XStocksXray

Research report · 16 October 2026

Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd (RCL)

Consumer Discretionary · Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines · US stock · price as of 16 Oct 2026

Key indicators

Price	$277.68
52-week range	$222.22 – $350.59
Market cap	$74.4B
P/E (trailing)	17.2×
EV / EBITDA	13.9×
Free-cash-flow yield	−0.6%
Dividend yield	2.0%
Revenue (last 12 months)	$18.7B
Revenue growth (3y a year)	26.6%
Operating margin	27.3%
Return on invested capital	12.5%
Net debt / EBITDA	3.2×

Fair value

Blended fair value$478.18 range $399 – $547

Versus priceUndervalued+72% to fair value

Peer multiples	$287.98
Fundamentals-adjusted multiple	$459.17
10-year DCF (market-scaled)	$687.38
Earnings power value (floor, not blended)	n/m
Model uncertainty	High

X-Ray Score

48/ 100 · Medium confidence · ahead of 43% of sector peers

Valuation44

Growth79

Profitability38

Financial health42

Dividends38

Five-year price chart navy: price · brown: 200-day average · blue band: fair value range

Executive summary

Royal Caribbean Group operates cruise lines that carry holidaymakers on ships to destinations around the world. Its brands include Royal Caribbean International, Celebrity Cruises and Silversea Cruises, covering mainstream, premium and luxury sailings. It also develops private destinations for its guests. Customers are families, couples and groups who book cruises through travel advisers and online.

Revenue comes from cruise tickets and from onboard spending on drinks, dining, excursions, casinos and similar extras. Revenue was $18.7 billion over the last twelve months, with growth of 26.6% a year across the last three years. The operating margin is 27.3%, and the business earns a profit of 13% on the capital invested in it. Net debt is 3.2 times EBITDA. It pays a dividend with a yield of 2.0%.

StocksXray gives Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd an X-Ray Score of 48 out of 100 (medium confidence), ahead of 43% of the S&P 500 stocks in its sector. Its strongest lens is growth (79) and its weakest is dividends (38).

Our fair value blend is $478.18 (range $398.93 to $546.56). At $277.68 the stock trades 42% below that blend, so the label is "Undervalued" with high model uncertainty. Fair value is a range, not a price target.

XStocksXray

Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd (RCL)

Valuation history multiples at each fiscal year-end price; the last column uses today's price and the last twelve months

	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	Now
Price	$74.34	$47.79	$125.18	$224.06	$274.38	$277.68
Market cap	$18.7B	$12.2B	$35.4B	$62.5B	$75.2B	$74.4B
P/E	–	–	19.8×	20.5×	17.6×	17.2×
EV / revenue	24.2×	3.8×	4.1×	5.0×	5.3×	5.2×
EV / EBITDA	–	52.5×	13.1×	14.4×	14.5×	14.0×
Price / free cash flow	–	–	61.1×	31.3×	60.8×	–
Free-cash-flow yield	−21.9%	−18.3%	1.6%	3.2%	1.6%	−0.6%
Price / book	3.7×	4.2×	7.5×	8.3×	7.5×	7.3×
Dividend yield	–	–	–	0.42%	1.28%	1.98%

Fundamentals checklist ● 5 Good · ● 2 Average · ● 7 Bad · each check graded against the sector

Cash quality

Earnings backed by cash−5.3%Average

Free-cash-flow yield−0.6%Bad

Risk models

Altman Z score0.3×Bad

Piotroski F-Score8 of 9Good

Growth

Revenue growth (3y)26.6%Good

Growth consistency100%Good

Balance sheet

Current ratio0.2×Bad

Net debt / EBITDA3.2×Bad

Interest cover5.0×Bad

Valuation

Fair value vs price1.7×Good

EBIT / EV yield5.3%Average

Profitability

Return on invested capital12.5%Bad

Operating margin27.3%Good

Gross profitability20.5%Bad

XStocksXray

Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd (RCL)

