Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · US stock · price as of 16 Oct 2026
Key indicators
Price
$478.07
52-week range
$160.07 – $485.22
Market cap
$138.6B
P/E (trailing)
16.7×
EV / EBITDA
9.4×
Free-cash-flow yield
9.3%
Dividend yield
0.8%
Revenue (last 12 months)
$153.6B
Revenue growth (3y a year)
−9.2%
Operating margin
9.2%
Return on invested capital
25.9%
Net debt / EBITDA
1.4×
Fair value
Blended fair value$322.70 range $262 – $354
Versus priceOvervalued−33% to fair value
Peer multiples
$188.30
Fundamentals-adjusted multiple
$300.58
10-year DCF (market-scaled)
$479.20
Earnings power value (floor, not blended)
$92.00
Model uncertainty
High
X-Ray Score
48/ 100 · High confidence · ahead of 40% of sector peers
Valuation59
Growth26
Profitability59
Financial health48
Dividends41
Five-year price chart navy: price · brown: 200-day average · blue band: fair value range
Executive summary
Crude oil goes in and gasoline, diesel, jet fuel and other products come out at the refineries of Marathon Petroleum, which markets them to wholesale and retail customers. It operates a network of refineries across the United States and a midstream business that carries crude, refined products and natural gas liquids through pipelines, terminals and processing plants, largely held through the MPLX partnership. Customers include fuel distributors, branded stations, airlines, industrial users and petrochemical firms.
Revenue comes from refined product sales at prevailing market prices, alongside fees from the midstream operations. It was $153.6 billion over the last twelve months, but growth was -9.2% a year over the last three years, which means sales have contracted. The operating margin is 9.2%, and the business earns a profit of 26% on the capital invested in it. Net debt is 1.4 times EBITDA. The dividend yield is 0.8%.
StocksXray gives Marathon Petroleum Corp an X-Ray Score of 48 out of 100 (high confidence), ahead of 40% of the S&P 500 stocks in its sector. Its strongest lens is valuation (59) and its weakest is growth (26).
Our fair value blend is $322.70 (range $262.41 to $353.84). At $478.07 the stock trades 48% above that blend, so the label is "Overvalued" with high model uncertainty. Fair value is a range, not a price target.
XStocksXray
Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC)
Valuation history multiples at each fiscal year-end price; the last column uses today's price and the last twelve months
FY2021
FY2022
FY2023
FY2024
FY2025
Now
Price
$57.75
$107.78
$140.61
$134.90
$160.76
$478.07
Market cap
$36.8B
$55.6B
$57.5B
$46.0B
$49.2B
$138.6B
P/E
3.8×
3.8×
6.0×
13.4×
12.2×
16.7×
EV / revenue
0.5×
0.4×
0.5×
0.6×
0.6×
1.1×
EV / EBITDA
7.6×
3.1×
4.5×
7.6×
7.4×
9.8×
Price / free cash flow
12.7×
4.0×
4.7×
7.5×
10.3×
10.7×
Free-cash-flow yield
7.9%
25.1%
21.3%
13.3%
9.7%
9.3%
Price / book
1.4×
2.0×
2.4×
2.6×
2.8×
7.3×
Dividend yield
4.02%
2.31%
2.19%
2.51%
2.32%
0.84%
Fundamentals checklist ● 5 Good · ● 5 Average · ● 6 Bad · each check graded against the sector
Cash quality
Earnings backed by cash−9.1%Good
Free-cash-flow yield9.3%Good
Risk models
Altman Z score3.3×Average
Piotroski F-Score7 of 9Good
Growth
EPS growth (3y)−22.2%Average
Free-cash-flow growth (3y)−30.1%Bad
Revenue growth (3y)−9.2%Bad
Growth consistency30%Bad
Balance sheet
Current ratio1.3×Average
Net debt / EBITDA1.4×Bad
Interest cover8.7×Bad
Valuation
Fair value vs price0.7×Average
EBIT / EV yield8.3%Good
Profitability
Return on invested capital25.9%Good
Operating margin9.2%Bad
Gross profitability20.3%Average
XStocksXray
Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC)
Financials US$ millions, from SEC filings; last column is the last twelve months
Income statement
FY21
FY22
FY23
FY24
FY25
LTM
Revenue
119,983
177,453
148,379
138,864
132,699
153,577
Gross profit
9,975
25,782
19,813
12,624
13,253
19,191
Operating income
4,300
21,469
14,514
6,796
8,291
14,133
Net income
9,738
14,516
9,681
3,445
4,047
8,554
Diluted EPS ($)
15.24
28.12
23.63
10.08
13.22
28.63
Free cash flow
2,896
13,941
12,227
6,132
4,767
12,899
Gross margin
8.3%
14.5%
13.4%
9.1%
10.0%
12.5%
Operating margin
3.6%
12.1%
9.8%
4.9%
6.2%
9.2%
Net margin
8.1%
8.2%
6.5%
2.5%
3.0%
5.6%
Balance sheet
FY21
FY22
FY23
FY24
FY25
LTM
Total assets
85,373
89,904
85,987
78,858
83,955
94,310
Cash
5,291
8,625
5,443
3,210
3,672
7,768
Total debt
25,539
26,700
27,283
27,481
32,876
32,816
Equity
26,206
27,715
24,404
17,745
17,314
19,077
Dividend per share ($)
2.32
2.49
3.08
3.39
3.73
–
Revenue and net income US$ billions: navy revenue, teal net income
Every number comes from SEC filings, end-of-day prices and the StocksXray models described on the methodology page. The X-Ray Score ranks each metric against the company's own sector. Fair value blends three models and carries a typical error of about 40%, so treat it as a range. Analyst ratings, price targets and earnings-call summaries are not part of this report. Educational research, not financial advice; read the disclaimer.