Taiwan: economy, interest rate and stock market
The central bank's policy rate is 2.00%. Taiwan Weighted (TAIEX) is +78.6% over the past year. The World Bank does not publish economy figures for Taiwan, so this page shows the interest rate and the stock market only.
Interest rate
2.00% set by Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan). As of 19 Oct 2026 (checked by hand against the bank's decisions).
Discount rate. Unchanged at 2.00% since March 2024, including the September 2026 meeting.
All countries: central bank interest rates. Rates move stocks through borrowing costs and the currency: rising rates usually weigh on rate-sensitive stocks and help banks, falling rates the opposite.
Stock market: Taiwan Weighted (TAIEX)
| Level | 1M | 3M | YTD | 1Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 47,111.26 | +3.5% | +10.4% | +62.7% | +78.6% |
Closing level on 16 Oct 2026. "vs 200-day avg" is how far the index is above or below its own average of the last 200 closes; "from 52-week high" is the drop from its highest level of the past year. Both are arithmetic on our price history, not a forecast.
Risk-on or risk-off?
Risk-on 5 of 5 price checks on Taiwan Weighted (TAIEX) are positive, as of 16 Oct 2026.
| Check | Reading today | Positive? |
|---|---|---|
| Index above its 200-day average | +17.3% vs average | Yes |
| 50-day average above the 200-day average | +16.4% | Yes |
| 3-month return positive | +10.4% | Yes |
| Within 10% of the 52-week high | -5.4% from high | Yes |
| Volatility at or below its own 1-year median | 20-day 20% vs median 24% (annualised) | Yes |
4 or 5 positive = Risk-on, 2 or 3 = Mixed, 0 or 1 = Risk-off. Each check uses only prices up to that day, so the same rule can be run on history (below). It describes how investors are behaving in this market, not what happens next.
- Global risk gauge (Market Compass): Risk-on, 1 of 7 warning signals on.
- Breadth: 46% of Taiwan's stocks are above their own 200-day average.
| Strategy | Return a year | Worst fall |
|---|---|---|
| Buy and hold the index | 8.3% | −58.3% |
| Hold only when not Risk-off (2+ checks) | 8.8% | −31.1% |
| Hold only when Risk-on (4+ checks) | 4.4% | −31.7% |
The position is decided at one day's close and applied to the next day's return, so the rule never uses the future. Time out of the market earns nothing here. Limits: index price only (no dividends, no interest on cash), no trading costs or taxes, one market and one period, and a rule that did well or badly in the past can do the opposite next time. Hypothetical results, not a promise and not advice.
Stocks that fit the current setting
Risk-on setting: the screen looks for the strongest price momentum over the last six months (skipping the latest month) among stocks trading above their 200-day average. Chosen from the 300 most traded stocks in Taiwan, using prices up to 16 Oct 2026.
| Stock | Price | 3M |
|---|---|---|
| 3026 Holy Stone Enterprise Co Ltd | TWD 806.00 | +16.8% |
| 7610 Lianyou Metals Co., Ltd. | TWD 1,430.00 | −40.7% |
| 6538 Brave C&H Supply Co Ltd | TWD 285.00 | +108.0% |
| 3441 Unique Optical Industrial Co... | TWD 237.50 | +249.3% |
| 6696 Lin BioScience Inc. | TWD 166.00 | +138.2% |
| 6173 Prosperity Dielectrics Co Lt... | TWD 302.13 | +46.7% |
| 2059 King Slide Works Co Ltd | TWD 9,955.00 | +26.6% |
| 6213 ITEQ Corp | TWD 774.00 | +142.6% |
| 6182 Wafer Works | TWD 110.50 | −26.1% |
| 6147 Chipbond Technology | TWD 207.50 | +16.2% |
These are candidates to research, not recommendations. The screen reads prices only: it knows nothing about the companies' earnings, debt or valuation, and a stock can fit the setting and still fall. Momentum screens tend to pick volatile stocks, so check the Volatility column. We cannot yet test this screen fairly on the past, because our price history only contains companies that are listed today, which flatters any screen. So instead of showing a backtest we record each day's picks and will judge the rule on what happens after the fact. Educational only, not financial advice.
More on Taiwan
Sources: Bank for International Settlements and central bank decisions (policy rates), World Bank (economy and trade), StocksXray price history (index). Educational only, not financial advice.