Spain: economy, interest rate and stock market
The central bank's policy rate is 2.50% (up 0.50 points over 12 months). Inflation was 2.7% in 2025 and GDP grew 2.8% (World Bank). IBEX 35 is +21.8% over the past year.
Interest rate
2.50% set by European Central Bank , the central bank all euro members share . Last change: +0.25 pt on 16 Sep 2026. Over 12 months: +0.50 pt. As of 13 Oct 2026.
| Took effect | Rate | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 16 Sep 2026 | 2.50% | +0.25 pt |
| 17 Jun 2026 | 2.25% | +0.25 pt |
| 11 Jun 2025 | 2.00% | −0.25 pt |
| 23 Apr 2025 | 2.25% | −0.25 pt |
| 12 Mar 2025 | 2.50% | −0.25 pt |
| 5 Feb 2025 | 2.75% | −0.25 pt |
| 18 Dec 2024 | 3.00% | −0.25 pt |
| 23 Oct 2024 | 3.25% | −0.25 pt |
| 18 Sep 2024 | 3.50% | start of our data |
All countries: central bank interest rates. Rates move stocks through borrowing costs and the currency: rising rates usually weigh on rate-sensitive stocks and help banks, falling rates the opposite.
Stock market: IBEX 35
| Level | 1M | 3M | YTD | 1Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19,326.30 | −2.5% | −0.3% | +11.7% | +21.8% |
Closing level on 16 Oct 2026. "vs 200-day avg" is how far the index is above or below its own average of the last 200 closes; "from 52-week high" is the drop from its highest level of the past year. Both are arithmetic on our price history, not a forecast.
Risk-on or risk-off?
Risk-on 4 of 5 price checks on IBEX 35 are positive, as of 16 Oct 2026.
| Check | Reading today | Positive? |
|---|---|---|
| Index above its 200-day average | +3.8% vs average | Yes |
| 50-day average above the 200-day average | +5.8% | Yes |
| 3-month return positive | -0.3% | No |
| Within 10% of the 52-week high | -4.4% from high | Yes |
| Volatility at or below its own 1-year median | 20-day 15% vs median 15% (annualised) | Yes |
4 or 5 positive = Risk-on, 2 or 3 = Mixed, 0 or 1 = Risk-off. Each check uses only prices up to that day, so the same rule can be run on history (below). It describes how investors are behaving in this market, not what happens next.
- Global risk gauge (Market Compass): Risk-on, 1 of 7 warning signals on.
- Breadth: 40% of Spain's stocks are above their own 200-day average.
- Oil is up 29% in three months, but fuel is a small net item in Spain's trade, so the direct effect is limited.
- The central bank has raised its rate by 0.50 points over twelve months. Tightening usually weighs on rate-sensitive stocks and helps bank margins.
| Strategy | Return a year | Worst fall |
|---|---|---|
| Buy and hold the index | 2.3% | −62.6% |
| Hold only when not Risk-off (2+ checks) | 2.0% | −49.1% |
| Hold only when Risk-on (4+ checks) | 2.3% | −43.8% |
The position is decided at one day's close and applied to the next day's return, so the rule never uses the future. Time out of the market earns nothing here. Limits: index price only (no dividends, no interest on cash), no trading costs or taxes, one market and one period, and a rule that did well or badly in the past can do the opposite next time. Hypothetical results, not a promise and not advice.
Stocks that fit the current setting
Risk-on setting: the screen looks for the strongest price momentum over the last six months (skipping the latest month) among stocks trading above their 200-day average. Chosen from the 221 most traded stocks in Spain, using prices up to 16 Oct 2026.
| Stock | Price | 3M |
|---|---|---|
| CLR CLERHP Estructuras S.A | EUR 20.40 | +4.6% |
| SPH Profithol S.A. | EUR 0.50 | +0.0% |
| OLE Deoleo S.A | EUR 0.35 | +8.6% |
| GRI Griñó Ecologic S.A | EUR 1.51 | −1.9% |
| RBT Robot S.A. | EUR 6.25 | +37.1% |
| MDF Duro Felguera | EUR 0.23 | +14.1% |
| MTS ArcelorMittal SA | EUR 56.76 | −1.7% |
| CIRSA Cirsa Enterprises SAU | EUR 17.58 | +32.8% |
| UNI Unicaja Banco SA | EUR 3.26 | +0.7% |
| ACX Acerinox | EUR 16.92 | +2.5% |
These are candidates to research, not recommendations. The screen reads prices only: it knows nothing about the companies' earnings, debt or valuation, and a stock can fit the setting and still fall. Momentum screens tend to pick volatile stocks, so check the Volatility column. We cannot yet test this screen fairly on the past, because our price history only contains companies that are listed today, which flatters any screen. So instead of showing a backtest we record each day's picks and will judge the rule on what happens after the fact. Educational only, not financial advice.
Economy at a glance
| Measure | Latest | Year |
|---|---|---|
| Economy size (GDP) | $1.91 trillion | 2025 |
| GDP per person | $38,627 | 2025 |
| GDP growth | 2.8% | 2025 |
| Inflation (consumer prices) | 2.7% | 2025 |
| Unemployment | 10.4% | 2025 |
| Population | 49.4 million | 2025 |
| Current account balance, % of GDP | 2.9% | 2025 |
| Central government debt, % of GDP | 105.6% | 2024 |
| Exports of goods and services, % of GDP | 36.6% | 2025 |
| Imports of goods and services, % of GDP | 32.8% | 2025 |
Source: World Bank World Development Indicators, annual figures. The latest year is usually the previous calendar year, so these numbers are not live and are revised later by the World Bank. The Euro area page shows the combined figures; this page shows Spain alone.
Trade structure
Share of merchandise exports and imports by product group. ■ exports ■ imports.
High-technology products are 9.3% of manufactured exports (2024).
- Fuels are 5.0% of merchandise exports and 11.8% of imports, so energy prices are not the main swing factor in its trade.
- Manufactured goods are 66.0% of merchandise exports: the economy sells made goods abroad, which ties it to global demand and to its exchange rate.
- Exports plus imports equal 69% of GDP, so the economy is moderately open to trade.
- The current account was a surplus of 2.9% of GDP (2025): the country earns more abroad than it spends.
These describe the structure of trade, using the figures above. They are not forecasts and not investment advice. Latest available year differs by group (usually 2024 or 2025).
More on Spain
Sources: Bank for International Settlements and central bank decisions (policy rates), World Bank (economy and trade), StocksXray price history (index). Educational only, not financial advice.