Materials · Paper & Plastic Packaging Products & Materials · US stock · price as of 16 Oct 2026
Key indicators
Price
$41.16
52-week range
$31.79 – $51.52
Market cap
$21.7B
P/E (trailing)
43.6×
EV / EBITDA
8.3×
Free-cash-flow yield
4.7%
Dividend yield
4.3%
Revenue (last 12 months)
$31.3B
Revenue growth (3y a year)
32.2%
Operating margin
4.7%
Return on invested capital
3.3%
Net debt / EBITDA
3.2×
Fair value
Blended fair value$44.26 range $37 – $53
Versus priceFair+8% to fair value
Peer multiples
$26.47
Fundamentals-adjusted multiple
$54.62
10-year DCF (market-scaled)
$51.69
Earnings power value (floor, not blended)
$16.21
Model uncertainty
Medium
X-Ray Score
52/ 100 · Medium confidence · ahead of 48% of sector peers
Valuation51
Growth76
Profitability42
Financial health35
Dividends58
Five-year price chart navy: price · brown: 200-day average · blue band: fair value range
Executive summary
Smurfit Westrock produces paper-based packaging, including corrugated boxes, containerboard, folding cartons and specialty packaging, for customers in food, consumer goods, e-commerce and industry. It combines forestry and recycling operations with paper mills and box plants across the Americas and Europe. The company was formed through a merger of two packaging groups and earns money by selling packaging, with results influenced by paper prices and input costs.
Over the latest twelve months the company reported revenue of $31.3 billion, with growth of 32.2% a year across three years. It reports an operating margin of 4.7%, with return on invested capital of 3%. Leverage, measured as net debt to EBITDA, is 3.2 times. A dividend is paid, with a yield of 4.3%. These figures describe past results and the present financial position only.
StocksXray gives Smurfit Westrock plc an X-Ray Score of 52 out of 100 (medium confidence), ahead of 48% of the S&P 500 stocks in its sector. Its strongest lens is growth (76) and its weakest is financial health (35).
Our fair value blend is $44.26 (range $36.54 to $52.70). At $41.16 the stock trades 7% below that blend, so the label is "Fair" with medium model uncertainty. Fair value is a range, not a price target.
XStocksXray
Smurfit Westrock plc (SW)
Valuation history multiples at each fiscal year-end price; the last column uses today's price and the last twelve months
FY2022
FY2023
FY2024
FY2025
Now
Price
$32.03
$36.53
$50.28
$37.56
$41.16
Market cap
$8.4B
$9.5B
$19.6B
$19.8B
$21.7B
P/E
8.1×
11.5×
61.3×
28.2×
43.6×
EV / revenue
0.6×
1.0×
1.5×
1.0×
1.1×
EV / EBITDA
3.5×
6.3×
13.1×
7.7×
8.3×
Price / free cash flow
16.6×
15.1×
1,150.5×
16.5×
21.3×
Free-cash-flow yield
6.0%
6.6%
0.1%
6.1%
4.7%
Price / book
78,129,252.3×
1.5×
1.1×
1.1×
1.2×
Dividend yield
4.21%
4.11%
3.76%
4.58%
4.34%
Fundamentals checklist ● 5 Good · ● 4 Average · ● 7 Bad · each check graded against the sector
Cash quality
Earnings backed by cash−6.2%Good
Free-cash-flow yield4.7%Average
Risk models
Altman Z score1.6×Bad
Piotroski F-Score7 of 9Good
Growth
EPS growth (3y)−30.5%Bad
Free-cash-flow growth (3y)33.6%Good
Revenue growth (3y)32.2%Good
Growth consistency100%Good
Balance sheet
Current ratio1.4×Average
Net debt / EBITDA3.2×Bad
Interest cover1.8×Bad
Valuation
Fair value vs price1.1×Average
EBIT / EV yield4.2%Average
Profitability
Return on invested capital3.3%Bad
Operating margin4.7%Bad
Gross profitability12.4%Bad
Red flags
Heavy dilution — Share count up more than 5% year on year
XStocksXray
Smurfit Westrock plc (SW)
Financials US$ millions, from SEC filings; last column is the last twelve months
Income statement
FY22
FY23
FY24
FY25
LTM
Revenue
13,509
12,093
21,109
31,179
31,326
Gross profit
3,272
3,054
4,195
6,043
5,618
Operating income
1,558
1,372
1,007
1,719
1,477
Net income
1,034
825
319
699
497
Diluted EPS ($)
3.96
3.17
0.82
1.33
0.94
Free cash flow
503
630
17
1,200
1,015
Gross margin
24.2%
25.3%
19.9%
19.4%
17.9%
Operating margin
11.5%
11.3%
4.8%
5.5%
4.7%
Net margin
7.7%
6.8%
1.5%
2.2%
1.6%
Balance sheet
FY22
FY23
FY24
FY25
LTM
Total assets
–
14,051
43,759
45,157
45,201
Cash
841
1,000
855
892
677
Total debt
–
3,747
13,595
13,773
14,164
Equity
0
6,158
17,360
18,327
18,036
Dividend per share ($)
1.35
1.50
1.89
1.72
1.76
Revenue and net income US$ billions: navy revenue, teal net income
Margins blue gross, teal operating, brown net
Latest quarters
Mar 2025
Jun 2025
Sep 2025
Dec 2025
Mar 2026
Jun 2026
Revenue ($M)
7,656
7,940
8,003
7,580
7,712
8,031
Growth vs a year earlier
+161.3%
+167.4%
+4.3%
+0.5%
+0.7%
+1.1%
Net income ($M)
384
-28
246
97
65
89
Diluted EPS ($)
0.73
-0.05
0.47
–
0.12
0.17
XStocksXray
Smurfit Westrock plc (SW)
Peers in Paper & Plastic Packaging Products & Materials
Every number comes from SEC filings, end-of-day prices and the StocksXray models described on the methodology page. The X-Ray Score ranks each metric against the company's own sector. Fair value blends three models and carries a typical error of about 40%, so treat it as a range. Analyst ratings, price targets and earnings-call summaries are not part of this report. Educational research, not financial advice; read the disclaimer.