Is Vistra Corp. (VST) undervalued or overvalued?

Our model estimates a fair value of about $83 against a price of $152.02 (Overvalued, -46% to fair value). It blends a 10-year DCF, sector multiples and earnings-power value and is a model estimate, not advice.

What is the X-Ray Score for VST?

Vistra Corp. has an X-Ray Score of 51 out of 100, built from valuation, growth, profitability, financial health and dividend lenses ranked against Utilities peers.

Where does the data for VST come from?

Financial statements come from SEC EDGAR filings, prices from exchange price feeds, and industry betas and equity risk premium from Damodaran Online (NYU Stern).

Vistra Corp. (VST)

Utilities · Electric Utilities · US stock · S&P 500 component

$152.02 ▼ -2.15 (1.39%)

At close 16 Oct 2026 · USD · Volume 5,206,300

Compare with EIX Historical data Research report SEC filings

Fair valueOvervalued

$83 −45.6% to fair value

$41fair band $50–$116$124

Day's range

$151.15 – $155.16

52-week range

$132.26 – $215.85

About Vistra Corp.

Vistra is an integrated power company that generates electricity and sells it to residential, commercial and industrial customers, mainly in Texas and other competitive markets in the United States. Its fleet includes natural gas, nuclear, coal and solar and battery assets. Revenue comes from selling power at wholesale and retail, along with payments for capacity, so earnings are affected by power prices and fuel costs.

Vistra Corp. generated $19.6 billion of revenue in the last twelve months, with sales that grew 4.3% a year over the past three years. Net debt to EBITDA is 3.5 times. The operating margin is 18.2% and the return on invested capital is 11%. The company pays a dividend with a yield of 0.6%. Its X-Ray Score is 59 out of 100.

Written with AI from public information and the filing figures on this page, then checked automatically for unsupported numbers. It can contain mistakes: read the company's own filings below before relying on it.

Price chart

Historical data & CSV

52-wk range $132.26 – $215.85Volume 5,206,300Daily, split-adjusted

Vitals

Market cap$51.6B

52-week range$132.26 – $215.85

Volume (last day)5,206,300

P/E (TTM)23.5

EBIT / EV yield5.0%

Free-cash-flow yield4.4%

Dividend yield0.6%

Revenue (TTM)$19.6B

Net income (TTM)$2.2B

Operating margin18.2%

Return on capital11.4%

Debt incl. leases$19.6B

Cash & securities$435M

Debt = borrowings plus lease liabilities. Cash & securities = cash, equivalents and short-term marketable securities (long-term securities are not counted, so net cash can be understated for companies like Apple). Net debt = debt minus cash & securities. Source: latest SEC 10-Q/10-K. EBIT / EV yield = operating profit divided by market cap plus net debt.

Fair value estimate

$83model spread $83 – $120

Overvalued −45.6% to fair value

Equal blend of three models: peer multiples, a fundamentals-adjusted multiple (growth, ROIC and margin) and a 10-year DCF scaled to the market's average. Earnings-power value (no growth) is a floor and not part of the blend. Model uncertainty is High, so the safety margin is 40%.

Multiples use through-the-cycle earnings (0.52x of the last twelve months)

Peak-cycle earnings: the current operating margin is more than 1.5x its 7-year average, so the fair value range is widened

Price $152

Undervalued < $50Fair $50 – $116Overvalued > $116

10-year DCF (market-scaled) · excluded

$315

Peer multiples

$73

Earnings power floor (not blended)

$2

Fundamentals-adjusted multiple

$92

Growth the price implies

2.9%/yr

A model estimate, not a price target or recommendation. Inputs: risk-free 5.09%, equity risk premium 4.23% (Damodaran). How it works.

What this means

Average business, priced high

Our models put fair value below today's price, so a lot of good news may already be in the price. A high score does not guarantee a good outcome; it shifts the odds a little. Use the checklist as a prompt for your own research.

Before you invest · decision checklist

I understand how this company makes money Business quality is average or better ✓ 57 The price is not above fair value $83 fair value Debt looks manageable 3.5× EBITDA Revenue has been growing 4.3% a year Profits are backed by cash There are no red flags none raised I know what share of my savings this would be

Ticked boxes are filled in from our data; the rest are yours to answer.

The five-lens scan

Every score explained in one sentence, ranked against Utilities peers. Open a lens to see the numbers behind it.

Valuation Fair

53/100

Priced about in line with its sector.

