Brazil: economy, interest rate and stock market

13.75%   set by Central Bank of Brazil. Last change: −0.25 pt on 17 Sep 2026. Over 12 months: −1.25 pt. As of 13 Oct 2026.

All countries: central bank interest rates. Rates move stocks through borrowing costs and the currency: rising rates usually weigh on rate-sensitive stocks and help banks, falling rates the opposite.

Risk-on   4 of 5 price checks on Bovespa are positive, as of 16 Oct 2026.

4 or 5 positive = Risk-on, 2 or 3 = Mixed, 0 or 1 = Risk-off. Each check uses only prices up to that day, so the same rule can be run on history (below). It describes how investors are behaving in this market, not what happens next.

Context (not part of the score)

• Global risk gauge (Market Compass): Risk-on, 1 of 7 warning signals on.
• Breadth: 54% of Brazil's stocks are above their own 200-day average.
• Oil is up 29% in three months. Fuels are a large part of Brazil's exports, so export earnings benefit.
• The central bank has cut its rate by 1.25 points over twelve months. Easing supports borrowing and stock valuations, and can squeeze bank margins.

How the rule would have done on the index, 2000-10-18 to 2026-10-16 (25.6 years)

The position is decided at one day's close and applied to the next day's return, so the rule never uses the future. Time out of the market earns nothing here. Limits: index price only (no dividends, no interest on cash), no trading costs or taxes, one market and one period, and a rule that did well or badly in the past can do the opposite next time. Hypothetical results, not a promise and not advice.

Risk-on setting: the screen looks for the strongest price momentum over the last six months (skipping the latest month) among stocks trading above their 200-day average. Chosen from the 300 most traded stocks in Brazil, using prices up to 16 Oct 2026.

These are candidates to research, not recommendations. The screen reads prices only: it knows nothing about the companies' earnings, debt or valuation, and a stock can fit the setting and still fall. Momentum screens tend to pick volatile stocks, so check the Volatility column. We cannot yet test this screen fairly on the past, because our price history only contains companies that are listed today, which flatters any screen. So instead of showing a backtest we record each day's picks and will judge the rule on what happens after the fact. Educational only, not financial advice.

Share of merchandise exports and imports by product group. ■ exports   ■ imports.

High-technology products are 11.1% of manufactured exports (2024).

What the trade mix suggests to watch

• Fuels are 16.1% of Brazil's merchandise exports (and 11.1% of imports), so energy prices matter for what the country earns abroad.
• Food is 40.7% of merchandise exports: crop and food prices, and the weather behind them, matter for export income.
• Ores and metals are 12.2% of merchandise exports, so metal prices matter for export earnings.
• Exports plus imports equal 35% of GDP, so the economy is mostly driven by domestic demand, with trade a smaller share.
• The current account was a deficit of 2.9% of GDP (2025): the country spends more abroad than it earns and relies on foreign capital to fill the gap.

These describe the structure of trade, using the figures above. They are not forecasts and not investment advice. Latest available year differs by group (usually 2024 or 2025).