CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF)
Materials · Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals · US stock · S&P 500 component
$120.85
▲ +1.08 (0.90%)
Fair valueData under review
$352
$176fair band $246–$457$528
Day's range
$118.80 – $121.50
52-week range
$74.33 – $141.66
About CF Industries Holdings, Inc.
CF Industries manufactures and sells nitrogen fertilizer products, including ammonia, urea and ammonium nitrate, along with other nitrogen products for industrial uses. Its plants in North America and Europe use natural gas as the main raw material. Revenue comes from selling to farmers, distributors and industrial customers, so results depend on crop demand, nitrogen prices and the cost of natural gas.
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. generated $7.7 billion in revenue during the last twelve months. Over three years, revenue changed by -14.1% a year, a decline measured per year. Operating margin stands at 41.1%, showing profit left after running costs. Return on invested capital stands at 40%. Net debt is 0.2 times of EBITDA. A dividend is paid, with a yield of 1.7%. The X-Ray Score is 70 out of 100.
Written with AI from public information and the filing figures on this page, then checked automatically for unsupported numbers. It can contain mistakes: read the company's own filings below before relying on it.
Price chart
52-wk range $74.33 – $141.66Volume 1,725,200Daily, split-adjusted
Vitals
Market cap$18.6B
52-week range$74.33 – $141.66
Volume (last day)1,725,200
P/E (TTM)7.6
EBIT / EV yield14.1%
Free-cash-flow yield10.3%
Dividend yield1.7%
Revenue (TTM)$7.7B
Net income (TTM)$2.5B
Operating margin41.1%
Return on capital39.5%
Debt incl. leases$3.2B
Cash & securities$2.5B
Debt = borrowings plus lease liabilities. Cash & securities = cash, equivalents and short-term marketable securities (long-term securities are not counted, so net cash can be understated for companies like Apple). Net debt = debt minus cash & securities. Source: latest SEC 10-Q/10-K. EBIT / EV yield = operating profit divided by market cap plus net debt.
Fair value estimate
$352model spread $245 – $354
Data under review
+0.0% to fair value
Equal blend of three models: peer multiples, a fundamentals-adjusted multiple (growth, ROIC and margin) and a 10-year DCF scaled to the market's average. Earnings-power value (no growth) is a floor and not part of the blend. Model uncertainty is Medium, so the safety margin is 30%.
Multiples use through-the-cycle earnings (0.72x of the last twelve months)
Price $121
Undervalued < $246Fair $246 – $457Overvalued > $457
10-year DCF (market-scaled)
$566
Peer multiples
$251
Earnings power floor (not blended)
$154
Fundamentals-adjusted multiple
$238
Growth the price implies
-7.5%/yr
A model estimate, not a price target or recommendation. Inputs: risk-free 5.09%, equity risk premium 4.23% (Damodaran). How it works.
What this means
Read the lenses below
The price sits inside our fair-value band. A high score does not guarantee a good outcome; it shifts the odds a little. Use the checklist as a prompt for your own research.
Before you invest · decision checklist
Ticked boxes are filled in from our data; the rest are yours to answer.
The five-lens scan
Every score explained in one sentence, ranked against Materials peers. Open a lens to see the numbers behind it.
Valuation
Strong
96/100
Cheap against its sector on earnings and cash flow.
See the numbers →
EBIT / EV yield14.1%
Free-cash-flow yield10.3%
Fair value vs price2.9×
Growth
Weak
37/100
Growing slower than most of its sector.
See the numbers →
Revenue growth (3y)-14.1%
EPS growth (3y)-18.2%
Growth consistency70%
Profitability
Fair
69/100
Returns on capital are typical for its sector.
See the numbers →
Return on invested capital39.5%
Operating margin41.1%
Gross profitability21.8%
Financial health
Strong
83/100
Balance sheet looks strong: debt is well covered.
See the numbers →
Piotroski F-Score8 / 9
Net debt / EBITDA0.2×
Interest cover18.6×
Dividends
Weak
45/100
Dividend is modest or less certain than peers.
See the numbers →
Dividend yield1.7%
Dividends vs free cash flow17%
Dividend growth2.1%
Quarterly results: last 6 quarters
+13.1%
Mar '25
+20.2%
Jun '25
+21.1%
Sep '25
+22.8%
Dec '25
+19.4%
Mar '26
+17.6%
Jun '26
Revenue against the same quarter a year earlier. Latest quarter revenue $2.2B, diluted EPS $4.73.
Compare with peers
MOS Mosaic Co32Other Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals companies by X-Ray Score.