Financials US$ millions, from SEC filings; last column is the last twelve months

Income statement	FY21	FY22	FY23	FY24	FY25	LTM
Revenue	1,532	8,840	13,900	16,484	17,935	18,682
Gross profit	-1,207	2,224	6,125	7,832	8,852	9,167
Operating income	-3,870	-766	2,878	4,106	4,910	5,104
Net income	-5,261	-2,156	1,697	2,877	4,268	4,398
Diluted EPS ($)	-20.89	-8.45	6.31	10.94	15.61	16.18
Free cash flow	-4,108	-2,229	580	1,997	1,236	-416
Gross margin	−78.8%	25.2%	44.1%	47.5%	49.4%	49.1%
Operating margin	−252.6%	−8.7%	20.7%	24.9%	27.4%	27.3%
Net margin	−343.4%	−24.4%	12.2%	17.5%	23.8%	23.5%
Balance sheet	FY21	FY22	FY23	FY24	FY25	LTM
Total assets	32,258	33,776	35,131	37,070	41,619	44,644
Cash	2,702	1,935	497	388	825	875
Total debt	21,090	23,391	21,452	20,076	21,345	22,836
Equity	5,086	2,869	4,724	7,563	10,037	10,236
Dividend per share ($)	–	0.00	0.00	0.95	3.50	5.00

Revenue and net income US$ billions: navy revenue, teal net income

Margins blue gross, teal operating, brown net

Latest quarters

	Mar 2025	Jun 2025	Sep 2025	Dec 2025	Mar 2026	Jun 2026
Revenue ($M)	3,999	4,538	5,139	4,259	4,452	4,832
Growth vs a year earlier	+7.3%	+10.4%	+5.2%	+13.3%	+11.3%	+6.5%
Net income ($M)	730	1,210	1,575	754	941	1,128
Diluted EPS ($)	2.70	4.41	5.74	–	3.48	4.20

XStocksXray

Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd (RCL)

Peers in Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines

Company	X-Ray
RCL · Royal Caribbean Cruises Lt...	48
BKNG · Booking Holdings Inc.	69
EXPE · Expedia Group, Inc.	64
CCL · Carnival Corp Ltd.	57
ABNB · Airbnb, Inc.	51

Market Compass outlook for Consumer Discretionary: Neutral (53/100). It blends regime history, macro sensitivity, momentum and valuation.

Returns

1 week	−1.6%
1 month	+11.2%
3 months	−2.4%
6 months	−1.6%
1 year	−9.0%
3 years	+222.0%
5 years	+227.4%

Technical summary

DailyNeutral7 bullish · 4 neutral · 5 bearish

WeeklyNeutral5 bullish · 1 neutral · 6 bearish

MonthlyNeutral3 bullish · 1 neutral · 4 bearish

50-day / 200-day average	$273.58 / $283.86
52-week low / high	$222.22 / $350.59
Classic pivot, support and resistance	S2 269.65 · S1 273.66 · P – · R1 284.22 · R2 290.77

Recent dividends

Ex-dividend date	Amount per share
17 Sep 2026	$1.5000
3 Jun 2026	$1.5000
6 Mar 2026	$1.5000
26 Dec 2025	$1.0000
25 Sep 2025	$1.0000
4 Jun 2025	$0.7500

XStocksXray

Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd (RCL)

Strengths

Operating margin of 27.3% is ahead of 92% of its sector peers.
Revenue growth of 26.6% a year over three years is ahead of 90% of its sector peers.
Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9: most of the nine accounting health tests pass.

Risks and weak spots

Free-cash-flow yield is weak against Consumer Discretionary peers (−0.6%).
Altman Z score is weak against Consumer Discretionary peers (0.3×).
Current ratio is weak against Consumer Discretionary peers (0.2×).
Net debt / EBITDA is weak against Consumer Discretionary peers (3.2×).
Interest cover is weak against Consumer Discretionary peers (5.0×).
Return on invested capital is weak against Consumer Discretionary peers (12.5%).
Gross profitability is weak against Consumer Discretionary peers (20.5%).
The Altman Z score of 0.3× is in the distress zone.

Latest SEC filings

Date	Form	Items
23 Sep 2026	8-K	8.01,9.01
20 Aug 2026	8-K	1.01,2.03,9.01
10 Aug 2026	424B5
7 Aug 2026	8-K	1.01,9.01
6 Aug 2026	424B5
28 Jul 2026	10-Q
28 Jul 2026	8-K	2.02,9.01
20 Jul 2026	8-K	5.02,7.01,9.01

Recent RCL news briefs

Oil prices stay high as conflict keeps supply tight, reports say 18 Oct 2026

How to read this report

Every number comes from SEC filings, end-of-day prices and the StocksXray models described on the methodology page. The X-Ray Score ranks each metric against the company's own sector. Fair value blends three models and carries a typical error of about 40%, so treat it as a range. Analyst ratings, price targets and earnings-call summaries are not part of this report. Educational research, not financial advice; read the disclaimer.