Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC)
Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · US stock · S&P 500 component
$478.07
▲ +1.15 (0.24%)
Fair valueOvervalued
$323 −32.5% to fair value
$161fair band $194–$452$484
Day's range
$470.56 – $484.25
52-week range
$160.07 – $485.22
About Marathon Petroleum Corp
Crude oil goes in and gasoline, diesel, jet fuel and other products come out at the refineries of Marathon Petroleum, which markets them to wholesale and retail customers. It operates a network of refineries across the United States and a midstream business that carries crude, refined products and natural gas liquids through pipelines, terminals and processing plants, largely held through the MPLX partnership. Customers include fuel distributors, branded stations, airlines, industrial users and petrochemical firms.
Revenue comes from refined product sales at prevailing market prices, alongside fees from the midstream operations. It was $153.6 billion over the last twelve months, but growth was -9.2% a year over the last three years, which means sales have contracted. The operating margin is 9.2%, and the business earns a profit of 26% on the capital invested in it. Net debt is 1.4 times EBITDA. The dividend yield is 0.8%. On the site's X-Ray Score it receives 48 out of 100.
Written with AI from public information and the filing figures on this page, then checked automatically for unsupported numbers. It can contain mistakes: read the company's own filings below before relying on it.
Price chart
52-wk range $160.07 – $485.22Volume 1,800,900Daily, split-adjusted
Vitals
Market cap$138.6B
52-week range$160.07 – $485.22
Volume (last day)1,800,900
P/E (TTM)16.7
EBIT / EV yield8.3%
Free-cash-flow yield9.3%
Dividend yield0.8%
Revenue (TTM)$153.6B
Net income (TTM)$8.6B
Operating margin9.2%
Return on capital25.9%
Debt incl. leases$32.8B
Cash & securities$7.8B
Debt = borrowings plus lease liabilities. Cash & securities = cash, equivalents and short-term marketable securities (long-term securities are not counted, so net cash can be understated for companies like Apple). Net debt = debt minus cash & securities. Source: latest SEC 10-Q/10-K. EBIT / EV yield = operating profit divided by market cap plus net debt.
Fair value estimate
$323model spread $262 – $354
Overvalued
−32.5% to fair value
Equal blend of three models: peer multiples, a fundamentals-adjusted multiple (growth, ROIC and margin) and a 10-year DCF scaled to the market's average. Earnings-power value (no growth) is a floor and not part of the blend. Model uncertainty is High, so the safety margin is 40%.
Multiples use through-the-cycle earnings (0.36x of the last twelve months)
Peak-cycle earnings: the current operating margin is more than 1.5x its 7-year average, so the fair value range is widened
Price $478
Undervalued < $194Fair $194 – $452Overvalued > $452
10-year DCF (market-scaled)
$479
Peer multiples
$188
Earnings power floor (not blended)
$92
Fundamentals-adjusted multiple
$301
Growth the price implies
15.1%/yr
A model estimate, not a price target or recommendation. Inputs: risk-free 5.09%, equity risk premium 4.23% (Damodaran). How it works.
What this means
Average business, priced high
Our models put fair value below today's price, so a lot of good news may already be in the price. A high score does not guarantee a good outcome; it shifts the odds a little. Use the checklist as a prompt for your own research.
Before you invest · decision checklist
Ticked boxes are filled in from our data; the rest are yours to answer.
The five-lens scan
Every score explained in one sentence, ranked against Energy peers. Open a lens to see the numbers behind it.
Valuation
Fair
59/100
Priced about in line with its sector.
See the numbers →
EBIT / EV yield8.3%
Free-cash-flow yield9.3%
Fair value vs price0.7×
Growth
Weak
26/100
Growing slower than most of its sector.
See the numbers →
Revenue growth (3y)-9.2%
EPS growth (3y)-22.2%
Growth consistency30%
Profitability
Fair
59/100
Returns on capital are typical for its sector.
See the numbers →
Return on invested capital25.9%
Operating margin9.2%
Gross profitability20.3%
Financial health
Weak
48/100
Balance sheet is more stretched than most peers.
See the numbers →
Piotroski F-Score7 / 9
Net debt / EBITDA1.4×
Interest cover8.7×
Dividends
Weak
41/100
Dividend is modest or less certain than peers.
See the numbers →
Dividend yield0.8%
Dividends vs free cash flow9%
Dividend growth-3.8%
Quarterly results: last 6 quarters
-3.6%
Mar '25
-10.9%
Jun '25
-0.8%
Sep '25
-1.7%
Dec '25
+8.5%
Mar '26
+53.8%
Jun '26
Revenue against the same quarter a year earlier. Latest quarter revenue $52.0B, diluted EPS $17.73.
Compare with peers
PSX Phillips 6650 VLO Valero Energy Corp43Other Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing companies by X-Ray Score.