Fundamentals checklist
● 11 Good · ● 2 Average · ● 3 BadCash quality
Earnings backed by cashAverage
Free-cash-flow yieldGood
Risk models
Altman Z''Good
Piotroski F-ScoreGood
Growth
EPS growth (3y)Bad
Free-cash-flow growth (3y)Bad
Revenue growth (3y)Bad
Growth consistencyAverage
Balance sheet
Current ratioGood
Net debt / EBITDAGood
Interest coverGood
Valuation
Fair value vs priceGood
EBIT / EV yieldGood
Profitability
Return on invested capitalGood
Operating marginGood
Gross profitabilityGood
Each check is graded against the company's sector, not a fixed number. Checklist score 71/100.
Financials
| FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $6.5B | $11.2B | $6.6B | $5.9B | $7.1B |
| Operating income | $1.7B | $5.4B | $2.2B | $1.7B | $2.3B |
| Net income | $1.3B | $3.9B | $1.8B | $1.5B | $1.8B |
| Operating cash flow | $2.9B | $3.9B | $2.8B | $2.3B | $2.8B |
| Operating margin | 26.4% | 48.2% | 33.6% | 29.4% | 32.5% |
| Free cash flow | $2.4B | $3.4B | $2.3B | $1.8B | $1.8B |
| Diluted EPS | $4.24 | $16.38 | $7.87 | $6.74 | $8.97 |
Fiscal years, from SEC filings.
Technical summary
Daily
Bullish
10 bullish · 2 neutral · 4 bearish
Weekly
Strongly bullish
9 bullish · 1 neutral · 2 bearish
Monthly
Strongly bullish
7 bullish · 1 neutral · 0 bearish
Moving averages (daily)
| SMA 10 | 116.4 | Bullish |
| EMA 10 | 117.7 | Bullish |
| SMA 20 | 116.9 | Bullish |
| EMA 20 | 118.8 | Bullish |
| SMA 50 | 123.3 | Bearish |
| EMA 50 | 120.8 | Bullish |
| SMA 100 | 118.6 | Bullish |
| EMA 100 | 119.3 | Bullish |
| SMA 200 | 113.7 | Bullish |
| EMA 200 | 113.1 | Bullish |
Oscillators (daily)
| RSI (14) | 52.53 | Neutral |
| MACD (12, 26) | -1.83 | Bearish |
| Momentum (12) | 4.90 | Bullish |
| Stochastic %K (14) | 89.98 | Bearish |
| Williams %R (14) | -10.02 | Bearish |
| CCI (20) | 86.13 | Neutral |
Pivot points (classic, last session)
S3 116.6 | S2 117.7 | S1 119.3 | Pivot 120.4 | R1 122.0 | R2 123.1 | R3 124.7 |
Signals describe what the chart is doing, not what to do. Moving averages: price above the average is bullish. Oscillators use the usual thresholds (RSI 30/70, Stochastic 20/80, CCI ±100, Williams %R −80/−20; MACD and momentum above zero are bullish). Weekly and monthly views use closing prices only.
Dividends
Paid, last 12 months
2.10 USD
Yield on today's price
1.74%
Frequency
Quarterly
Next ex-dividend date
16 Nov 2026
| Ex-dividend date | Amount per share |
|---|---|
| 16 Nov 2026 (upcoming) | 0.6000 |
| 14 Aug 2026 | 0.6000 |
| 15 May 2026 | 0.5000 |
| 13 Feb 2026 | 0.5000 |
| 14 Nov 2025 | 0.5000 |
| 15 Aug 2025 | 0.5000 |
| 15 May 2025 | 0.5000 |
| 14 Feb 2025 | 0.5000 |
| 15 Nov 2024 | 0.5000 |
| 15 Aug 2024 | 0.5000 |
| 14 May 2024 | 0.5000 |
| 14 Feb 2024 | 0.5000 |
Ex-dividend dates and amounts from EODHD. Shown as declared, before tax.
CF SEC filings
3 Sep 2026
8-KSEC EDGAR
Director or officer change
6 Aug 2026
10-QSEC EDGAR
Quarterly report
5 Aug 2026
8-KSEC EDGAR
Results of operations
5 Aug 2026
8-KSEC EDGAR
Results of operations
7 May 2026
10-QSEC EDGAR
Quarterly report
6 May 2026
8-KSEC EDGAR
Results of operations
6 May 2026
8-KSEC EDGAR
Results of operations
5 May 2026
8-KSEC EDGAR
Director or officer change; Regulation FD disclosure
Where the numbers come from
Statements SEC EDGAR filings (10-K, 10-Q), quarters derived from year-to-date figures.
Prices end-of-day closes, split-adjusted.
Industry inputs beta, multiples and equity risk premium from Damodaran Online (NYU Stern).
StocksXray is for education only and is not financial advice. Scores and fair values are model estimates from public filings and carry uncertainty.