See the numbers →

EBIT / EV yield5.0%

Free-cash-flow yield4.4%

Fair value vs price0.5×

Growth Weak

48/100

Growing slower than most of its sector.

See the numbers →

Revenue growth (3y)4.3%

Growth consistency80%

Profitability Fair

60/100

Returns on capital are typical for its sector.

See the numbers →

Return on invested capital11.4%

Operating margin18.2%

Financial health Fair

53/100

Balance sheet is in typical shape for its sector.

See the numbers →

Piotroski F-Score4 / 9

Net debt / EBITDA3.5×

Interest cover3.1×

Dividends Weak

26/100

Dividend is modest or less certain than peers.

See the numbers →

Dividend yield0.6%

Dividends vs free cash flow14%

Dividend growth0.4%

Quarterly results: last 6 quarters

+34.5%

Mar '25

+10.5%

Jun '25

-20.9%

Sep '25

+13.5%

Dec '25

+32.7%

Mar '26

+3.6%

Jun '26

Revenue against the same quarter a year earlier. Latest quarter revenue $4.4B, diluted EPS $0.76.

Compare with peers

EIX Edison International71 EXC Exelon Corp66 ES Eversource Energy66 AEP American Electric Powe...63

Other Electric Utilities companies by X-Ray Score.

Fundamentals checklist

● 8 Good · ● 2 Average · ● 3 Bad

Cash quality

Earnings backed by cashGood

Free-cash-flow yieldGood

Risk models

Altman Z''Average

Piotroski F-ScoreBad

Growth

Revenue growth (3y)Good

Growth consistencyAverage

Balance sheet

Current ratioGood

Net debt / EBITDAGood

Interest coverGood

Valuation

Fair value vs priceBad

EBIT / EV yieldGood

Profitability

Return on invested capitalGood

Operating marginBad

Each check is graded against the company's sector, not a fixed number. Checklist score 66/100.

Financials

	FY21	FY22	FY23	FY24	FY25
Revenue	$17.7B	$15.6B	$14.8B	$17.2B	$17.7B
Operating income	−$1.5B	−$1.2B	$2.7B	$4.1B	$1.9B
Net income	−$1.3B	−$1.2B	$1.5B	$2.7B	$944M
Operating cash flow	−$206M	$485M	$5.5B	$4.6B	$4.1B
Operating margin	-8.6%	-7.5%	18.0%	23.7%	10.7%
Free cash flow	−$1.2B	−$816M	$3.8B	$2.5B	$1.3B
Diluted EPS	$-2.69	$-3.26	$3.58	$7.00	$2.18

Fiscal years, from SEC filings.

Technical summary

Daily

Bullish

8 bullish · 4 neutral · 4 bearish

Weekly

Neutral

6 bullish · 1 neutral · 5 bearish

Monthly

Neutral

3 bullish · 1 neutral · 4 bearish

Moving averages (daily)

SMA 10	156.8	Bearish
EMA 10	153.8	Bearish
SMA 20	148.0	Bullish
EMA 20	150.7	Bullish
SMA 50	144.7	Bullish
EMA 50	148.1	Bullish
SMA 100	150.0	Bullish
EMA 100	149.7	Bullish
SMA 200	154.2	Bearish
EMA 200	153.9	Bearish

Oscillators (daily)

RSI (14)	52.47	Neutral
MACD (12, 26)	3.58	Bullish
Momentum (12)	9.88	Bullish
Stochastic %K (14)	52.62	Neutral
Williams %R (14)	-47.38	Neutral
CCI (20)	37.66	Neutral

Pivot points (classic, last session)

146.4

148.8

150.4

Pivot

152.8

154.4

156.8

158.4

Signals describe what the chart is doing, not what to do. Moving averages: price above the average is bullish. Oscillators use the usual thresholds (RSI 30/70, Stochastic 20/80, CCI ±100, Williams %R −80/−20; MACD and momentum above zero are bullish). Weekly and monthly views use closing prices only.

Dividends

Paid, last 12 months

0.91 USD

Yield on today's price

0.60%

Frequency

Quarterly

Next ex-dividend date

Not announced

Ex-dividend date	Amount per share
21 Sep 2026	0.2300
22 Jun 2026	0.2290
20 Mar 2026	0.2280
22 Dec 2025	0.2270
19 Sep 2025	0.2260
18 Jun 2025	0.2250
20 Mar 2025	0.2240
20 Dec 2024	0.2220
20 Sep 2024	0.2200
18 Jun 2024	0.2180
19 Mar 2024	0.2150
19 Dec 2023	0.2130