XStocksXray

Research report · 16 October 2026

Vistra Corp. (VST)

Utilities · Electric Utilities · US stock · price as of 16 Oct 2026

Key indicators

Price	$152.02
52-week range	$132.26 – $215.85
Market cap	$51.6B
P/E (trailing)	23.5×
EV / EBITDA	13.1×
Free-cash-flow yield	4.4%
Dividend yield	0.6%
Revenue (last 12 months)	$19.6B
Revenue growth (3y a year)	4.3%
Operating margin	18.2%
Return on invested capital	11.4%
Net debt / EBITDA	3.5×

Fair value

Blended fair value$82.71 range $83 – $120

Versus priceOvervalued−46% to fair value

Peer multiples	$73.24
Fundamentals-adjusted multiple	$92.18
10-year DCF (market-scaled)	$315.14
Earnings power value (floor, not blended)	$2.27
Model uncertainty	High

X-Ray Score

51/ 100 · Medium confidence · ahead of 55% of sector peers

Valuation53

Growth48

Profitability60

Financial health53

Dividends26

Five-year price chart navy: price · brown: 200-day average · blue band: fair value range

Executive summary

Vistra is an integrated power company that generates electricity and sells it to residential, commercial and industrial customers, mainly in Texas and other competitive markets in the United States. Its fleet includes natural gas, nuclear, coal and solar and battery assets. Revenue comes from selling power at wholesale and retail, along with payments for capacity, so earnings are affected by power prices and fuel costs.

Vistra Corp. generated $19.6 billion of revenue in the last twelve months, with sales that grew 4.3% a year over the past three years. Net debt to EBITDA is 3.5 times. The operating margin is 18.2% and the return on invested capital is 11%. The company pays a dividend with a yield of 0.6%.

StocksXray gives Vistra Corp. an X-Ray Score of 51 out of 100 (medium confidence), ahead of 55% of the S&P 500 stocks in its sector. Its strongest lens is profitability (60) and its weakest is dividends (26).

Our fair value blend is $82.71 (range $82.71 to $120.38). At $152.02 the stock trades 84% above that blend, so the label is "Overvalued" with high model uncertainty. Fair value is a range, not a price target.

XStocksXray

Vistra Corp. (VST)

Valuation history multiples at each fiscal year-end price; the last column uses today's price and the last twelve months

	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	Now
Price	$21.05	$22.12	$37.76	$136.52	$160.63	$152.02
Market cap	$10.2B	$9.3B	$14.2B	$48.1B	$55.5B	$51.6B
P/E	–	–	10.5×	19.5×	73.7×	23.5×
EV / revenue	1.1×	1.4×	1.7×	3.7×	4.1×	3.6×
EV / EBITDA	82.2×	51.4×	6.0×	10.7×	18.9×	13.1×
Price / free cash flow	–	–	3.8×	19.4×	42.1×	22.9×
Free-cash-flow yield	−12.2%	−8.7%	26.7%	5.2%	2.4%	4.4%
Price / book	1.2×	1.9×	2.7×	8.6×	10.9×	9.4×
Dividend yield	–	3.27%	2.17%	0.64%	0.56%	0.60%

Fundamentals checklist ● 8 Good · ● 2 Average · ● 3 Bad · each check graded against the sector

Cash quality

Earnings backed by cash−6.8%Good

Free-cash-flow yield4.4%Good

Risk models

Altman Z score0.8×Average

Piotroski F-Score4 of 9Bad

Growth

Revenue growth (3y)4.3%Good

Growth consistency80%Average

Balance sheet

Current ratio1.0×Good

Net debt / EBITDA3.5×Good

Interest cover3.1×Good

Valuation

Fair value vs price0.5×Bad

EBIT / EV yield5.0%Good

Profitability

Return on invested capital11.4%Good

Operating margin18.2%Bad

XStocksXray

Vistra Corp. (VST)

