed apart. The three net figures should sum to zero, because a futures market cannot be net long or net short overall, only differently distributed between the people in it. In the Commission's published figures they occasionally miss by a contract or two: for the week shown the three nets sum to 1. That is rounding in the source, not an error on this page, and we leave the CFTC's numbers as published rather than adjusting one to make the column balance.

The last two years

Speculative net position in US 2-year Treasury, Oct 2024 to Oct 2026. Above the line is net long, below it net short.

Week	Spec net	Change	Long share	Open interest
13 Oct 2026	−919,940	−55,359	30.2%	4,717,364
6 Oct 2026	−864,582	−64,793	30.9%	4,638,117
29 Sep 2026	−799,789	+121,211	32.9%	4,678,171
22 Sep 2026	−921,000	−30,937	30.5%	4,726,487
15 Sep 2026	−890,063	+54,776	30.0%	4,630,504
8 Sep 2026	−944,839	−53,645	26.9%	4,519,523
1 Sep 2026	−891,194	−26,434	28.3%	4,497,715
25 Aug 2026	−864,761	+76,017	29.4%	4,783,300
18 Aug 2026	−940,778	+88,573	28.4%	4,589,353
11 Aug 2026	−1,029,351	−20,345	27.2%	4,573,505
4 Aug 2026	−1,009,006	+113,928	27.6%	4,553,675
28 Jul 2026	−1,122,934	+40,151	25.2%	4,593,631
21 Jul 2026	−1,163,085	+8,513	22.9%	4,473,842
14 Jul 2026	−1,171,597	+96,891	23.7%	4,652,454
7 Jul 2026	−1,268,489	+20,084	21.4%	4,592,857
30 Jun 2026	−1,288,573	+34,507	22.0%	4,621,622

Across the 104 weeks held, the speculative net ranged from -1,754,980 to -799,789, averaging -1,279,168. This week's -919,940 sits at the 95th percentile of that range. Two years is a short window, and a position that looks far from its recent average can stay there for months. It describes where positioning has been, not where price goes.

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What this report is, and what it is not

The CFTC requires anyone holding more than a set number of contracts in a US futures market to report their position. Every Friday afternoon the Commission publishes the totals as they stood at Tuesday's close, split by the kind of trader holding them. The gap between Tuesday and Friday is deliberate and cannot be shortened: the figures are always three days old when you first see them.

Non-commercial traders have no commercial use for the underlying. Commercial traders do: a miner selling forward, an airline hedging fuel, a mill buying wheat. Non-reportable is everybody below the reporting threshold. The categories describe why someone is registered, not how clever they are, and the common framing of commercials as "smart money" does not follow from the data: a producer hedging output sells into a rising market because that is their business, not because they predict a fall.

Nothing on this page is a signal. Positioning shows how crowded a trade was on a particular Tuesday. It does not say when a crowd disperses, and crowded positions have stayed crowded for many months at a time in most of these markets.

Other rates markets

Source: CFTC Commitments of Traders, legacy futures-only report, contract market code 042601. Net positions, long share and the two-year rank are our arithmetic on the Commission's published figures; every input is in the tables above. Educational only, not financial advice.