Is Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL) undervalued or overvalued?

Our model estimates a fair value of about $130 against a price of $101.27 (Fair, +29% to fair value). It blends a 10-year DCF, sector multiples and earnings-power value and is a model estimate, not advice.

What is the X-Ray Score for ACGL?

Arch Capital Group Ltd. has an X-Ray Score of 67 out of 100, built from valuation, growth, profitability, financial health and dividend lenses ranked against Financials peers.

Where does the data for ACGL come from?

Financial statements come from SEC EDGAR filings, prices from exchange price feeds, and industry betas and equity risk premium from Damodaran Online (NYU Stern).

Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL)

Financials · Property & Casualty Insurance · US stock · S&P 500 component

$101.27 ▲ +1.96 (1.97%)

At close 16 Oct 2026 · USD · Volume 4,334,800

Compare with HIG Historical data Research report SEC filings

Fair valueFair

$130 +28.7% to fair value

$65fair band $78–$182$195

Day's range

$99.59 – $101.58

52-week range

$82.45 – $107.09

About Arch Capital Group Ltd.

Arch Capital Group is a Bermuda-based insurance, reinsurance and mortgage insurance company. It writes property and casualty coverage, specialty lines and reinsurance for other insurers, and provides mortgage insurance in the United States and elsewhere. It earns money from premiums and from investing the funds it holds before claims are paid, so results depend on underwriting discipline and catastrophe losses.

Arch Capital Group Ltd. generated $19.2 billion in revenue during the last twelve months. The three-year revenue growth rate is 27.5% a year. No dividend is paid to shareholders. The X-Ray Score is 68 out of 100. Operating margin shows how much of each dollar of revenue remains after operating costs.

Written with AI from public information and the filing figures on this page, then checked automatically for unsupported numbers. It can contain mistakes: read the company's own filings below before relying on it.

Price chart

Historical data & CSV

52-wk range $82.45 – $107.09Volume 4,334,800Daily, split-adjusted

Vitals

Market cap$35.3B

52-week range$82.45 – $107.09

Volume (last day)4,334,800

P/E (TTM)7.9

EBIT / EV yield–

Free-cash-flow yield17.1%

Dividend yieldNo dividend

Revenue (TTM)$19.2B

Net income (TTM)$4.7B

Operating margin–

Return on capital–

Debt incl. leases$4.3B

Cash & securities$1.1B

Debt = borrowings plus lease liabilities. Cash & securities = cash, equivalents and short-term marketable securities (long-term securities are not counted, so net cash can be understated for companies like Apple). Net debt = debt minus cash & securities. Source: latest SEC 10-Q/10-K. EBIT / EV yield = operating profit divided by market cap plus net debt.

Fair value estimate

$130

Fair +28.7% to fair value

Equal blend of three models: peer multiples, a fundamentals-adjusted multiple (growth, ROIC and margin) and a 10-year DCF scaled to the market's average. Earnings-power value (no growth) is a floor and not part of the blend. Model uncertainty is High, so the safety margin is 40%.

Price $101

Undervalued < $78Fair $78 – $182Overvalued > $182

Excess-return (bank)

$101

A model estimate, not a price target or recommendation. Inputs: risk-free 5.09%, equity risk premium 4.23% (Damodaran). How it works.

What this means

Average business, fairly priced

The price sits inside our fair-value band. A high score does not guarantee a good outcome; it shifts the odds a little. Use the checklist as a prompt for your own research.

Before you invest · decision checklist

I understand how this company makes money Business quality is average or better ✓ 59 The price is not above fair value $130 fair value Debt looks manageable Revenue has been growing 27.5% a year Profits are backed by cash There are no red flags none raised I know what share of my savings this would be

Ticked boxes are filled in from our data; the rest are yours to answer.

The five-lens scan

Every score explained in one sentence, ranked against Financials peers. Open a lens to see the numbers behind it.

Valuation Strong

78/100

Cheap against its sector on earnings and cash flow.

See the numbers →

Free-cash-flow yield17.1%

Fair value vs price1.3×

Growth Strong

72/100

Growing faster than most of its sector.

See the numbers →

Revenue growth (3y)27.5%

EPS growth (3y)45.1%

Growth consistency80%

Profitability Fair

63/100

Returns on capital are typical for its sector.

See the numbers →

Financial health Fair

55/100

Balance sheet is in typical shape for its sector.

See the numbers →

Piotroski F-Score7 / 9

Dividends None

–/100

Pays no dividend.

See the numbers →

Quarterly results: last 6 quarters

+18.6%

Mar '25

+23.3%

Jun '25

+8.2%

Sep '25

+8.5%

Dec '25

-3.3%

Mar '26

-10.5%

Jun '26

Revenue against the same quarter a year earlier. Latest quarter revenue $4.7B, diluted EPS $3.00.

Compare with peers

HIG Hartford Insurance Gro...66 PGR Progressive Corp65 CINF Cincinnati Financial C...64 ALL Allstate Corp55

Other Property & Casualty Insurance companies by X-Ray Score.

Fundamentals checklist

● 4 Good · ● 3 Average · ● 1 Bad

Cash quality

Earnings backed by cashAverage

Free-cash-flow yieldGood

Risk models

Piotroski F-ScoreAverage

Growth

EPS growth (3y)Good

Free-cash-flow growth (3y)Average

Revenue growth (3y)Good

Growth consistencyBad

Balance sheet

Valuation

Fair value vs priceGood

Profitability

Each check is graded against the company's sector, not a fixed number. Checklist score 75/100.

Financials

	FY21	FY22	FY23	FY24	FY25
Revenue	$9.2B	$9.6B	$13.6B	$17.4B	$19.9B
Operating income	$2.5B	$1.7B	$3.7B	$4.8B	$5.3B
Net income	$2.2B	$1.5B	$4.4B	$4.3B	$4.4B
Operating cash flow	$3.4B	$3.8B	$5.7B	$6.7B	$6.2B
Operating margin	27.1%	17.6%	27.2%	27.6%	26.6%
Free cash flow	$3.4B	$3.8B	$5.7B	$6.6B	$6.1B
Diluted EPS	$5.23	$3.80	$11.62	$11.19	$11.60

Fiscal years, from SEC filings.

Technical summary

Daily

Strongly bullish

12 bullish · 1 neutral · 3 bearish

Weekly

Strongly bullish

10 bullish · 1 neutral · 1 bearish

Monthly

Strongly bullish

7 bullish · 1 neutral · 0 bearish

Moving averages (daily)

SMA 10	96.73	Bullish
EMA 10	97.45	Bullish
SMA 20	95.66	Bullish
EMA 20	96.69	Bullish
SMA 50	97.17	Bullish
EMA 50	96.95	Bullish
SMA 100	96.98	Bullish
EMA 100	96.93	Bullish
SMA 200	96.39	Bullish
EMA 200	96.10	Bullish

Oscillators (daily)

RSI (14)	68.03	Neutral
MACD (12, 26)	0.50	Bullish
Momentum (12)	9.65	Bullish
Stochastic %K (14)	96.67	Bearish
Williams %R (14)	-3.33	Bearish
CCI (20)	245.3	Bearish

Pivot points (classic, last session)

98.06

98.82

100.0

Pivot

100.8

102.0

102.8

104.0

Signals describe what the chart is doing, not what to do. Moving averages: price above the average is bullish. Oscillators use the usual thresholds (RSI 30/70, Stochastic 20/80, CCI ±100, Williams %R −80/−20; MACD and momentum above zero are bullish). Weekly and monthly views use closing prices only.