XStocksXray

Research report · 16 October 2026

Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP)

Consumer Staples · Soft Drinks & Non-alcoholic Beverages · US stock · price as of 16 Oct 2026

Key indicators

Price	$34.62
52-week range	$24.53 – $34.71
Market cap	$47.2B
P/E (trailing)	33.1×
EV / EBITDA	21.6×
Free-cash-flow yield	4.2%
Dividend yield	2.7%
Revenue (last 12 months)	$20.1B
Revenue growth (3y a year)	5.7%
Operating margin	16.2%
Return on invested capital	5.0%
Net debt / EBITDA	7.5×

Fair value

Blended fair value$24.97 range $24 – $30

Versus priceOvervalued−28% to fair value

Peer multiples	$28.24
Fundamentals-adjusted multiple	$32.91
10-year DCF (market-scaled)	$13.75
Earnings power value (floor, not blended)	$10.00
Model uncertainty	Medium

X-Ray Score

43/ 100 · High confidence · ahead of 31% of sector peers

Valuation29

Growth70

Profitability32

Financial health42

Dividends54

Five-year price chart navy: price · brown: 200-day average · blue band: fair value range

Executive summary

Keurig Dr Pepper is a beverage company with coffee and soft drink businesses. It makes Keurig single-serve brewers and pods, and its soft drink brands include Dr Pepper, Canada Dry, Snapple and Mott's. Supermarkets, convenience stores, restaurants, offices and online retailers carry its drinks, which it produces and distributes through its own network and through bottling partners.

KDP earns revenue from coffee pods and brewers, packaged and bottled drinks, and syrup and concentrate supplied to other bottlers. Over the last twelve months it was $20.1 billion, growing at 5.7% a year across the last three years. The operating margin is 16.2%, and the business earns a profit of 5% on the capital invested in it. It carries net debt of 7.5 times EBITDA. A dividend is paid, with a yield of 2.7%.

StocksXray gives Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. an X-Ray Score of 43 out of 100 (high confidence), ahead of 31% of the S&P 500 stocks in its sector. Its strongest lens is growth (70) and its weakest is valuation (29).

Our fair value blend is $24.97 (range $24.07 to $30.11). At $34.62 the stock trades 39% above that blend, so the label is "Overvalued" with medium model uncertainty. Fair value is a range, not a price target.

XStocksXray

Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP)

Valuation history multiples at each fiscal year-end price; the last column uses today's price and the last twelve months

	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	Now
Price	$32.28	$31.88	$30.53	$30.21	$27.15	$34.62
Market cap	$46.1B	$45.5B	$43.0B	$41.3B	$37.0B	$47.2B
P/E	21.5×	31.6×	19.7×	28.8×	17.7×	33.1×
EV / revenue	4.5×	4.0×	3.6×	3.6×	3.0×	3.7×
EV / EBITDA	19.8×	21.7×	16.9×	21.1×	14.0×	22.9×
Price / free cash flow	18.8×	18.3×	47.6×	25.0×	24.6×	24.0×
Free-cash-flow yield	5.3%	5.5%	2.1%	4.0%	4.1%	4.2%
Price / book	1.8×	1.8×	1.7×	1.7×	1.5×	1.9×
Dividend yield	2.21%	2.43%	2.72%	2.95%	3.39%	2.66%

Fundamentals checklist ● 6 Good · ● 2 Average · ● 8 Bad · each check graded against the sector

Cash quality

Earnings backed by cash−1.3%Bad

Free-cash-flow yield4.2%Average

Risk models

Altman Z score0.2×Bad

Piotroski F-Score7 of 9Good

Growth

EPS growth (3y)14.8%Good

Free-cash-flow growth (3y)−15.4%Bad

Revenue growth (3y)5.7%Good

Growth consistency100%Good

Balance sheet

Current ratio0.5×Bad

Net debt / EBITDA7.5×Bad

Interest coverno interest costGood

Valuation

Fair value vs price0.7×Bad

EBIT / EV yield4.3%Average

Profitability

Return on invested capital5.0%Bad

Operating margin16.2%Good

Gross profitability11.3%Bad

XStocksXray

Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP)

