XStocksXray

Research report · 16 October 2026

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH)

Consumer Discretionary · Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines · US stock · price as of 16 Oct 2026

Key indicators

Price	$15.05
52-week range	$13.63 – $25.13
Market cap	$7.0B
P/E (trailing)	9.4×
EV / EBITDA	8.0×
Free-cash-flow yield	−17.0%
Dividend yield	–
Revenue (last 12 months)	$10.2B
Revenue growth (3y a year)	26.6%
Operating margin	15.1%
Return on invested capital	7.9%
Net debt / EBITDA	5.5×

Fair value

Blended fair value$53.34 range $43 – $66

Versus priceData under review+0% to fair value

Peer multiples	$29.00
Fundamentals-adjusted multiple	$61.33
10-year DCF (market-scaled)	$69.69
Earnings power value (floor, not blended)	n/m
Model uncertainty	Medium

X-Ray Score

47/ 100 · Medium confidence · ahead of 32% of sector peers

Valuation61

Growth60

Profitability26

Financial health41

Dividends–

Five-year price chart navy: price · brown: 200-day average · blue band: fair value range

Executive summary

Three cruise brands sit under Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings: Norwegian Cruise Line, Oceania Cruises and Regent Seven Seas Cruises, which together span the mainstream, upper premium and luxury segments. Its ships sail to destinations around the world, carrying holidaymakers who book through travel agents or directly with the company. The group also operates private destinations that its ships visit, giving guests beach and leisure stops as part of the voyage.

Passenger ticket sales and onboard spending on drinks, dining, excursions and extras generate the revenue. Over the last twelve months the business brought in $10.2 billion, and it has grown at 26.6% a year across the last three years. The operating margin is 15.1%, and the business earns a profit of 8% on the capital invested in it. It carries net debt of 5.5 times EBITDA. No dividend is paid.

StocksXray gives Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. an X-Ray Score of 47 out of 100 (medium confidence), ahead of 32% of the S&P 500 stocks in its sector. Its strongest lens is valuation (61) and its weakest is profitability (26).

Our fair value blend is $53.34 (range $42.85 to $66.05). At $15.05 the stock trades 72% below that blend, so the label is "Data under review" with medium model uncertainty. Fair value is a range, not a price target.

XStocksXray

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH)

Valuation history multiples at each fiscal year-end price; the last column uses today's price and the last twelve months

	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	Now
Price	$20.74	$12.24	$20.04	$25.73	$22.32	$15.05
Market cap	$7.6B	$5.1B	$8.6B	$13.3B	$10.7B	$7.0B
P/E	–	–	51.4×	13.6×	24.3×	9.4×
EV / revenue	28.2×	3.7×	2.6×	2.8×	2.5×	2.1×
EV / EBITDA	–	–	12.2×	10.7×	9.2×	8.0×
Price / free cash flow	–	–	–	15.8×	–	–
Free-cash-flow yield	−42.5%	−30.6%	−8.7%	6.3%	−11.0%	−17.0%
Price / book	3.1×	74.9×	28.5×	9.3×	4.8×	2.7×
Dividend yield	–	–	–	–	–	–

Fundamentals checklist ● 5 Good · ● 3 Average · ● 6 Bad · each check graded against the sector

Cash quality

Earnings backed by cash−5.6%Average

Free-cash-flow yield−17.0%Bad

Risk models

Altman Z score-1.5×Bad

Piotroski F-Score7 of 9Good

Growth

Revenue growth (3y)26.6%Good

Growth consistency90%Average

Balance sheet

Current ratio0.2×Bad

Net debt / EBITDA5.5×Bad

Interest coverno interest costGood

Valuation

Fair value vs price3.5×Good

EBIT / EV yield7.0%Good

Profitability

Return on invested capital7.9%Bad

Operating margin15.1%Average

Gross profitability18.0%Bad

XStocksXray

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH)