Financials US$ millions, from SEC filings; last column is the last twelve months

Income statement	FY21	FY22	FY23	FY24	FY25	LTM
Revenue	17,700	15,631	14,779	17,224	17,738	19,596
Gross profit	–	–	–	–	–	–
Operating income	-1,515	-1,177	2,661	4,081	1,906	3,563
Net income	-1,274	-1,227	1,493	2,659	944	2,219
Diluted EPS ($)	-2.69	-3.26	3.58	7.00	2.18	6.47
Free cash flow	-1,239	-816	3,777	2,485	1,318	2,255
Gross margin	–	–	–	–	–	–
Operating margin	−8.6%	−7.5%	18.0%	23.7%	10.7%	18.2%
Net margin	−7.2%	−7.8%	10.1%	15.4%	5.3%	11.3%
Balance sheet	FY21	FY22	FY23	FY24	FY25	LTM
Total assets	29,683	32,787	32,966	37,770	41,550	42,603
Cash	1,325	455	3,485	1,188	785	435
Total debt	10,731	12,621	14,402	16,298	18,843	19,595
Equity	8,291	4,902	5,307	5,570	5,097	5,482
Dividend per share ($)	–	0.72	0.82	0.87	0.90	0.91

Revenue and net income US$ billions: navy revenue, teal net income

Margins blue gross, teal operating, brown net

Latest quarters

	Mar 2025	Jun 2025	Sep 2025	Dec 2025	Mar 2026	Jun 2026
Revenue ($M)	4,250	4,250	4,971	4,584	5,640	4,401
Growth vs a year earlier	+34.5%	+10.5%	−20.9%	+13.5%	+32.7%	+3.6%
Net income ($M)	-268	327	652	233	1,029	305
Diluted EPS ($)	-0.93	0.81	1.75	–	2.87	0.76

XStocksXray

Vistra Corp. (VST)

Peers in Electric Utilities

Company	X-Ray
VST · Vistra Corp.	51
EIX · Edison International	71
EXC · Exelon Corp	66
ES · Eversource Energy	66
AEP · American Electric Power Co...	63

Market Compass outlook for Utilities: Unfavourable (31/100). It blends regime history, macro sensitivity, momentum and valuation.

Returns

1 week	−5.9%
1 month	+6.1%
3 months	−3.6%
6 months	−6.7%
1 year	−27.5%
3 years	+376.0%
5 years	+825.3%

Technical summary

DailyBullish8 bullish · 4 neutral · 4 bearish

WeeklyNeutral6 bullish · 1 neutral · 5 bearish

MonthlyNeutral3 bullish · 1 neutral · 4 bearish

50-day / 200-day average	$144.74 / $154.17
52-week low / high	$132.26 / $215.85
Classic pivot, support and resistance	S2 148.76 · S1 150.39 · P – · R1 154.41 · R2 156.79

Recent dividends

Ex-dividend date	Amount per share
21 Sep 2026	$0.2300
22 Jun 2026	$0.2290
20 Mar 2026	$0.2280
22 Dec 2025	$0.2270
19 Sep 2025	$0.2260
18 Jun 2025	$0.2250

XStocksXray

Vistra Corp. (VST)

Strengths

Return on invested capital of 11.4% is ahead of 95% of its sector peers.
Revenue growth of 4.3% a year over three years is ahead of 72% of its sector peers.
Free-cash-flow yield of 4.4% is ahead of 98% of its sector peers.
Interest cover of 3.1× is ahead of 76% of its sector peers.
Net debt is only 3.5× EBITDA, ahead of 92% of its sector peers.

Risks and weak spots

Piotroski F-Score is weak against Utilities peers (4 of 9).
Fair value vs price is weak against Utilities peers (0.5×).
Operating margin is weak against Utilities peers (18.2%).
The Altman Z score of 0.8× is in the distress zone.
Current ratio of 1.0×: short-term liabilities exceed short-term assets.
The price is above our fair value range, so good news may already be in the price.

Latest SEC filings

Date	Form	Items
5 Oct 2026	8-K	1.01,2.03,9.01
24 Sep 2026	8-K	1.01,8.01,9.01
10 Sep 2026	424B5
10 Aug 2026	10-Q
7 Aug 2026	8-K	2.02,9.01
16 Jul 2026	8-K	1.01,2.03,9.01
14 Jul 2026	8-K	8.01
30 Jun 2026	8-K	1.01,2.03,9.01

How to read this report

Every number comes from SEC filings, end-of-day prices and the StocksXray models described on the methodology page. The X-Ray Score ranks each metric against the company's own sector. Fair value blends three models and carries a typical error of about 40%, so treat it as a range. Analyst ratings, price targets and earnings-call summaries are not part of this report. Educational research, not financial advice; read the disclaimer.