Indonesia: economy, interest rate and stock market
The central bank's policy rate is 5.75% (up 1.00 points over 12 months). Inflation was 1.9% in 2025 and GDP grew 5.1% (World Bank). Jakarta Composite is −34.5% over the past year.
Interest rate
5.75% set by Bank Indonesia. Last change: +0.25 pt on 18 Jun 2026. Over 12 months: +1.00 pt. As of 5 Oct 2026.
| Took effect | Rate | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 18 Jun 2026 | 5.75% | +0.25 pt |
| 9 Jun 2026 | 5.50% | +0.25 pt |
| 20 May 2026 | 5.25% | +0.50 pt |
| 17 Sep 2025 | 4.75% | −0.25 pt |
| 20 Aug 2025 | 5.00% | −0.25 pt |
| 16 Jul 2025 | 5.25% | −0.25 pt |
| 21 May 2025 | 5.50% | −0.25 pt |
| 15 Jan 2025 | 5.75% | −0.25 pt |
| 18 Sep 2024 | 6.00% | start of our data |
All countries: central bank interest rates. Rates move stocks through borrowing costs and the currency: rising rates usually weigh on rate-sensitive stocks and help banks, falling rates the opposite.
Stock market: Jakarta Composite
| Level | 1M | 3M | YTD | 1Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5,185.11 | −19.8% | −18.2% | −40.0% | −34.5% |
Closing level on 16 Oct 2026. "vs 200-day avg" is how far the index is above or below its own average of the last 200 closes; "from 52-week high" is the drop from its highest level of the past year. Both are arithmetic on our price history, not a forecast.
Risk-on or risk-off?
Risk-off 0 of 5 price checks on Jakarta Composite are positive, as of 16 Oct 2026.
| Check | Reading today | Positive? |
|---|---|---|
| Index above its 200-day average | -25.3% vs average | No |
| 50-day average above the 200-day average | -8.8% | No |
| 3-month return positive | -18.2% | No |
| Within 10% of the 52-week high | -43.2% from high | No |
| Volatility at or below its own 1-year median | 20-day 43% vs median 20% (annualised) | No |
4 or 5 positive = Risk-on, 2 or 3 = Mixed, 0 or 1 = Risk-off. Each check uses only prices up to that day, so the same rule can be run on history (below). It describes how investors are behaving in this market, not what happens next.
- Global risk gauge (Market Compass): Risk-on, 1 of 7 warning signals on.
- Breadth: 18% of Indonesia's stocks are above their own 200-day average.
- Oil is up 29% in three months. Fuels are a large part of Indonesia's exports, so export earnings benefit.
- The central bank has raised its rate by 1.00 points over twelve months. Tightening usually weighs on rate-sensitive stocks and helps bank margins.
| Strategy | Return a year | Worst fall |
|---|---|---|
| Buy and hold the index | 10.6% | −60.7% |
| Hold only when not Risk-off (2+ checks) | 11.3% | −30.7% |
| Hold only when Risk-on (4+ checks) | 9.3% | −26.9% |
The position is decided at one day's close and applied to the next day's return, so the rule never uses the future. Time out of the market earns nothing here. Limits: index price only (no dividends, no interest on cash), no trading costs or taxes, one market and one period, and a rule that did well or badly in the past can do the opposite next time. Hypothetical results, not a promise and not advice.
Stocks that fit the current setting
Risk-off setting: the screen looks for the stocks whose prices have swung least over the last year. Chosen from the 300 most traded stocks in Indonesia, using prices up to 16 Oct 2026.
| Stock | Price | 3M |
|---|---|---|
| MPMX Mitra Pinasthika Mustika Tbk | IDR 975.00 | −1.5% |
| BJTM Bank Pembangunan Timur Tbk | IDR 488.00 | −7.9% |
| ARNA Arwana Citramulia Tbk | IDR 494.00 | +3.8% |
| BNGA Bank Cimb Niaga Tbk | IDR 1,505.00 | −8.0% |
| SMSM Selamat Sempurna Tbk | IDR 1,520.00 | −11.7% |
| BSSR Baramulti Suksessarana Tbk | IDR 4,940.00 | +24.5% |
| HEXA Hexindo Adiperkasa Tbk | IDR 3,030.00 | −28.8% |
| TSPC Tempo Scan Pacific Tbk | IDR 2,470.00 | −4.3% |
| BJBR Bank Jabar | IDR 715.00 | −9.5% |
| LPPF Matahari Department Store Tb... | IDR 1,525.00 | −4.7% |
These are candidates to research, not recommendations. The screen reads prices only: it knows nothing about the companies' earnings, debt or valuation, and a stock can fit the setting and still fall. Momentum screens tend to pick volatile stocks, so check the Volatility column. We cannot yet test this screen fairly on the past, because our price history only contains companies that are listed today, which flatters any screen. So instead of showing a backtest we record each day's picks and will judge the rule on what happens after the fact. Educational only, not financial advice.
Economy at a glance
| Measure | Latest | Year |
|---|---|---|
| Economy size (GDP) | $1.45 trillion | 2025 |
| GDP per person | $5,060 | 2025 |
| GDP growth | 5.1% | 2025 |
| Inflation (consumer prices) | 1.9% | 2025 |
| Unemployment | 3.2% | 2025 |
| Population | 285.7 million | 2025 |
| Current account balance, % of GDP | -0.1% | 2025 |
| Exports of goods and services, % of GDP | 22.8% | 2025 |
| Imports of goods and services, % of GDP | 20.5% | 2025 |
Source: World Bank World Development Indicators, annual figures. The latest year is usually the previous calendar year, so these numbers are not live and are revised later by the World Bank.
Trade structure
Share of merchandise exports and imports by product group. ■ exports ■ imports.
High-technology products are 8.7% of manufactured exports (2024).
- Fuels are 16.0% of Indonesia's merchandise exports (and 15.2% of imports), so energy prices matter for what the country earns abroad.
- Food is 22.9% of merchandise exports: crop and food prices, and the weather behind them, matter for export income.
- Exports plus imports equal 43% of GDP, so the economy is mostly driven by domestic demand, with trade a smaller share.
- The current account was a deficit of 0.1% of GDP (2025): the country spends more abroad than it earns and relies on foreign capital to fill the gap.
These describe the structure of trade, using the figures above. They are not forecasts and not investment advice. Latest available year differs by group (usually 2024 or 2025).
More on Indonesia
Sources: Bank for International Settlements and central bank decisions (policy rates), World Bank (economy and trade), StocksXray price history (index). Educational only, not financial advice.