Moderna, Inc. (MRNA)
Health Care · Biotechnology · US stock · price as of 16 Oct 2026
Key indicators
| Price | $218.01 |
|---|---|
| 52-week range | $22.28 – $242.29 |
| Market cap | $86.8B |
| P/E (trailing) | – |
| EV / EBITDA | – |
| Free-cash-flow yield | −1.4% |
| Dividend yield | – |
| Revenue (last 12 months) | $2.2B |
| Revenue growth (3y a year) | −53.4% |
| Operating margin | −149.0% |
| Return on invested capital | −91.3% |
| Net debt / EBITDA | – |
Fair value
Fair value is not shown for this company.
X-Ray Score
Five-year price chart navy: price · brown: 200-day average · blue band: fair value range
Executive summary
Messenger RNA is the technology behind the medicines and vaccines that Moderna, a biotechnology company, develops. Its marketed products include a vaccine against the coronavirus that causes COVID and a vaccine for respiratory syncytial virus. Its research pipeline covers infectious disease, cancer and rare conditions. Customers are governments, health systems, pharmacies and distributors that purchase its vaccines.
Vaccine supply to governments and healthcare providers is the main source of revenue, together with some collaboration income. Revenue was $2.2 billion over the last twelve months and has changed at -53.4% a year across the last three years, a very steep decline. The operating margin is -149.0%, a large operating loss, and the business earns -91% on the capital invested in it. No dividend is paid.
StocksXray gives Moderna, Inc. an X-Ray Score of 13 out of 100 (medium confidence), ahead of 0% of the S&P 500 stocks in its sector. Its strongest lens is financial health (28) and its weakest is growth (1).
Valuation history multiples at each fiscal year-end price; the last column uses today's price and the last twelve months
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $253.98 | $179.62 | $99.45 | $41.58 | $29.49 | $218.01 |
| Market cap | $109.5B | $74.7B | $38.0B | $16.0B | $11.5B | $86.8B |
| P/E | 9.0× | 8.9× | – | – | – | – |
| EV / revenue | 5.3× | 3.4× | 4.3× | 2.8× | 3.2× | 36.9× |
| EV / EBITDA | 7.3× | 6.6× | – | – | – | – |
| Price / free cash flow | 8.2× | 16.3× | – | – | – | – |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 12.2% | 6.1% | −10.1% | −25.4% | −18.0% | −1.4% |
| Price / book | 7.7× | 3.9× | 2.7× | 1.5× | 1.3× | 12.8× |
| Dividend yield | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Fundamentals checklist ● 2 Good · ● 1 Average · ● 8 Bad · each check graded against the sector
Cash quality
Risk models
Growth
Balance sheet
Valuation
Profitability
Financials US$ millions, from SEC filings; last column is the last twelve months
| Income statement | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | LTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 18,471 | 19,263 | 6,848 | 3,236 | 1,944 | 2,228 |
| Gross profit | 15,854 | 13,847 | 2,155 | 1,772 | 1,076 | 521 |
| Operating income | 13,296 | 9,420 | -4,239 | -3,945 | -3,074 | -3,320 |
| Net income | 12,202 | 8,362 | -4,714 | -3,561 | -2,822 | -3,151 |
| Diluted EPS ($) | 28.29 | 20.12 | -12.33 | -9.28 | -7.26 | -8.02 |
| Free cash flow | 13,336 | 4,581 | -3,825 | -4,055 | -2,065 | -1,244 |
| Gross margin | 85.8% | 71.9% | 31.5% | 54.8% | 55.3% | 23.4% |
| Operating margin | 72.0% | 48.9% | −61.9% | −121.9% | −158.1% | −149.0% |
| Net margin | 66.1% | 43.4% | −68.8% | −110.0% | −145.2% | −141.4% |
| Balance sheet | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | LTM |
| Total assets | 24,669 | 25,858 | 18,426 | 14,142 | 12,338 | 10,961 |
| Cash | 6,848 | 3,205 | 2,907 | 1,927 | 2,595 | 1,723 |
| Total debt | – | – | – | 0 | 590 | 591 |
| Equity | 14,145 | 19,123 | 13,854 | 10,901 | 8,650 | 6,761 |
| Dividend per share ($) | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Revenue and net income US$ billions: navy revenue, teal net income
Margins blue gross, teal operating, brown net
Latest quarters
| Mar 2025 | Jun 2025 | Sep 2025 | Dec 2025 | Mar 2026 | Jun 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | 108 | 142 | 1,016 | 678 | 389 | 145 |
| Growth vs a year earlier | −35.3% | −41.1% | −45.4% | −29.8% | +260.2% | +2.1% |
| Net income ($M) | -971 | -825 | -200 | -826 | -1,343 | -782 |
| Diluted EPS ($) | -2.52 | -2.13 | -0.51 | – | -3.40 | -1.97 |
Peers in Biotechnology
| Company | X-Ray |
|---|---|
| MRNA · Moderna, Inc. | 13 |
| INCY · Incyte Corp | 81 |
| VRTX · Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc... | 55 |
| AMGN · Amgen Inc | 51 |
| REGN · Regeneron Pharmaceuticals,... | 50 |
Market Compass outlook for Health Care: Neutral (51/100). It blends regime history, macro sensitivity, momentum and valuation.
Returns
| 1 week | −3.1% |
|---|---|
| 1 month | +37.9% |
| 3 months | +266.5% |
| 6 months | +305.8% |
| 1 year | +686.5% |
| 3 years | +112.2% |
| 5 years | −28.5% |
Technical summary
| 50-day / 200-day average | $154.93 / $77.40 |
|---|---|
| 52-week low / high | $22.28 / $242.29 |
| Classic pivot, support and resistance | S2 192.59 · S1 205.30 · P – · R1 234.34 · R2 250.67 |
Strengths
No check stands out as a clear strength against its sector.
Risks and weak spots
- Free-cash-flow yield is weak against Health Care peers (−1.4%).
- Piotroski F-Score is weak against Health Care peers (3 of 9).
- Revenue growth (3y) is weak against Health Care peers (−53.4%).
- Growth consistency is weak against Health Care peers (30%).
- EBIT / EV yield is weak against Health Care peers (−4.0%).
- Return on invested capital is weak against Health Care peers (−91.3%).
- Operating margin is weak against Health Care peers (−149.0%).
- Gross profitability is weak against Health Care peers (4.8%).
Latest SEC filings
| Date | Form | Items |
|---|---|---|
| 30 Sep 2026 | 8-K | 5.02,7.01,9.01 |
| 1 Sep 2026 | 8-K | 1.01,2.03,3.02,8.01,9.01 |
| 31 Jul 2026 | 10-Q | |
| 31 Jul 2026 | 8-K | 2.02,9.01 |
| 8 Jul 2026 | 8-K | 5.02,7.01,9.01 |
| 11 May 2026 | 8-K | 5.03,5.07,9.01 |
| 1 May 2026 | 10-Q | |
| 1 May 2026 | 8-K | 2.02,9.01 |
How to read this report
Every number comes from SEC filings, end-of-day prices and the StocksXray models described on the methodology page. The X-Ray Score ranks each metric against the company's own sector. Fair value blends three models and carries a typical error of about 40%, so treat it as a range. Analyst ratings, price targets and earnings-call summaries are not part of this report. Educational research, not financial advice; read the disclaimer.