Financials US$ millions, from SEC filings; last column is the last twelve months

Income statement	FY21	FY22	FY23	FY24	FY25	LTM
Revenue	648	4,844	8,550	9,480	9,828	10,154
Gross profit	-960	577	3,081	3,791	4,188	4,311
Operating income	-2,552	-1,552	931	1,466	1,561	1,532
Net income	-4,507	-2,270	166	910	423	761
Diluted EPS ($)	-12.33	-5.41	0.39	1.89	0.92	1.60
Free cash flow	-3,221	-1,574	-745	839	-1,170	-1,185
Gross margin	−148.2%	11.9%	36.0%	40.0%	42.6%	42.5%
Operating margin	−393.9%	−32.0%	10.9%	15.5%	15.9%	15.1%
Net margin	−695.5%	−46.9%	1.9%	9.6%	4.3%	7.5%
Balance sheet	FY21	FY22	FY23	FY24	FY25	LTM
Total assets	18,730	18,558	19,493	19,970	22,541	24,012
Cash	1,507	947	402	191	210	218
Total debt	12,447	13,622	14,059	13,100	14,606	15,035
Equity	2,433	69	301	1,425	2,210	2,573
Dividend per share ($)	–	–	–	–	–	–

Revenue and net income US$ billions: navy revenue, teal net income

Margins blue gross, teal operating, brown net

Latest quarters

	Mar 2025	Jun 2025	Sep 2025	Dec 2025	Mar 2026	Jun 2026
Revenue ($M)	2,128	2,517	2,938	2,244	2,331	2,641
Growth vs a year earlier	−2.9%	+6.1%	+4.7%	+6.4%	+9.6%	+4.9%
Net income ($M)	-40	30	419	14	105	223
Diluted EPS ($)	-0.09	0.07	0.86	–	0.23	0.48

XStocksXray

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH)

Peers in Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines

Company	X-Ray
NCLH · Norwegian Cruise Line Hold...	47
BKNG · Booking Holdings Inc.	69
EXPE · Expedia Group, Inc.	64
CCL · Carnival Corp Ltd.	57
ABNB · Airbnb, Inc.	51

Market Compass outlook for Consumer Discretionary: Neutral (53/100). It blends regime history, macro sensitivity, momentum and valuation.

Returns

1 week	−3.3%
1 month	+4.6%
3 months	−22.8%
6 months	−28.3%
1 year	−36.2%
3 years	−3.9%
5 years	−42.9%

Technical summary

DailyBearish2 bullish · 4 neutral · 10 bearish

WeeklyStrongly bearish0 bullish · 1 neutral · 11 bearish

MonthlyStrongly bearish0 bullish · 1 neutral · 7 bearish

50-day / 200-day average	$15.87 / $19.07
52-week low / high	$13.63 / $25.13
Classic pivot, support and resistance	S2 14.48 · S1 14.77 · P – · R1 15.54 · R2 16.02

XStocksXray

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH)

Strengths

Revenue growth of 26.6% a year over three years is ahead of 92% of its sector peers.
Interest cover of no interest cost is ahead of 76% of its sector peers.
Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9: most of the nine accounting health tests pass.

Risks and weak spots

Free-cash-flow yield is weak against Consumer Discretionary peers (−17.0%).
Altman Z score is weak against Consumer Discretionary peers (-1.5×).
Current ratio is weak against Consumer Discretionary peers (0.2×).
Net debt / EBITDA is weak against Consumer Discretionary peers (5.5×).
Return on invested capital is weak against Consumer Discretionary peers (7.9%).
Gross profitability is weak against Consumer Discretionary peers (18.0%).
The Altman Z score of -1.5× is in the distress zone.

Latest SEC filings

Date	Form	Items
15 Oct 2026	8-K	1.01,1.02,2.03,8.01,9.01
30 Sep 2026	8-K	7.01
3 Aug 2026	10-Q
30 Jul 2026	8-K	2.02,9.01
16 Jun 2026	8-K	5.02,5.07,9.01
29 May 2026	8-K	8.01
4 May 2026	8-K	2.02,9.01
4 May 2026	10-Q

How to read this report

Every number comes from SEC filings, end-of-day prices and the StocksXray models described on the methodology page. The X-Ray Score ranks each metric against the company's own sector. Fair value blends three models and carries a typical error of about 40%, so treat it as a range. Analyst ratings, price targets and earnings-call summaries are not part of this report. Educational research, not financial advice; read the disclaimer.