Fundamentals checklist
● 5 Good · ● 5 Average · ● 6 BadCash quality
Earnings backed by cashGood
Free-cash-flow yieldGood
Risk models
Altman Z''Average
Piotroski F-ScoreGood
Growth
EPS growth (3y)Average
Free-cash-flow growth (3y)Bad
Revenue growth (3y)Bad
Growth consistencyBad
Balance sheet
Current ratioAverage
Net debt / EBITDABad
Interest coverBad
Valuation
Fair value vs priceAverage
EBIT / EV yieldGood
Profitability
Return on invested capitalGood
Operating marginBad
Gross profitabilityAverage
Each check is graded against the company's sector, not a fixed number. Checklist score 46/100.
Financials
| FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $120.0B | $177.5B | $148.4B | $138.9B | $132.7B |
| Operating income | $4.3B | $21.5B | $14.5B | $6.8B | $8.3B |
| Net income | $9.7B | $14.5B | $9.7B | $3.4B | $4.0B |
| Operating cash flow | $4.4B | $16.4B | $14.1B | $8.7B | $8.3B |
| Operating margin | 3.6% | 12.1% | 9.8% | 4.9% | 6.2% |
| Free cash flow | $2.9B | $13.9B | $12.2B | $6.1B | $4.8B |
| Diluted EPS | $15.24 | $28.12 | $23.63 | $10.08 | $13.22 |
Fiscal years, from SEC filings.
Technical summary
Daily
Bullish
12 bullish · 0 neutral · 4 bearish
Weekly
Strongly bullish
11 bullish · 0 neutral · 1 bearish
Monthly
Strongly bullish
7 bullish · 0 neutral · 1 bearish
Moving averages (daily)
| SMA 10 | 460.2 | Bullish |
| EMA 10 | 460.1 | Bullish |
| SMA 20 | 429.3 | Bullish |
| EMA 20 | 439.8 | Bullish |
| SMA 50 | 395.7 | Bullish |
| EMA 50 | 398.9 | Bullish |
| SMA 100 | 336.6 | Bullish |
| EMA 100 | 353.0 | Bullish |
| SMA 200 | 275.3 | Bullish |
| EMA 200 | 299.5 | Bullish |
Oscillators (daily)
| RSI (14) | 74.70 | Bearish |
| MACD (12, 26) | 25.21 | Bullish |
| Momentum (12) | 20.90 | Bullish |
| Stochastic %K (14) | 93.20 | Bearish |
| Williams %R (14) | -6.80 | Bearish |
| CCI (20) | 107.9 | Bearish |
Pivot points (classic, last session)
S3 457.3 | S2 463.9 | S1 471.0 | Pivot 477.6 | R1 484.7 | R2 491.3 | R3 498.4 |
Signals describe what the chart is doing, not what to do. Moving averages: price above the average is bullish. Oscillators use the usual thresholds (RSI 30/70, Stochastic 20/80, CCI ±100, Williams %R −80/−20; MACD and momentum above zero are bullish). Weekly and monthly views use closing prices only.
Dividends
Paid, last 12 months
4.00 USD
Yield on today's price
0.84%
Frequency
Quarterly
Next ex-dividend date
Not announced
| Ex-dividend date | Amount per share |
|---|---|
| 19 Aug 2026 | 1.0000 |
| 20 May 2026 | 1.0000 |
| 18 Feb 2026 | 1.0000 |
| 19 Nov 2025 | 1.0000 |
| 20 Aug 2025 | 0.9100 |
| 21 May 2025 | 0.9100 |
| 19 Feb 2025 | 0.9100 |
| 20 Nov 2024 | 0.9100 |
| 21 Aug 2024 | 0.8250 |
| 15 May 2024 | 0.8250 |
| 20 Feb 2024 | 0.8250 |
| 15 Nov 2023 | 0.8250 |
Ex-dividend dates and amounts from EODHD. Shown as declared, before tax.
MPC SEC filings
4 Aug 2026
10-QSEC EDGAR
Quarterly report
4 Aug 2026
8-KSEC EDGAR
Results of operations
29 Jun 2026
8-KSEC EDGAR
Other events
5 May 2026
10-QSEC EDGAR
Quarterly report
5 May 2026
8-KSEC EDGAR
Results of operations
1 May 2026
8-KSEC EDGAR
Shareholder vote results
13 Apr 2026
8-KSEC EDGAR
Entered a material agreement; Results of operations
16 Mar 2026
DEF 14ASEC EDGAR
Proxy statement
Where the numbers come from
Statements SEC EDGAR filings (10-K, 10-Q), quarters derived from year-to-date figures.
Prices end-of-day closes, split-adjusted.
Industry inputs beta, multiples and equity risk premium from Damodaran Online (NYU Stern).
StocksXray is for education only and is not financial advice. Scores and fair values are model estimates from public filings and carry uncertainty.