Financials US$ millions, from SEC filings; last column is the last twelve months

Income statement	FY21	FY22	FY23	FY24	FY25	LTM
Revenue	12,683	14,057	14,814	15,351	16,603	20,090
Gross profit	6,977	7,323	8,080	8,529	8,999	9,923
Operating income	2,894	2,605	3,192	2,591	3,575	3,260
Net income	2,146	1,436	2,181	1,441	2,079	1,427
Diluted EPS ($)	1.50	1.01	1.55	1.05	1.53	1.05
Free cash flow	2,451	2,484	904	1,656	1,505	1,970
Gross margin	55.0%	52.1%	54.5%	55.6%	54.2%	49.4%
Operating margin	22.8%	18.5%	21.5%	16.9%	21.5%	16.2%
Net margin	16.9%	10.2%	14.7%	9.4%	12.5%	7.1%
Balance sheet	FY21	FY22	FY23	FY24	FY25	LTM
Total assets	50,598	51,837	52,130	53,430	55,459	87,619
Cash	567	535	267	510	1,026	1,517
Total debt	11,733	11,568	11,095	13,938	13,931	24,817
Equity	24,972	25,126	25,676	24,243	25,516	25,032
Dividend per share ($)	0.71	0.78	0.83	0.89	0.92	–

Revenue and net income US$ billions: navy revenue, teal net income

Margins blue gross, teal operating, brown net

Latest quarters

	Mar 2025	Jun 2025	Sep 2025	Dec 2025	Mar 2026	Jun 2026
Revenue ($M)	3,635	4,163	4,306	4,499	3,976	7,309
Growth vs a year earlier	+4.8%	+6.1%	+10.7%	+10.5%	+9.4%	+75.6%
Net income ($M)	517	547	662	353	270	142
Diluted EPS ($)	0.38	0.40	0.49	–	0.20	0.04

XStocksXray

Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP)

Peers in Soft Drinks & Non-alcoholic Beverages

Company	X-Ray
KDP · Keurig Dr Pepper Inc.	43
MNST · Monster Beverage Corp	75
PEP · Pepsico Inc	59
KO · Coca Cola Co	45

Market Compass outlook for Consumer Staples: Neutral (41/100). It blends regime history, macro sensitivity, momentum and valuation.

Returns

1 week	+9.0%
1 month	+11.0%
3 months	+14.6%
6 months	+32.4%
1 year	+32.6%
3 years	+29.0%
5 years	+12.8%

Technical summary

DailyBullish12 bullish · 0 neutral · 4 bearish

WeeklyStrongly bullish11 bullish · 1 neutral · 0 bearish

MonthlyStrongly bullish7 bullish · 1 neutral · 0 bearish

50-day / 200-day average	$31.38 / $29.25
52-week low / high	$24.53 / $34.71
Classic pivot, support and resistance	S2 33.92 · S1 34.27 · P – · R1 34.84 · R2 35.06

Recent dividends

Ex-dividend date	Amount per share
28 Sep 2026	$0.2300
26 Jun 2026	$0.2300
27 Mar 2026	$0.2300
2 Jan 2026	$0.2300
26 Sep 2025	$0.2300
27 Jun 2025	$0.2300

XStocksXray

Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP)

Strengths

Operating margin of 16.2% is ahead of 69% of its sector peers.
Revenue growth of 5.7% a year over three years is ahead of 84% of its sector peers.
Interest cover of no interest cost is ahead of 83% of its sector peers.
Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9: most of the nine accounting health tests pass.
Has raised its dividend for 7 years in a row.

Risks and weak spots

Earnings backed by cash is weak against Consumer Staples peers (−1.3%).
Altman Z score is weak against Consumer Staples peers (0.2×).
Free-cash-flow growth (3y) is weak against Consumer Staples peers (−15.4%).
Current ratio is weak against Consumer Staples peers (0.5×).
Net debt / EBITDA is weak against Consumer Staples peers (7.5×).
Fair value vs price is weak against Consumer Staples peers (0.7×).
Return on invested capital is weak against Consumer Staples peers (5.0%).
Gross profitability is weak against Consumer Staples peers (11.3%).

Latest SEC filings

Date	Form	Items
1 Oct 2026	8-K	8.01,9.01
28 Sep 2026	8-K	8.01
16 Sep 2026	8-K	8.01,9.01
1 Sep 2026	8-K	8.01,9.01
12 Aug 2026	8-K	5.02
10 Aug 2026	10-Q
6 Aug 2026	8-K	2.02,9.01
25 Jun 2026	8-K	5.02

How to read this report

Every number comes from SEC filings, end-of-day prices and the StocksXray models described on the methodology page. The X-Ray Score ranks each metric against the company's own sector. Fair value blends three models and carries a typical error of about 40%, so treat it as a range. Analyst ratings, price targets and earnings-call summaries are not part of this report. Educational research, not financial advice; read the disclaimer.