United States: economy, interest rate and stock market

3.88%   set by US Federal Reserve System. Last change: +0.25 pt on 17 Sep 2026. Over 12 months: −0.25 pt. As of 13 Oct 2026.

All countries: central bank interest rates. Rates move stocks through borrowing costs and the currency: rising rates usually weigh on rate-sensitive stocks and help banks, falling rates the opposite.

Risk-on   5 of 5 price checks on S&P 500 are positive, as of 16 Oct 2026.

4 or 5 positive = Risk-on, 2 or 3 = Mixed, 0 or 1 = Risk-off. Each check uses only prices up to that day, so the same rule can be run on history (below). It describes how investors are behaving in this market, not what happens next.

Context (not part of the score)

• Global risk gauge (Market Compass): Risk-on, 1 of 7 warning signals on.
• Breadth: 55% of the United States' stocks are above their own 200-day average.
• Oil is up 29% in three months. Fuels are a large part of the United States' exports, so export earnings benefit.
• The central bank has cut its rate by 0.25 points over twelve months. Easing supports borrowing and stock valuations, and can squeeze bank margins.
• Market Compass (Reflation regime) rates these US sectors highest right now: Energy (Favourable), Communication Services (Favourable), Information Technology (Favourable), Financials (Favourable).

How the rule would have done on the index, 2008-10-15 to 2026-10-16 (18 years)

The position is decided at one day's close and applied to the next day's return, so the rule never uses the future. Time out of the market earns nothing here. Limits: index price only (no dividends, no interest on cash), no trading costs or taxes, one market and one period, and a rule that did well or badly in the past can do the opposite next time. Hypothetical results, not a promise and not advice.

Risk-on setting: the screen looks for the strongest price momentum over the last six months (skipping the latest month) among stocks trading above their 200-day average. Chosen from the 300 most traded stocks in the United States, using prices up to 16 Oct 2026.

These are candidates to research, not recommendations. The screen reads prices only: it knows nothing about the companies' earnings, debt or valuation (the X-Ray Score and fair value columns are shown for context and are not used to choose), and a stock can fit the setting and still fall. Momentum screens tend to pick volatile stocks, so check the Volatility column. We cannot yet test this screen fairly on the past, because our price history only contains companies that are listed today, which flatters any screen. So instead of showing a backtest we record each day's picks and will judge the rule on what happens after the fact. Educational only, not financial advice.

Share of merchandise exports and imports by product group. ■ exports   ■ imports.

High-technology products are 24.3% of manufactured exports (2024).

What the trade mix suggests to watch

• Fuels are 17.3% of the United States' merchandise exports (and 6.2% of imports), so energy prices matter for what the country earns abroad.
• High-technology products are 24.3% of manufactured exports (2024), which links trade to the electronics and equipment cycle.
• Exports plus imports equal 25% of GDP, so the economy is mostly driven by domestic demand, with trade a smaller share.
• The current account was a deficit of 3.8% of GDP (2025): the country spends more abroad than it earns and relies on foreign capital to fill the gap.

These describe the structure of trade, using the figures above. They are not forecasts and not investment advice. Latest available year differs by group (usually 2024 or 2025).