Consumer Discretionary · Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines · US stock · price as of 16 Oct 2026
Key indicators
Price
$345.12
52-week range
$253.04 – $357.84
Market cap
$79.0B
P/E (trailing)
51.0×
EV / EBITDA
29.4×
Free-cash-flow yield
2.6%
Dividend yield
0.2%
Revenue (last 12 months)
$12.5B
Revenue growth (3y a year)
11.1%
Operating margin
23.3%
Return on invested capital
34.3%
Net debt / EBITDA
4.0×
Fair value
Blended fair value$238.83 range $205 – $258
Versus priceOvervalued−31% to fair value
Peer multiples
$165.32
Fundamentals-adjusted multiple
$219.06
10-year DCF (market-scaled)
$332.10
Earnings power value (floor, not blended)
$42.74
Model uncertainty
Medium
X-Ray Score
40/ 100 · High confidence · ahead of 13% of sector peers
Valuation14
Growth64
Profitability59
Financial health27
Dividends32
Five-year price chart navy: price · brown: 200-day average · blue band: fair value range
Executive summary
Hilton is a global hospitality company that franchises, manages and licenses hotels under a family of brands, including Hilton, Conrad, Waldorf Astoria, DoubleTree, Hampton and Embassy Suites. Most properties are owned by outside investors, so Hilton supplies the brand, booking systems and the Hilton Honors loyalty programme while owners provide the buildings. Travellers book rooms for business and leisure, and hotel owners are its main direct customers.
Hilton collects fees from the hotels that use its brands, typically linked to room revenue, along with income from the few properties it owns or leases. Revenue is $12.5 billion over the last twelve months, rising 11.1% a year across the last three years. The operating margin is 23.3%, and the business earns a profit of 34% on the capital invested in it. It has net debt of 4.0 times EBITDA, and the dividend yield is 0.2%.
StocksXray gives Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. an X-Ray Score of 40 out of 100 (high confidence), ahead of 13% of the S&P 500 stocks in its sector. Its strongest lens is growth (64) and its weakest is valuation (14).
Our fair value blend is $238.83 (range $205.04 to $258.11). At $345.12 the stock trades 45% above that blend, so the label is "Overvalued" with medium model uncertainty. Fair value is a range, not a price target.
XStocksXray
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT)
Valuation history multiples at each fiscal year-end price; the last column uses today's price and the last twelve months
FY2021
FY2022
FY2023
FY2024
FY2025
Now
Price
$153.84
$125.05
$180.92
$246.25
$286.85
$345.12
Market cap
$43.2B
$34.6B
$47.8B
$61.6B
$68.3B
$79.0B
P/E
105.4×
27.6×
41.8×
40.1×
46.9×
51.0×
EV / revenue
8.7×
4.8×
5.5×
6.4×
6.6×
7.3×
EV / EBITDA
42.2×
18.7×
23.7×
28.4×
27.8×
29.4×
Price / free cash flow
584.2×
21.1×
26.6×
32.1×
33.7×
39.0×
Free-cash-flow yield
0.2%
4.7%
3.8%
3.1%
3.0%
2.6%
Price / book
–
–
–
–
–
–
Dividend yield
–
0.36%
0.33%
0.24%
0.21%
0.17%
Fundamentals checklist ● 4 Good · ● 3 Average · ● 8 Bad · each check graded against the sector
Cash quality
Earnings backed by cash−3.1%Bad
Free-cash-flow yield2.6%Bad
Risk models
Altman Z score0.0×Bad
Piotroski F-Score6 of 9Average
Growth
EPS growth (3y)10.5%Average
Free-cash-flow growth (3y)7.3%Average
Revenue growth (3y)11.1%Good
Growth consistency100%Good
Balance sheet
Current ratio0.6×Bad
Net debt / EBITDA4.0×Bad
Interest cover4.4×Bad
Valuation
Fair value vs price0.7×Bad
EBIT / EV yield3.2%Bad
Profitability
Return on invested capital34.3%Good
Operating margin23.3%Good
Red flags
Negative equity — Book equity is negative
XStocksXray
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT)
Financials US$ millions, from SEC filings; last column is the last twelve months
Income statement
FY21
FY22
FY23
FY24
FY25
LTM
Revenue
5,788
8,773
10,235
11,174
12,039
12,485
Gross profit
–
–
–
–
–
–
Operating income
1,010
2,094
2,225
2,370
2,693
2,915
Net income
410
1,255
1,141
1,535
1,457
1,584
Diluted EPS ($)
1.46
4.53
4.33
6.14
6.12
6.77
Free cash flow
74
1,642
1,795
1,917
2,028
2,029
Gross margin
–
–
–
–
–
–
Operating margin
17.4%
23.9%
21.7%
21.2%
22.4%
23.3%
Net margin
7.1%
14.3%
11.1%
13.7%
12.1%
12.7%
Balance sheet
FY21
FY22
FY23
FY24
FY25
LTM
Total assets
15,441
15,512
15,401
16,522
16,774
16,928
Cash
1,427
1,209
800
1,301
918
1,009
Total debt
8,766
8,747
9,196
11,151
12,363
13,343
Equity
-821
-1,102
-2,360
-3,727
-5,388
-6,303
Dividend per share ($)
0.00
0.45
0.60
0.60
0.60
0.60
Revenue and net income US$ billions: navy revenue, teal net income
Every number comes from SEC filings, end-of-day prices and the StocksXray models described on the methodology page. The X-Ray Score ranks each metric against the company's own sector. Fair value blends three models and carries a typical error of about 40%, so treat it as a range. Analyst ratings, price targets and earnings-call summaries are not part of this report. Educational research, not financial advice; read the disclaimer.