Utilities · Independent Power Producers & Energy Traders · US stock · price as of 16 Oct 2026
Key indicators
Price
$103.75
52-week range
$93.36 – $188.71
Market cap
$22.0B
P/E (trailing)
24.9×
EV / EBITDA
12.3×
Free-cash-flow yield
1.6%
Dividend yield
1.8%
Revenue (last 12 months)
$33.1B
Revenue growth (3y a year)
−0.9%
Operating margin
6.1%
Return on invested capital
5.8%
Net debt / EBITDA
6.3×
Fair value
Blended fair value$148.22 range $114 – $159
Versus priceUndervalued+43% to fair value
Peer multiples
$105.15
Fundamentals-adjusted multiple
$122.36
10-year DCF (market-scaled)
$217.16
Earnings power value (floor, not blended)
$12.26
Model uncertainty
Medium
X-Ray Score
45/ 100 · Medium confidence · ahead of 39% of sector peers
Valuation79
Growth30
Profitability37
Financial health32
Dividends41
Five-year price chart navy: price · brown: 200-day average · blue band: fair value range
Executive summary
NRG Energy is an integrated power company that generates electricity and supplies it to homes and businesses. It runs a fleet of power plants fuelled mainly by natural gas and other sources, and its retail energy brands provide electricity, natural gas and home services to many households. Its customers also include commercial and industrial companies and grid operators who rely on its generation capacity.
Revenue comes from retail electricity and gas bills, power supplied to wholesale markets, and capacity payments. Over the last twelve months it was $33.1 billion, while revenue growth over the last three years was -0.9% a year, a small decline. The operating margin is 6.1%, and the business earns a profit of 6% on the capital invested in it. It carries net debt of 6.3 times EBITDA. The company pays a dividend with a yield of 1.8%.
StocksXray gives Nrg Energy, Inc. an X-Ray Score of 45 out of 100 (medium confidence), ahead of 39% of the S&P 500 stocks in its sector. Its strongest lens is valuation (79) and its weakest is growth (30).
Our fair value blend is $148.22 (range $113.76 to $158.81). At $103.75 the stock trades 30% below that blend, so the label is "Undervalued" with medium model uncertainty. Fair value is a range, not a price target.
XStocksXray
Nrg Energy, Inc. (NRG)
Valuation history multiples at each fiscal year-end price; the last column uses today's price and the last twelve months
FY2021
FY2022
FY2023
FY2024
FY2025
Now
Price
$38.08
$29.14
$49.36
$88.15
$157.70
$103.75
Market cap
$9.3B
$6.9B
$11.3B
$18.7B
$31.4B
$22.0B
P/E
4.3×
5.6×
–
17.7×
39.3×
24.9×
EV / revenue
0.6×
0.5×
0.7×
1.0×
1.4×
1.4×
EV / EBITDA
4.1×
5.3×
12.8×
7.5×
13.3×
12.3×
Price / free cash flow
41.7×
–
–
10.2×
41.0×
63.2×
Free-cash-flow yield
2.4%
−0.1%
−7.3%
9.8%
2.4%
1.6%
Price / book
2.6×
1.8×
3.9×
7.5×
18.7×
4.5×
Dividend yield
3.41%
4.80%
3.06%
1.85%
1.12%
1.80%
Fundamentals checklist ● 4 Good · ● 3 Average · ● 7 Bad · each check graded against the sector
Cash quality
Earnings backed by cash−1.8%Bad
Free-cash-flow yield1.6%Good
Risk models
Altman Z score0.6×Bad
Piotroski F-Score5 of 9Bad
Growth
EPS growth (3y)−8.1%Bad
Revenue growth (3y)−0.9%Bad
Growth consistency80%Average
Balance sheet
Current ratio1.0×Good
Net debt / EBITDA6.3×Average
Interest cover2.0×Bad
Valuation
Fair value vs price1.4×Good
EBIT / EV yield4.5%Average
Profitability
Return on invested capital5.8%Good
Operating margin6.1%Bad
Red flags
Dividend may be at risk — Dividends exceed free cash flow
XStocksXray
Nrg Energy, Inc. (NRG)
Financials US$ millions, from SEC filings; last column is the last twelve months
Income statement
FY21
FY22
FY23
FY24
FY25
LTM
Revenue
26,989
31,543
28,823
28,130
30,713
33,125
Gross profit
–
–
–
–
–
–
Operating income
3,341
2,018
384
2,424
1,845
2,015
Net income
2,187
1,221
-202
1,125
864
849
Diluted EPS ($)
8.93
5.17
-1.12
4.99
4.01
4.17
Free cash flow
224
-7
-819
1,834
766
348
Gross margin
–
–
–
–
–
–
Operating margin
12.4%
6.4%
1.3%
8.6%
6.0%
6.1%
Net margin
8.1%
3.9%
−0.7%
4.0%
2.8%
2.6%
Balance sheet
FY21
FY22
FY23
FY24
FY25
LTM
Total assets
23,182
29,146
26,038
24,022
29,140
39,940
Cash
250
430
541
966
4,708
162
Total debt
7,970
8,039
10,753
10,808
16,443
23,256
Equity
3,600
3,828
2,906
2,478
1,681
4,855
Dividend per share ($)
1.30
1.40
1.51
1.63
1.76
–
Revenue and net income US$ billions: navy revenue, teal net income
Margins blue gross, teal operating, brown net
Latest quarters
Mar 2025
Jun 2025
Sep 2025
Dec 2025
Mar 2026
Jun 2026
Revenue ($M)
8,585
6,740
7,635
7,753
10,256
7,481
Growth vs a year earlier
+15.6%
+1.2%
+5.7%
+13.7%
+19.5%
+11.0%
Net income ($M)
750
-104
152
66
125
506
Diluted EPS ($)
3.61
-0.62
0.69
–
0.52
2.31
XStocksXray
Nrg Energy, Inc. (NRG)
Peers in Independent Power Producers & Energy Traders
Every number comes from SEC filings, end-of-day prices and the StocksXray models described on the methodology page. The X-Ray Score ranks each metric against the company's own sector. Fair value blends three models and carries a typical error of about 40%, so treat it as a range. Analyst ratings, price targets and earnings-call summaries are not part of this report. Educational research, not financial advice; read the disclaimer.