Consumer Staples · Agricultural Products & Services · US stock · price as of 16 Oct 2026
Key indicators
Price
$82.61
52-week range
$54.00 – $88.75
Market cap
$40.1B
P/E (trailing)
22.6×
EV / EBITDA
12.1×
Free-cash-flow yield
4.2%
Dividend yield
2.5%
Revenue (last 12 months)
$82.1B
Revenue growth (3y a year)
−7.5%
Operating margin
3.3%
Return on invested capital
7.5%
Net debt / EBITDA
1.8×
Fair value
Blended fair value$94.58 range $91 – $98
Versus priceFair+15% to fair value
Peer multiples
$87.80
Fundamentals-adjusted multiple
$111.33
10-year DCF (market-scaled)
$84.62
Earnings power value (floor, not blended)
$55.13
Model uncertainty
Medium
X-Ray Score
38/ 100 · High confidence · ahead of 21% of sector peers
Valuation49
Growth22
Profitability32
Financial health43
Dividends46
Five-year price chart navy: price · brown: 200-day average · blue band: fair value range
Executive summary
Archer-Daniels-Midland processes crops into food ingredients, animal feed, and industrial and energy products. It crushes oilseeds such as soybeans, mills and processes corn, makes sweeteners, starches and ethanol, and supplies nutrition ingredients for people and animals. It also stores, transports and trades grain through a global network. The business is organised around agricultural services and oilseeds, carbohydrate solutions and nutrition.
ADM earns money from processing margins, from trading and merchandising crops, and from its ingredient businesses. Revenue is $82.1 billion over the last twelve months, but revenue growth over three years is -7.5% a year. The operating margin is 3.3%, and the business earns a profit of 7% on the capital invested in it. It carries net debt of 1.8 times EBITDA, and the dividend yield is 2.5%.
StocksXray gives Archer-Daniels-Midland Co an X-Ray Score of 38 out of 100 (high confidence), ahead of 21% of the S&P 500 stocks in its sector. Its strongest lens is valuation (49) and its weakest is growth (22).
Our fair value blend is $94.58 (range $90.57 to $98.25). At $82.61 the stock trades 13% below that blend, so the label is "Fair" with medium model uncertainty. Fair value is a range, not a price target.
XStocksXray
Archer-Daniels-Midland Co (ADM)
Valuation history multiples at each fiscal year-end price; the last column uses today's price and the last twelve months
FY2021
FY2022
FY2023
FY2024
FY2025
Now
Price
$59.01
$82.60
$65.73
$47.64
$56.33
$82.61
Market cap
$33.4B
$46.5B
$35.6B
$23.5B
$27.3B
$40.1B
P/E
12.3×
10.7×
10.2×
13.1×
25.3×
22.6×
EV / revenue
0.5×
0.5×
0.5×
0.4×
0.4×
0.6×
EV / EBITDA
9.2×
8.2×
7.1×
8.1×
11.4×
12.1×
Price / free cash flow
6.2×
21.5×
12.0×
19.1×
6.5×
23.9×
Free-cash-flow yield
16.2%
4.6%
8.3%
5.2%
15.4%
4.2%
Price / book
1.5×
1.9×
1.5×
1.1×
1.2×
1.7×
Dividend yield
2.51%
1.94%
2.74%
4.20%
3.62%
2.51%
Fundamentals checklist ● 2 Good · ● 6 Average · ● 8 Bad · each check graded against the sector
Cash quality
Earnings backed by cash−1.9%Bad
Free-cash-flow yield4.2%Average
Risk models
Altman Z score3.5×Average
Piotroski F-Score5 of 9Bad
Growth
EPS growth (3y)−33.9%Bad
Free-cash-flow growth (3y)24.9%Good
Revenue growth (3y)−7.5%Bad
Growth consistency30%Bad
Balance sheet
Current ratio1.4×Good
Net debt / EBITDA1.8×Average
Interest cover4.5×Bad
Valuation
Fair value vs price1.1×Average
EBIT / EV yield5.7%Average
Profitability
Return on invested capital7.5%Average
Operating margin3.3%Bad
Gross profitability10.5%Bad
XStocksXray
Archer-Daniels-Midland Co (ADM)
Financials US$ millions, from SEC filings; last column is the last twelve months
Income statement
FY21
FY22
FY23
FY24
FY25
LTM
Revenue
85,249
101,556
93,935
85,530
80,269
82,099
Gross profit
5,987
7,570
7,513
5,778
5,033
5,640
Operating income
3,578
5,629
4,941
2,961
1,867
2,687
Net income
2,709
4,340
3,483
1,800
1,078
1,770
Diluted EPS ($)
4.79
7.71
6.43
3.65
2.23
3.66
Free cash flow
5,426
2,159
2,966
1,227
4,204
1,677
Gross margin
7.0%
7.5%
8.0%
6.8%
6.3%
6.9%
Operating margin
4.2%
5.5%
5.3%
3.5%
2.3%
3.3%
Net margin
3.2%
4.3%
3.7%
2.1%
1.3%
2.2%
Balance sheet
FY21
FY22
FY23
FY24
FY25
LTM
Total assets
56,136
59,774
54,631
53,271
52,389
53,527
Cash
943
1,037
1,368
611
1,015
1,060
Total debt
9,539
9,180
8,365
10,157
8,410
8,011
Equity
22,508
24,317
24,145
22,178
22,740
23,580
Dividend per share ($)
1.48
1.60
1.80
2.00
2.04
2.06
Revenue and net income US$ billions: navy revenue, teal net income
Every number comes from SEC filings, end-of-day prices and the StocksXray models described on the methodology page. The X-Ray Score ranks each metric against the company's own sector. Fair value blends three models and carries a typical error of about 40%, so treat it as a range. Analyst ratings, price targets and earnings-call summaries are not part of this report. Educational research, not financial advice; read the disclaimer.