Materials · Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals · US stock · price as of 16 Oct 2026
Key indicators
Price
$120.85
52-week range
$74.33 – $141.66
Market cap
$18.6B
P/E (trailing)
7.6×
EV / EBITDA
4.8×
Free-cash-flow yield
10.3%
Dividend yield
1.7%
Revenue (last 12 months)
$7.7B
Revenue growth (3y a year)
−14.1%
Operating margin
41.1%
Return on invested capital
39.5%
Net debt / EBITDA
0.2×
Fair value
Blended fair value$351.74 range $245 – $354
Versus priceData under review+0% to fair value
Peer multiples
$251.01
Fundamentals-adjusted multiple
$238.16
10-year DCF (market-scaled)
$566.05
Earnings power value (floor, not blended)
$153.97
Model uncertainty
Medium
X-Ray Score
70/ 100 · High confidence · ahead of 91% of sector peers
Valuation96
Growth37
Profitability69
Financial health83
Dividends45
Five-year price chart navy: price · brown: 200-day average · blue band: fair value range
Executive summary
CF Industries manufactures and sells nitrogen fertilizer products, including ammonia, urea and ammonium nitrate, along with other nitrogen products for industrial uses. Its plants in North America and Europe use natural gas as the main raw material. Revenue comes from selling to farmers, distributors and industrial customers, so results depend on crop demand, nitrogen prices and the cost of natural gas.
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. generated $7.7 billion in revenue during the last twelve months. Over three years, revenue changed by -14.1% a year, a decline measured per year. Operating margin stands at 41.1%, showing profit left after running costs. Return on invested capital stands at 40%. Net debt is 0.2 times of EBITDA. A dividend is paid, with a yield of 1.7%.
StocksXray gives CF Industries Holdings, Inc. an X-Ray Score of 70 out of 100 (high confidence), ahead of 91% of the S&P 500 stocks in its sector. Its strongest lens is valuation (96) and its weakest is growth (37).
Our fair value blend is $351.74 (range $244.58 to $354.37). At $120.85 the stock trades 66% below that blend, so the label is "Data under review" with medium model uncertainty. Fair value is a range, not a price target.
XStocksXray
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF)
Valuation history multiples at each fiscal year-end price; the last column uses today's price and the last twelve months
FY2021
FY2022
FY2023
FY2024
FY2025
Now
Price
$64.05
$78.31
$74.59
$82.11
$76.22
$120.85
Market cap
$13.8B
$16.0B
$14.5B
$14.8B
$12.4B
$18.6B
P/E
15.1×
4.8×
9.5×
12.2×
8.5×
7.6×
EV / revenue
2.8×
1.7×
2.7×
3.2×
2.3×
2.9×
EV / EBITDA
7.1×
3.1×
5.8×
7.0×
5.2×
5.5×
Price / free cash flow
5.9×
4.7×
6.4×
8.5×
6.9×
9.7×
Free-cash-flow yield
17.0%
21.3%
15.6%
11.8%
14.6%
10.3%
Price / book
4.3×
3.2×
2.5×
3.0×
2.6×
3.2×
Dividend yield
1.87%
1.92%
2.15%
2.44%
2.62%
1.74%
Fundamentals checklist ● 11 Good · ● 2 Average · ● 3 Bad · each check graded against the sector
Cash quality
Earnings backed by cash−3.2%Average
Free-cash-flow yield10.3%Good
Risk models
Altman Z score4.4×Good
Piotroski F-Score8 of 9Good
Growth
EPS growth (3y)−18.2%Bad
Free-cash-flow growth (3y)−19.1%Bad
Revenue growth (3y)−14.1%Bad
Growth consistency70%Average
Balance sheet
Current ratio4.9×Good
Net debt / EBITDA0.2×Good
Interest cover18.6×Good
Valuation
Fair value vs price2.9×Good
EBIT / EV yield14.1%Good
Profitability
Return on invested capital39.5%Good
Operating margin41.1%Good
Gross profitability21.8%Good
XStocksXray
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF)
Financials US$ millions, from SEC filings; last column is the last twelve months
Income statement
FY21
FY22
FY23
FY24
FY25
LTM
Revenue
6,538
11,186
6,631
5,936
7,084
7,739
Gross profit
2,387
5,861
2,545
2,056
2,724
3,288
Operating income
1,729
5,397
2,230
1,746
2,300
3,181
Net income
1,260
3,937
1,838
1,477
1,798
2,500
Diluted EPS ($)
4.24
16.38
7.87
6.74
8.97
15.83
Free cash flow
2,359
3,402
2,258
1,753
1,802
1,910
Gross margin
36.5%
52.4%
38.4%
34.6%
38.5%
42.5%
Operating margin
26.4%
48.2%
33.6%
29.4%
32.5%
41.1%
Net margin
19.3%
35.2%
27.7%
24.9%
25.4%
32.3%
Balance sheet
FY21
FY22
FY23
FY24
FY25
LTM
Total assets
12,375
13,313
14,376
13,466
14,088
15,099
Cash
1,628
2,323
2,032
1,614
1,982
2,480
Total debt
3,465
2,965
2,968
2,971
3,215
3,216
Equity
3,206
5,051
5,717
4,985
4,838
5,748
Dividend per share ($)
1.20
1.50
1.60
2.00
2.00
2.00
Revenue and net income US$ billions: navy revenue, teal net income
Every number comes from SEC filings, end-of-day prices and the StocksXray models described on the methodology page. The X-Ray Score ranks each metric against the company's own sector. Fair value blends three models and carries a typical error of about 40%, so treat it as a range. Analyst ratings, price targets and earnings-call summaries are not part of this report. Educational research, not financial advice; read the disclaimer.