China: economy, interest rate and stock market

3.00%   set by People's Bank of China. Last change: −0.10 pt on 20 May 2025. Over 12 months: unchanged. As of 13 Oct 2026.

All countries: central bank interest rates. Rates move stocks through borrowing costs and the currency: rising rates usually weigh on rate-sensitive stocks and help banks, falling rates the opposite.

Risk-off   1 of 5 price checks on Shanghai Composite are positive, as of 16 Oct 2026.

4 or 5 positive = Risk-on, 2 or 3 = Mixed, 0 or 1 = Risk-off. Each check uses only prices up to that day, so the same rule can be run on history (below). It describes how investors are behaving in this market, not what happens next.

Context (not part of the score)

• Global risk gauge (Market Compass): Risk-on, 1 of 7 warning signals on.
• Breadth: 14% of China's stocks are above their own 200-day average.
• Oil is up 29% in three months. China imports far more fuel than it exports, so this raises its import bill and tends to press on its currency and on fuel-heavy industries.
• The policy rate is unchanged over twelve months: no new push from monetary policy either way.

How the rule would have done on the index, 2000-11-06 to 2026-10-16 (25 years)

The position is decided at one day's close and applied to the next day's return, so the rule never uses the future. Time out of the market earns nothing here. Limits: index price only (no dividends, no interest on cash), no trading costs or taxes, one market and one period, and a rule that did well or badly in the past can do the opposite next time. Hypothetical results, not a promise and not advice.

Risk-off setting: the screen looks for the stocks whose prices have swung least over the last year. Chosen from the 300 most traded stocks in China, using prices up to 16 Oct 2026.

These are candidates to research, not recommendations. The screen reads prices only: it knows nothing about the companies' earnings, debt or valuation, and a stock can fit the setting and still fall. Momentum screens tend to pick volatile stocks, so check the Volatility column. We cannot yet test this screen fairly on the past, because our price history only contains companies that are listed today, which flatters any screen. So instead of showing a backtest we record each day's picks and will judge the rule on what happens after the fact. Educational only, not financial advice.

Share of merchandise exports and imports by product group. ■ exports   ■ imports.

High-technology products are 26.3% of manufactured exports (2024).

What the trade mix suggests to watch

• Fuels are 18.1% of China's merchandise imports against 1.4% of its exports. A rise in oil and gas prices raises its import bill and tends to press on its currency and on fuel-heavy industries; a fall does the reverse.
• Manufactured goods are 90.5% of merchandise exports: the economy sells made goods abroad, which ties it to global demand and to its exchange rate.
• High-technology products are 26.3% of manufactured exports (2024), which links trade to the electronics and equipment cycle.
• Exports plus imports equal 38% of GDP, so the economy is mostly driven by domestic demand, with trade a smaller share.
• The current account was a surplus of 3.8% of GDP (2025): the country earns more abroad than it spends.

These describe the structure of trade, using the figures above. They are not forecasts and not investment advice. Latest available year differs by group (usually 2024 or 2025).